Q4 2025 Pinnacle West Capital Corp Earnings Call

February 25, 2026

Operator: Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2025 Q4 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host, Amanda Ho. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

Speaker #1: Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2025 fourth quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are placed on a listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation.

Speaker #1: It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host, Amanda Ho. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Matthew. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings, recent developments, and operating performance.

Amanda Ho: Thank you, Matthew. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and webcast to review our Q4 and full year 2025 earnings, recent developments, and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman, President, and CEO, Ted Geisler, and our CFO, Andrew Cooper. Jacob Tetlow, COO, and Jose Esparza, SVP of Public Policy, are also here with us. First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will be using are available on our investor relations website, along with our earnings release and related information. Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Our annual 2025 Form 10-K was filed this morning.

Speaker #2: Our speakers today will be our chairman, president, and CEO, Ted Geisler, and our CFO, Andrew Cooper. Jacob Tetlow, COO, and Jose Esparza, SVP of public policy, are also here with us.

Speaker #2: First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will be using are available on our investor relations website, along with our earnings release and related information.

Speaker #2: Today's comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Our annual 2025 Form 10-K was filed this morning.

Speaker #2: Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language, as well as the risk factors and MDNA sections. Which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures.

Amanda Ho: Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language, as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections, which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through 4 March 2026. I will now turn the call over to Ted.

Speaker #2: A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through March 4th, 2026.

Speaker #2: I will now turn the call over to Ted.

Speaker #3: Thank you, Amanda, and thank you all for joining us today. In 2025, our team demonstrated strong results and made significant progress on our strategic objectives.

Ted Geisler: Thank you, Amanda, and thank you all for joining us today. In 2025, our team demonstrated strong results and made significant progress on our strategic objectives. We served record levels of demand with top-quartile reliability, provided customers with top-quartile customer experience, and managed our grid expansion plans with discipline. Although we made solid progress in 2025, our efforts are ongoing, and we remain committed to executing our strategy. Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue this approach with a particular focus on processing our rate case, executing our grid expansion plans, keeping rates affordable for customers, and finalizing commercial opportunities with new large customers. Turning to operations, I want to recognize the outstanding safety execution by our team. Safety remains our most important priority, and I'm proud of our team's relentless focus on providing safe, reliable service, particularly through the third hottest summer on record.

Speaker #3: We served record levels of demand with top quartile reliability, provided customers with top quartile customer experience, and managed our grid expansion plans with discipline.

Speaker #3: Although we made solid progress in 2025, our efforts are ongoing, and we remain committed to executing our strategy. Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue this approach with a particular focus on processing our rate case and executing our grid expansion plans, keeping rates affordable for customers, and finalizing commercial opportunities with new large customers.

Speaker #3: Turning operations, I want to recognize the outstanding safety execution by our team. Safety remains our most important priority and I'm proud of our team's relentless focus on providing safe, reliable service, particularly through the third hottest summer on record.

Speaker #3: In 2025, APS set a new system peak of 8,648 megawatts on August 7th, more than 400 megawatts higher than the prior year. Our generating fleet performed exceptionally well and Palo Verde operated at 100% summertime capacity factor.

Ted Geisler: In 2025, APS set a new system peak of 8,648 MW on 7 August, more than 400 MW higher than the prior year. Our generating fleet performed exceptionally well, and Palo Verde operated at 100% summertime capacity factor. Palo Verde remains the largest producing nuclear plant in the United States and recently received a 2025 INPO Excellence Award for achieving the highest levels of safety, reliability, and operational performance. This level of consistency underscores the strength of our team's operational excellence. Customer experience remains a key focus. In 2025, we made meaningful progress toward achieving industry-leading satisfaction. For example, we developed and deployed an AI-powered high-bill analyzer to help customers better understand their billing and energy usage, and efficiently address ways they can save on their energy bill. These improvements are resonating.

Speaker #3: Palo Verde remains the largest producing nuclear plant in the United States and recently received a 2025 INPO Excellence Award for achieving the highest levels of safety, reliability, and operational performance.

Speaker #3: This level of consistency underscores the strength of our team's operational excellence. Customer experience remains a key focus. In 2025, we made meaningful progress toward achieving industry-leading satisfaction.

