US Bank Earnings Q4 2025: The Big Six Post-Mortem
Complete analysis of Q4 2025 bank earnings: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley. Revenue, EPS, and what it means for bank stocks in 2026.
Published January 26, 2026
In this article
The Big Six just reported Q4 2025 bank earnings. Here's what matters.
Q4 2025 gave us clean prints across the board. Look past the headline numbers, though, and what stands out is the divergence. JPMorgan is spending like there's no tomorrow. Wells Fargo finally got its ankle bracelet off. Goldman completed its retreat from Main Street. And the market can't decide if any of this is good or bad.
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan earned $13.0B but spooked investors with $105B expense guidance for 2026
- Bank of America delivered 18% EPS growth and cut the efficiency ratio to 61%
- Wells Fargo asset cap removed after 7 years, unlocking balance sheet growth
- Goldman Sachs crushed estimates ($14.01 vs $11.62) as IB fees surged 21%
- Morgan Stanley proved the wealth + IB model works with 10% revenue growth
- Citigroup showed transformation progress, buying back $5.6B in stock at below book value
Let's break it down.
The Macro Setup
Before we get into individual names, let's set the stage. The U.S. economy came into Q4 doing that thing it's been doing for two years now: refusing to roll over. Labor markets softened but didn't crack. The consumer kept spending. Bank of America logged $255 billion in card volume, up 6% year-over-year. Inflation stayed sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious, but not hot enough to restart the hiking cycle.
The "soft landing" is looking less like a forecast and more like a fait accompli. But there's a catch. The spending isn't uniform. Affluent consumers are fine. They're booking travel, paying off balances, and pumping money into wealth management accounts. The lower end of the income spectrum? That's where you're seeing credit normalization: subprime auto delinquencies ticking up, credit card NCOs reverting to historical averages, not spiking above them. Wells Fargo's consumer NCOs actually declined 13% sequentially in Q4. This is normalization, not deterioration. The feared credit cycle hasn't materialized.
Jamie Dimon, predictably, played the role of the optimistic pessimist on JPMorgan's call. The economy is "resilient," he said, but markets might be "underappreciating" a list of risks: geopolitics, sticky inflation, asset prices disconnected from fundamentals. Classic Dimon. Say the right things about the economy, then remind everyone that you're still building a fortress.
The Numbers at a Glance
| Bank | Revenue | YoY | Net Income | EPS | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | $45.8B | +7% | $13.0B | $4.63 | Apple Card reserve hit masked a $5.23 clean quarter |
| Bank of America | $28.4B | +7% | $7.6B | $0.98 | 61% efficiency ratio, NII up 10% |
| Wells Fargo | $21.3B | +4% | $5.4B | $1.62 | Asset cap lifted, balance sheet unchained |
| Citigroup | $19.9B | +2% | $2.5B | $1.19 | Russia exit noise, $1.81 adjusted |
| Goldman Sachs | $13.5B | -3% | $4.6B | $14.01 | IB fees surged 21%, consumer exit done |
| Morgan Stanley | $17.9B | +10% | $4.4B | $2.68 | Wealth steady, equity trading +28% |
JPMorgan Chase: Spending Money to Make Money
Net income: $13.0B ($4.63/share) Revenue: $45.8B (+7%) View JPMorgan Q4 2025 Earnings Release
JPMorgan beat, but the stock got hit anyway. Why? The 2026 expense guide came in at $105 billion. The Street was expecting something closer to $100 billion. That $5 billion gap spooked people.
Here's the thing: Jamie Dimon doesn't care what the Street expected. He's building for 2030, not 2026. The spending is going into AI infrastructure, data centers, cybersecurity, and new branches. Is it expensive? Obviously. Is it the right call? Probably, if you believe scale advantages compound. Regional banks simply cannot match this level of investment. It's creating a widening moat that may force further industry consolidation.
The Apple Card acquisition dominated headlines. JPMorgan took on the entire portfolio from Goldman Sachs, booking a $2.2 billion reserve hit upfront. Excluding that charge, EPS would have been $5.23. That's the clean number.
Why do this deal? The Apple Card brings millions of prime-to-superprime borrowers into JPM's ecosystem. Goldman couldn't make money on these customers because Goldman doesn't have a consumer deposit franchise to cross-sell into. JPMorgan does. They'll fund the portfolio cheaper, manage credit better, and eventually sell these customers mortgages and wealth products. It's a classic patient capital play.
