The setup is less about the reported quarter and more about whether management can justify the market’s forward multiple. Because the Google-related economics barely begin in the period being reported, any upside surprise has to come from guidance, not backward-looking revenue, and that makes the stock vulnerable to a classic “good print, weak guide” outcome. If the company cannot show a clear step-up in the next quarter’s data-center run-rate, the current valuation leaves little room for patience.

The more interesting winner here is GOOG: it gets strategic optionality on TPU-adjacent custom silicon without needing to prove immediate revenue leverage, while MRVL takes on execution concentration and eventual dilution risk if the relationship scales. Second-order, the real competitive read-through is to AVGO and NVDA: if hyperscalers keep migrating incremental AI spend toward custom ASICs, merchant accelerator pricing power can compress at the margin over 6-18 months, but only if this becomes a broader capex pattern rather than a one-off design win.

Consensus may be overestimating how quickly this turns into monetizable revenue and underestimating how much the warrant structure dampens per-share upside. The key falsifier is management explicitly quantifying a sharp step-up in custom revenue for fiscal Q3 or an investor-day framework that implies a material ramp inside the next 1-2 quarters; absent that, the trade is likely to be a post-earnings fade rather than a breakout. Near term, the stock is priced for narrative acceleration, not just delivery.