Speaker #3: For example, we developed and deployed an AI-powered high-bill analyzer to help customers better understand their billing and energy usage and efficiently address ways they can save on their energy bill.

Speaker #3: These improvements are resonating. We ended the year in top quartile nationally among our peers for residential overall customer satisfaction and in the second quartile for business customers as measured by Eskelon.

Ted Geisler: We ended the year in top quartile nationally among our peers for residential overall customer satisfaction, and in the second quartile for business customers, as measured by Escalent. We also ranked in the first quartile nationally in J.D. Power's Utility Digital Experience Study. Our customer base is also becoming increasingly diverse, reflecting Arizona's evolving economy. Growth among commercial and industrial customers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, continues to drive strong economic activity across the state. These large load customers continue to accelerate their ramp schedules, as evidenced by our long-term sales growth of 5% to 7% through 2030. The U.S. Department of Commerce and Taiwan recently announced agreements expected to spur at least $250 billion of additional semiconductor investment in the United States.

Speaker #3: We also ranked in the first quartile nationally in JD Power's utility digital experience study. Our customer base has also become increasingly diverse. Reflecting Arizona's evolving economy, growth among commercial and industrial customers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, continues to drive strong economic activity across the state.

Speaker #3: These large load customers continue to accelerate their ramp schedules, as evidenced by our long-term sales growth of 5 to 7% through 2030. The US Department of Commerce and Taiwan recently announced agreements expected to spur at least $250 billion of additional semiconductor investment in the United States.

Speaker #3: In Arizona, TSMC continues to expand their footprint with its second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction already, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres recently acquired for future expansion and growth.

Ted Geisler: In Arizona, TSMC continues to expand their footprint, with its second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction already, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres recently acquired for future expansion and growth. We look forward to working with TSMC and the broader chip manufacturing sector as we expand grid infrastructure to support their rapid growth. At the same time, residential growth remains strong across our service territory. For the second consecutive year, we installed more than 34,000 new meters, the highest level in 20 years. We're ready to meet demand growth, and our strong execution is showing results. We finished over 400MW of APS-owned resources ahead of schedule, including new gas units at Sundance, the Agave Battery Storage Facility, and Ironwood Solar.

Speaker #3: We look forward to working with TSMC and the broader chip manufacturing sector as we expand grid infrastructure to support their rapid growth. At the same time, residential growth remains strong across our service territory.

Speaker #3: For the second consecutive year, we installed more than 34,000 new meters, the highest level in 20 years. We're ready to meet demand growth and our strong execution is showing results.

Speaker #3: We've finished over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources ahead of schedule, including new gas units at Sundance, the Agave Battery Storage Facility, and Ironwood Solar.

Speaker #3: The Red Hawk Gas expansion remains on track for completion in 2028 with ongoing preparations to support additional gas capacity of up to 2 gigawatts commencing in 2030.

Ted Geisler: The Red Hawk gas expansion remains on track for completion in 2028, with ongoing preparations to support additional gas capacity of up to 2 GW commencing in 2030. In parallel, we're closely monitoring progress of Transwestern Desert Southwest pipeline expansion, which has recently been upsized from 42 to 48 inches due to strong regional demand. These investments are critical to supporting Arizona's economic and population growth while maintaining strong grid reliability for our customers. Turning to regulatory matters, our rate case remains on track. Staff and intervener testimony is expected next month, with hearings scheduled to begin in May. We value our ongoing collaboration with the commission and stakeholders, and continue to work together to support Arizona's growth, reduce regulatory lag, and ensure appropriate cost allocation so that growth pays for growth. In closing, 2025 was a strong year of execution by our team.

Speaker #3: In parallel, we're closely monitoring progress of Transwestern, Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion which has recently been upsized from 42 to 48 inches due to strong regional demand.

Speaker #3: These investments are critical to supporting Arizona's economic and population growth while maintaining strong grid reliability for our customers. Turning to regulatory matters, our rate case remains on track.

Speaker #3: Staff and intervenor testimony is expected next month with hearings scheduled to begin in May. We value our ongoing collaboration with the Commission and stakeholders and continue to work together to support Arizona's growth, reduce regulatory lag, and ensure appropriate cost allocation so that growth pays for growth.