The one weak spot: investment banking fees dropped 5% to $2.35 billion. Management blamed timing on M&A closings. That's probably true, since Goldman and Morgan Stanley both posted big IB gains, but it's worth watching.
The balance sheet keeps growing. Average loans hit $1.32 trillion, up 12% year-over-year. This is a bank that's adding scale while others optimize.
Verdict: Still the best house in the neighborhood. The expense guide is aggressive, but this is a company that generates enough capital to self-fund its ambitions. Buy the dip.
Bank of America: The Boring Bet That Keeps Winning
Net income: $7.6B ($0.98/share, +18% YoY) Revenue: $28.4B (+7%) View Bank of America Q4 2025 Earnings Release
If JPMorgan is the flashy tech play, Bank of America is the index fund. It just compounds. The efficiency ratio hit 61%, improving almost 200 basis points year-over-year. Revenue grew faster than expenses. That's operating leverage, and it's the metric that matters in a world of rising costs.
NII came in at $15.8 billion, up 10%. Bank of America is the most asset-sensitive of the big banks, which hurt them during the zero-rate era but is paying off now. The secret weapon: a $945 billion average deposit base that's remarkably sticky. While competitors saw deposit flight during the 2023 crisis, BAC retained its position as the #1 retail deposit gatherer. As loans reprice higher and deposit betas stabilize, the spread widens. Management guided for another 5-7% NII growth in 2026, even with rate cuts. The key assumption: loan demand picks up as rates come down, offsetting yield compression.
The consumer franchise keeps doing consumer franchise things. 69% of sales were digital. The bank processed 4.3 billion digital logins in Q4. Average deposits hit $945 billion, making them the #1 retail deposit gatherer despite all the noise about cash sorting.
Verdict: The safest large-cap bank. Not exciting, but that's the point. Compound at 10-12% a year, collect your dividend, sleep well.
Wells Fargo: The Chains Come Off
Net income: $5.4B ($1.62/share) Revenue: $21.3B (+4%) View Wells Fargo Q4 2025 Earnings Release (PDF)
The quarter barely matters here. What comes next does.
The Fed removed the asset cap in June 2025. After seven years of regulatory purgatory following the fake accounts scandal, Wells Fargo can finally compete again. The cap locked total assets at roughly $1.95 trillion, which meant turning away deposits and limiting loan growth. That's over.
CEO Charlie Scharf has spent six years cutting costs, eliminating $15 billion in gross expenses. The efficiency gains are real. Full-year expense growth came in under 1%, even as the bank invested in infrastructure. Now they get to deploy that lean cost structure into an expanding balance sheet.
What does this mean practically? Wells can compete for large corporate deposits again. They can grow their trading book and expand inventory without managing to an artificial balance sheet ceiling. Average loans were already up 5% in Q4; expect that to accelerate. Average deposits grew 2%. The NII guide for 2026 is $50 billion, which feels conservative given the unlocked capacity. This is a lean cost structure (less than 1% expense growth) about to be deployed into an expanding balance sheet.
There's optionality here that doesn't exist at the other big banks. JPMorgan is already at scale. Bank of America is optimized. Wells Fargo is a growth story hiding inside a value multiple.
Verdict: The turnaround is entering phase two. Underowned and underappreciated. This is where the asymmetry is.
Citigroup: Progress Buried Under Noise
Net income: $2.5B ($1.19/share) Adjusted net income: $3.6B ($1.81/share) Revenue: $19.9B (+2%, or +8% adjusted) View Citigroup Q4 2025 Earnings Release (PDF)
Citi's quarter was messier than it needed to be. A $1.2 billion loss on the Russia consumer exit hit the headline number. Back that out and it was a solid quarter.
The good news: CEO Jane Fraser's transformation is working. The Services division, Citi's best business, posted strong growth on new client wins. Wealth management is getting traction. The bank exited Russia and continues to wind down non-core consumer franchises. Complexity is decreasing.
Capital is abundant. CET1 ended at 13.2%, and the bank bought back $5.6 billion in stock during Q4 alone. When you're trading below tangible book value, every dollar of buybacks creates immediate value for remaining shareholders: you're buying $1 of assets for $0.85. Management gets this and is being aggressive.