Speaker #3: In closing, 2025 was a strong year of execution by our team. We're meeting rising demand, investing for our customers, and positioning the company for long-term value creation.

Ted Geisler: We're meeting rising demand, investing for our customers, and positioning the company for long-term value creation. Our priorities for the year ahead remain clear: executing our mission to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable service to our customers, invest in baseload generation and transmission to serve growth, and achieve a constructive regulatory outcome that protects customer affordability while reducing regulatory lag. With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew to discuss our financial results and outlook going forward.

Speaker #3: Our priorities for the year ahead remain clear. Executing our mission to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable service to our customers. Invest in baseload generation and transmission to serve growth, and achieve a constructive regulatory outcome that protects customer affordability while reducing regulatory lag.

Speaker #3: With that, I'll turn it over to Andrew to discuss our financial results and outlook going forward.

Speaker #4: Thanks, Ted, and thanks again to everyone for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results.

Andrew Cooper: Thanks, Ted, and thanks again to everyone for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we released our Q4 and full year 2025 financial results. I'll walk through our performance for the period, highlight the key drivers, and then review our 2026 financial guidance, which we initially provided on our Q3 call. Starting with the Q4, we earned $0.13 per share, compared with a $0.06 loss in the Q4 2024. The Q4 result reflects the continued vitality of our service territory, our strong operational execution, and sustained cost management. Key drivers included favorable O&M versus last year, as well as continued robust sales growth. These positives were partially offset by milder than normal weather, higher financing costs, and pension and OPEB expenses.

Speaker #4: I'll walk through our performance for the period, highlight the key drivers, and then review our 2026 financial guidance, which we initially provided on our third-quarter call.

Speaker #4: Starting with the fourth quarter, we earned 13 cents per share compared with a 6-cent loss in the fourth quarter of 2024. The fourth quarter result reflects the continued vitality of our service territory, our strong operational execution, and sustained cost management.

Speaker #4: Key drivers included favorable O&M versus last year, as well as continued robust sales growth. These positives were partially offset by milder-than-normal weather, higher financing costs, and pension and OPEB expenses.

Speaker #4: For the full year, we delivered earnings of $5.05 per share, landing in the upper half of our updated guidance range. While this compares to $5.24 per share in 2024, the year-over-year decline was primarily weather-driven—a $0.71 year-over-year drag.

Andrew Cooper: For the full year, we delivered earnings of $5.05 per share, landing in the upper half of our updated guidance range. While this compares to $5.24 per share in 2024, the year-over-year decline was primarily weather-driven, a $0.71 year-over-year drag. The prior year benefited from an extremely hot summer that extended into the fall, whereas 2025 experienced, on average, closer to normal weather. Additional headwinds included financing costs, higher pension and OPEB expense, depreciation and amortization, and O&M.... Importantly, these headwinds were largely offset by strong underlying growth in our business. In Q4, we experienced 6.8% weather-normalized sales growth, driving full-year weather-normalized sales growth of 5%. This included 2% residential growth and 7.5% commercial and industrial growth for the year, reflecting continued economic expansion across our service territory.

Speaker #4: The prior year benefited from an extremely hot summer that extended into the fall, whereas 2025 experienced, on average, closer to normal weather. Additional headwinds included financing costs, higher pension and OPEB expense, depreciation amortization, and O&M.

Speaker #4: Importantly, these headwinds were largely offset by strong underlying growth in our business. In the fourth quarter, we experienced 6.8% weather-normalized sales growth, driving full-year weather-normalized sales growth of 5%.

Speaker #4: This included 2% residential growth and 7.5% commercial and industrial growth for the year, reflecting continued economic expansion across our service territory. In addition, customer growth remains a durable multi-year trend.

Andrew Cooper: In addition, customer growth remains a durable multi-year trend. In 2025, total customer growth was 2.4%, at the high end of our guidance range, as new businesses and new residents continue to decide to call Arizona home. This consistent, diversified customer and load growth provides a strong foundation for our long-term outlook. Looking ahead, we are reiterating all aspects of 2026 guidance provided on our Q3 2025 call, including our annual earnings range of $4.55 to $4.75 per share. Our weather-normalized sales growth guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at 4% to 6%, with extra high load factor C&I customers expected to contribute 3% to 5% of that growth.

Speaker #4: In 2025, total customer growth was 2.4%, at the high end of our guidance range, as new businesses and new residents continue to decide to call Arizona home.

Speaker #4: This consistent, diversified customer and load growth provides a strong foundation for our long-term outlook. Looking ahead, we are reiterating all aspects of 2026 guidance provided on our third quarter 2025 call, including our annual earnings range of $4.55 to $4.75 per share.

Speaker #4: Our weather-normalized sales growth guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at 4% to 6%, with extra high-load factor, CNI customers, expected to contribute 3% to 5% of that growth.

Speaker #4: Our longer-term sales growth guidance also remains unchanged at 5% to 7%, through 2030, recognizing the robust growth in our service territory. We continue to be laser-focused on cost efficiencies and our goal of declining O&M per megawatt-hour.

Andrew Cooper: Our longer-term sales growth guidance also remains unchanged at 5% to 7% through 2030, recognizing the robust growth in our service territory. We continue to be laser-focused on cost efficiencies and our goal of declining O&M per megawatt hour. In 2025, we successfully achieved a 3.3% year-over-year decrease and expect to further reduce our O&M per megawatt hour in 2026. Cost management is a priority, and we will continue to strive for operational excellence and efficiency through our lean culture and initiatives. We are also reaffirming our capital and financing plans. Our capital program remains firmly focused on reliability, grid resiliency, and meeting the growing needs of our customers. Consistent with that strategy, our rate-based growth guidance remains unchanged at 7% to 9% through 2028.

Speaker #4: In 2025, we successfully achieved a 3.3% year-over-year decrease and expect to further reduce our O&M per megawatt-hour in 2026. Cost management is a priority, and we will continue to strive for operational excellence and efficiency through our lean culture and initiatives.

Speaker #4: We are also reaffirming our capital and financing plans. Our capital program remains firmly focused on reliability, grid resiliency, and meeting the growing needs of our customers.

Speaker #4: Consistent with that strategy, our rate-based growth guidance remains unchanged at 7% to 9% through 2028. From a financing standpoint, we continue to execute a disciplined and balanced approach aligned with our balance sheet targets.

Andrew Cooper: From a financing standpoint, we continue to execute a disciplined and balanced approach aligned with our balance sheet targets. Our capital spending is supported by a thoughtful mix of debt and equity. Importantly, our 2026 equity needs are largely de-risked, with nearly $500 million already priced. We have also diligently focused on expanding our liquidity to ensure we can most effectively take advantage of financing opportunities throughout the year as our capital investment program continues to grow. To that end, we recently closed on the extension of our core credit facilities to 2031, an expansion of revolving borrowing capacity by $550 million. In closing, we delivered solid results in 2025, underpinned by strong execution and durable growth. We're excited about the opportunities ahead in 2026 and confident in our ability to execute our financial and operational plan with discipline.

Speaker #4: Our capital spending is supported by a thoughtful mix of debt and equity. Importantly, our 2026 equity needs are largely de-risked, with nearly $500 million already priced.

Speaker #4: We have also diligently focused on expanding our liquidity to ensure we can most effectively take advantage of financing opportunities throughout the year, as our capital investment program continues to grow.

Speaker #4: To that end, we recently closed on the extension of our core credit facilities to 2031 and expansion of revolving borrowing capacity by $550 million.

Speaker #4: In closing, we delivered solid results in 2025, underpinned by strong execution and durable growth. We're excited about the opportunities ahead in 2026 and confident in our ability to execute our financial and operational plan with discipline.

Speaker #4: We look forward to progressing through our rate case with continued engagement with all stakeholders to support safe, reliable, and affordable service for our customers.

Andrew Cooper: We look forward to progressing through our rate case with continued engagement with all stakeholders to support safe, reliable, and affordable service for our customers. This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Speaker #4: This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Speaker #5: Certainly. Everyone at this time will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone at this time.