The bad news: it's still a show-me story. The market has heard "transformation" from Citi for years. Until revenue growth consistently outpaces the restructuring charges, the stock stays cheap.
Verdict: Deep value if the turnaround works. You're getting paid in buybacks while you wait.
Goldman Sachs: Back to What They're Good At
Net income: $4.6B ($14.01/share, crushing the $11.62 estimate) Revenue: $13.5B View Goldman Sachs Q4 2025 Earnings Release
Goldman's consumer banking experiment is officially over. The Apple Card is gone. Marcus lending is gone. The firm is back to doing what it does best: investment banking and trading.
And the core business is humming. IB fees rose 21% for the full year. Equity financing jumped 31%. Advisory fees climbed 34%. The IPO window reopened, private equity got back to deal-making, and Goldman was there to collect the fees.
Asset and Wealth Management provided the stability the firm needed during the lean years. Record management fees helped offset trading volatility. This is the balanced Goldman that David Solomon has been trying to build: still a capital markets powerhouse, but with a durable fee stream underneath.
Verdict: High-beta play on capital markets activity. If you're bullish on 2026 M&A and IPO volumes, Goldman is the most direct expression of that view.
Morgan Stanley: The Integrated Model Works
Net revenue: $17.9B (+10%) Net income: $4.4B ($2.68/share) View Morgan Stanley Q4 2025 Earnings Release (PDF)
Morgan Stanley keeps proving that the "wealth management + investment bank" model is the right structure for the modern era.
Investment banking revenue rose 23%, led by equity underwriting. The capital markets rebound benefited Morgan Stanley just as much as Goldman, but MS has the wealth management ballast that GS lacks.
Wealth Management fees climbed 11% on higher asset levels and positive flows. This is the annuity stream that smooths out the inherent volatility of trading and advisory.
Equity trading surged 28%, driven by prime brokerage. Prime is a beautiful business. You're essentially providing leverage to hedge funds, earning financing income that's more durable than directional trading profits.
Verdict: The highest-quality franchise among the two investment bank-heavy names. Premium valuation is justified.
Themes to Watch in 2026
1. The Technology Arms Race Is Real
JPMorgan's $105 billion expense guide is a signal, not an aberration. The GSIBs are spending tens of billions annually on AI, cybersecurity, and payments modernization at a pace that regional banks simply cannot match. Bank of America logged 4.3 billion digital logins in Q4 alone, with 69% of sales digitally enabled. This creates a moat. It also creates pressure: investors will demand that this spending shows up in either revenue growth or efficiency gains within a few years. The gap between the "haves" and "have-nots" in banking technology is widening.
2. Credit Is Normalizing, Not Deteriorating
The feared wave of credit losses hasn't materialized. Consumer NCOs are reverting to historical averages, not spiking above them. Commercial real estate? The feared CRE crisis has evolved into a manageable earnings headwind rather than a solvency event. Office properties remain stressed, but the decline in loan balances has slowed as lenders work through troubled exposures. Reserves look adequate across the GSIBs. This is normalization to pre-pandemic credit metrics, not the beginning of a cycle of deterioration.
3. NII Isn't Dead
The bear case was that rate cuts would crush net interest income. Q4 proved that's too simplistic. Here's the mechanism: banks are still repricing fixed-rate assets (loans and securities) that originated in the low-rate era. As these mature and roll over, they're replaced by higher-yielding instruments. Meanwhile, deposit betas (the percentage of rate hikes passed to depositors) are stabilizing. As the Fed signals cuts, banks can start lowering deposit rates, potentially expanding margins in late 2026. Bank of America guiding for 5-7% NII growth in a rate-cut environment tells you the "peak NII" thesis was wrong.
4. Basel III Endgame Clarity Is Coming
The big banks are sitting on mountains of excess capital, waiting for final rules. JPMorgan ended Q4 with a CET1 ratio of 14.5%. Citigroup: 13.2%. Bank of America: 11.4%. All well above regulatory minimums. Once there's clarity on the Basel III Endgame (likely a softened version of the original proposal), expect aggressive buybacks. The industry has been building capital buffers for a regulatory framework that keeps getting delayed. When the rules finalize, that capital gets unlocked.