Operator: Certainly. Everyone at this time will be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone at this time. We do ask that while posing your question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speakerphone, to provide optimum sound quality. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star one on your phone. Your first question is coming from Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is live.

Speaker #5: We do ask that while posing your question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speakerphone to provide optimum sound quality. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone.

Speaker #5: Your first question is coming from Nick Campanella from Barclays. Your line is live.

Speaker #6: Hi. Good morning, team. This is Fay for Nick today. Thanks for the update on taking our questions. Just really wanted to touch on the capacity growth, if I can, here.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Hi, good morning, team. This is Faye for Nick today. Thanks for the update and taking our questions. Just really wanted to touch on the capacity growth, if I can, here. Can you just update us on the latest thinking on the IRP planning, including timing this year? Generally, how should we think about the incremental transmission and gas generation opportunities, I guess, compared to what you disclosed here on slide 21?

Nicholas Campanella: Hi, good morning, team. This is Faye for Nick today. Thanks for the update and taking our questions. Just really wanted to touch on the capacity growth, if I can, here. Can you just update us on the latest thinking on the IRP planning, including timing this year? Generally, how should we think about the incremental transmission and gas generation opportunities, I guess, compared to what you disclosed here on slide 21?

Speaker #6: Can you just update us on the latest thinking on the IRP planning including timing this year and generally how should we think about the incremental transmission and gas generation opportunities?

Speaker #6: I guess compared to what you disclosed here on slide 21.

Speaker #7: Yeah. Hi, Fay. Thanks for joining us. Mid-year, we'll expect to file an updated 15-year integrated resource plan. So, that'll be a snapshot of our most recent thinking in terms of load and demand forecast, and the resource plan to be able to meet that.

Ted Geisler: Hi, Faye. Thanks for joining us. Mid-year, we'll expect to file an updated 15-year integrated resource plan. That'll be a snapshot of our most recent thinking in terms of load and demand forecast and the resource plan to be able to meet that. Of course, the near term and the action plan window, it'll be a bit more specific with respect to technology, resources, and locations. When you get beyond that sort of near-term 5-year window, then it's more directional in nature. The key is, it'll continue to show the robust and strong growth over the long term and the amount of generation and transmission needed to be able to serve this growth.

Ted Geisler: HI, thanks for joining us. Mid-year, we'll expect to file an updated 15-year integrated resource plan. That'll be a snapshot of our most recent thinking in terms of load and demand forecast and the resource plan to be able to meet that. Of course, the near term and the action plan window, it'll be a bit more specific with respect to technology, resources, and locations. When you get beyond that sort of near-term 5-year window, then it's more directional in nature. The key is, it'll continue to show the robust and strong growth over the long term and the amount of generation and transmission needed to be able to serve this growth.

Speaker #7: Of course, the near term and the action plan window, it'll be a bit more specific with respect to technology resources and locations. And then when you get beyond that sort of near-term five-year window, then it's more directional in nature.

Speaker #7: But the key is, it'll continue to show the robust and strong growth over the long term, and the amount of generation and transmission needed to be able to serve this growth.

Speaker #7: Of course, our capital plan right now only goes out through 2028. And so a lot of the growth to support TSMC's build-out, as well as data center ramping, goes beyond that period.

Ted Geisler: Of course, our capital plan right now only goes out through 2028. A lot of the growth to support TSMC's build-out, as well as data center ramping, goes beyond that period. The resource plan should be able to indicate the amount of generation still needed to be able to serve even what we've already committed to. Above and beyond that, we are still negotiating to be able to serve incremental data center demand from our subscription queue, which we talked about last quarter. That's not in the capital plan. To the extent that we're able to secure an agreement for incremental load to be able to serve a portion of that queue, that would be resources that would need to be built above and beyond what we've talked about.

Speaker #7: And the resource plan should be able to indicate the amount of generation still needed to be able to serve even what we've already committed to.

Speaker #7: But then, above and beyond that, we are still negotiating to be able to serve incremental data center demand from our subscription queue, which we talked about last quarter.

Speaker #7: That's not in the capital plan. And to the extent that we're able to secure an agreement for incremental load to be able to serve a portion of that queue, that would be resources that would need to be built above and beyond what we've talked about.

Speaker #7: And then, in addition to that, any further expansion for TSMC would also need to be considered, and would drive further generation or transmission expansion beyond what we've shown in the three-year window within the current capital forecast.

Ted Geisler: In addition to that, any further expansion for TSMC would also need to be considered and would drive further generation or transmission expansion beyond what we've shown in the 3-year window, within the current capital forecast.

Speaker #5: Great. That's super clear. Thanks for that. Maybe just a quick one on the credit metric update and the whole code debt percentage to total debt.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Great! That's super clear. Thanks for that. Maybe just a quick one on the credit metric update and the HoldCo debt percentage of total debt. Can you discuss the cadence to reach that mid-teens level target, and where are you at 2025 year-end metric landed?

Nicholas Campanella: Great! That's super clear. Thanks for that. Maybe just a quick one on the credit metric update and the HoldCo debt percentage of total debt. Can you discuss the cadence to reach that mid-teens level target, and where are you at 2025 year-end metric landed?

Speaker #5: Can you discuss the cadence to reach that mid-teens level target and where you 2025 year-end metric landed?

Speaker #7: Sure, Fay. It's Andrew. We're committed to keeping our hold code debt at a judicious level and that mid-teens level. I believe if you calculated it year-end, it was at 17%.

Andrew Cooper: Sure, thanks, Andrew. We're committed to keeping our HoldCo debt at a judicious level and that mid-teens level. You know, I believe if you calculated it at year-end, it was at 17%. You know, kind of within the range that we're targeting. As you look at the financing plan for 2026, the, you know, HoldCo debt levels are intended to be, you know, quite modest and stay, you know, within that bandwidth.

Speaker #7: So kind of within the range that we're targeting. And as you look at the financing plan for 2026, the hold code debt levels are intended to be quite modest.

Speaker #7: And stay within that bandwidth.

Speaker #5: Great. Thanks for all the update. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Great. Thanks for all the update. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Nicholas Campanella: Great. Thanks for all the update. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Speaker #8: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Shahr Paruza from Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Shahriar Pourreza from Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Speaker #9: Hey. Good morning, everyone. It's actually Alex on for Shahr. Thanks for taking our questions.

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Hey, good morning, everyone. It's actually Alex on for Shar. Thanks for taking our questions.

Speaker #10: Hey, Alex.

Andrew Cooper: Hey, Alex.

Speaker #9: Good morning. So just on the future sales growth of the five to seven annually over the next five years, can you just remind us how sticky that number is over the long term?

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Good morning. Just on the future sales growths of the 5 to 7 annually over the next 5 years, can you just remind us how sticky that number is over the long term? What are you assuming in your forecast? Is that just sort of the minimum take agreements you have in your large load contracts? If you were to sort of think it this way, you know, if customers were to ramp faster and take more power on over time, would that be a creative opportunity to that 5 to 7 forecast? Thanks.

Speaker #9: And also, what do you assume in your forecast? Is that just sort of the minimum take agreements you have in your large loan contracts?

Speaker #9: So if you were sort of think it this way, if customers were to ramp faster and take more power on over time, would that be a creative opportunity to that five to seven forecast?

Speaker #9: Thanks.

Speaker #7: Yeah, Alex. I think the way to think about that is that load forecast is based on existing demand that we have certainty in being developed or already in service within the service territory that we expect to grow.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Alex, I think the way to think about that is that load forecast is based on existing demand that we have certainty in being developed or already in service within the service territory that we expect to grow, as well as projects that are already in development or under construction. Therefore, there's upside to the extent that there's anything incremental added to that from either our uncommitted queue, further TSMC expansion, or other projects that haven't been announced yet. The growth forecast that we've outlined is really based on projects that we have a high degree of confidence and certainty in developing and we track that very closely.

Speaker #7: As well as projects that are already in development or under construction. Therefore, there's upside to the extent that there's anything incremental added to that from either our uncommitted queue, further TSMC expansion, or other projects that haven't been announced yet.

Speaker #7: But the growth forecasts that we've outlined are really based on projects that we have a high degree of confidence and certainty in developing, and we track that very closely.