5. M&A Is Back
The deal backlog is real. Sponsor activity is picking up. Cross-border M&A is resuming. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are best positioned to capture fees, but JPMorgan and Citi's advisory businesses will benefit too.
The Bottom Line
Q4 2025 was a clarifying quarter. The banking crisis of 2023 is history. Credit fears were overblown. The consumer is spending. Capital markets are open.
The differentiation now is strategic. JPMorgan is spending for dominance. Bank of America is compounding through efficiency. Wells Fargo is finally free to compete. Citi is grinding through a turnaround. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are riding the capital markets cycle.
For investors:
- Quality compounders: JPMorgan, Bank of America
- Deep value / turnaround: Citigroup, Wells Fargo
- Capital markets beta: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
The sector isn't cheap on absolute terms, but relative to the risk profile, it's fairly valued. The best opportunities are in the names with the most optionality. Wells Fargo if you believe in the post-cap growth story. Citi if you trust the transformation. Goldman if you're bullish on dealmaking.
The boring answer is also the right answer: JPMorgan and Bank of America remain the core holdings. Everything else is a satellite position depending on your risk appetite and time horizon.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which US bank had the highest earnings in Q4 2025?
JPMorgan Chase led all US banks with $13.0 billion in net income for Q4 2025, translating to $4.63 per share. Excluding a one-time $2.2 billion reserve charge for the Apple Card acquisition, adjusted EPS was $5.23. JPMorgan's revenue of $45.8 billion also topped the Big Six.
Why did Wells Fargo stock react to the asset cap removal?
The Federal Reserve's asset cap had restricted Wells Fargo's total assets to approximately $1.95 trillion since 2018, following the fake accounts scandal. The removal in June 2025 allows Wells Fargo to grow deposits, expand lending, and compete for large corporate clients again. This represents a fundamental change in the bank's growth trajectory after seven years of constraint.
What is net interest income (NII) and why does it matter for bank stocks?
Net interest income is the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments versus what they pay on deposits. It's typically the largest revenue source for traditional banks. In Q4 2025, Bank of America's NII grew 10% to $15.8 billion, while management guided for continued 5-7% growth in 2026 despite expected rate cuts.
How did Goldman Sachs perform in Q4 2025?
Goldman Sachs delivered a blowout quarter with EPS of $14.01, crushing the Street estimate of $11.62. Investment banking fees rose 21% for the full year, with equity financing up 31% and advisory fees up 34%. The firm also completed its exit from consumer banking by transferring the Apple Card portfolio to JPMorgan.
What is the outlook for bank stocks in 2026?
The outlook is cautiously optimistic. Key positives include reopening capital markets, M&A activity recovery, stabilizing credit quality, and potential Basel III Endgame regulatory relief that could unlock significant buyback capacity. The major banks are sitting on excess capital (JPM at 14.5% CET1, Citi at 13.2%) waiting for final rules. Key risks include sticky inflation, commercial real estate stress (manageable but ongoing), and potential consumer credit deterioration. JPMorgan and Bank of America are positioned as quality compounders, while Wells Fargo and Citigroup offer turnaround potential.
What was the most significant regulatory change for banks in 2025?
The removal of the Federal Reserve's asset cap on Wells Fargo in June 2025 was the most significant regulatory development. Imposed in 2018, this cap had effectively frozen Wells Fargo's balance sheet growth for seven years. The removal allows the bank to compete on equal footing with JPMorgan and Bank of America for deposits and lending market share.
Sources
Data and figures in this analysis are sourced directly from official company investor relations materials powered by AllMind:
- JPMorgan Chase Q4 2025 Quarterly Earnings
- Bank of America Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Wells Fargo Q4 2025 Earnings Supplement (PDF)
- Citigroup Q4 2025 Earnings Release (PDF)
- Goldman Sachs Q4 2025 Results
- Morgan Stanley Q4 2025 Earnings (PDF)
Anwaar Malik
This research is powered by AllMind. This analysis was synthesized using our deep research engine, which processes 6,800+ licensed premium datasets across earnings transcripts, regulatory filings, market and macroeconomic data, news, broker research, and alternative signals to surface investment-relevant insights. The views expressed represent a synthesis of quantitative signals and qualitative judgment.