Speaker #10: And just to add to that, it's Andrew. The cadence of that committed queue that we've got in our Salesforce goes—sales forecast goes through into the 2030s.

Andrew Cooper: Just to add to that, Andrew, the cadence of that committed queue that we've got in our sales forecast goes through into the 2030s. While we've given you the 5% to 7% through 2030, the full build-out of that existing capacity does have a runway beyond that. You know, we should also keep in mind that that ramp and the cadence between now and 2030 is born out of kind of our experience with these customers over the last several years and represents a pretty educated view of what that ramp looks like over the next several years.

Speaker #10: So while we've given you the 5, 7% through 2030, the full build-out of that existing capacity does have a runway. Beyond that, and it should also keep in mind that that ramp and the cadence between now and 2030 is born out of kind of our experience with these customers over the last several years.

Speaker #10: And represents a pretty educated view of what that ramp looks like over the next several years.

Speaker #9: Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And just on the EPS and the rate-based CAGR, you have out there. So as you sort of just look out to 2027 and beyond, how should we be thinking about the delta between the two?

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. Just on the EPS and the rate base CAGR you have out there. As you sort of just look out to 27 and beyond, you know, how should we be thinking about the delta between the two? Is sort of that 200 basis points the right figure, or could you see those two converge over time, just given the amount of opportunities you're seeing? Thanks.

Speaker #9: Is sort of that 200 basis points the right figure, or could you see those two converge over time just given the amount of opportunities you're seeing?

Speaker #9: Thanks.

Speaker #10: Yeah, Alex. For sure, as we get out through the rate case, I think we'll be looking at both the capital plan itself and what it means for the financing plan and therefore what our EPS trajectory looks like.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah, Alex, you know, for sure, as we get out through the rate case, I think, you know, we'll be looking at both the, you know, capital plan itself and, you know what makes the financing plan and therefore what our EPS trajectory, you know, looks like. You know, if you think about the rate base CAGR, it's going through 2028 right now. We rolled that forward in the Q3 call, you're really just beginning to see the impact of some of the projects that are in our long lead, kind of, you know, execution window. You heard Ted talk about Red Hawk on the call. It's a good example. A lot of the transmission projects in our strategic transmission plan also represent that.

Speaker #10: And so if you think about the rate-based CAGR, it's going through 2028 right now. And we roll that forward in the third quarter call, you're really just beginning to see the impact of some of the projects that are in our long lead kind of execution window.

Speaker #10: You heard Ted talk about Red Hawk on the call as a good example. A lot of the transmission projects in our Strategic Transmission Plan also represent that.

Speaker #10: And so as we continue to consider how to provide more transparency for longer around the capital plan, what that means for the rate-based CAGR, that'll then trickle through the rate case and our expectations around a formula rate that allows us more prompt recovery to give you more detail on what that means for financing and ultimately for the trajectory of our EPS.

Andrew Cooper: As we continue to consider, you know, how to provide more transparency for longer around the capital plan, what that means for the rate base CAGR, that'll then trickle through the rate case and our expectations around a formula rate that allows us more prompt recovery to give you more detail on what that means for financing and ultimately for the trajectory of our EPS. Ultimately, our goal remains to create a more linear trajectory there, born out of the formula rate.

Speaker #10: But ultimately, our goal remains to create a more linear trajectory there born out of the formula rate.

Speaker #9: Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Julien Dumoulin-Smith, from Jefferies. Your line is live.

Speaker #8: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Julian Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies. Your line is live.

Speaker #11: Hey, good morning, team. Nice you're done. Thank you for the time, appreciate it. A couple of things to—just hey, good morning, Ted. Just wanted to talk quickly about implications from the UNS case of late, especially the formula rate decision being set.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Hey, good morning, team. Nicely done. Thank you for the time. Appreciate it.

Andrew Cooper: Good morning, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: A couple of things to just... Hey, good morning, Ted. Just wanted to talk quickly, implications from the UNS case of late, especially the formula rate decision being set. Any thoughts, reactions on your front, in terms of read-throughs? Any two or three critical points that you'd flag here as it reads the APS? Again, I know it's delicate to comment here, but I wanna make sure we're all aligned on the same reads here. If you can comment both on the-

Speaker #11: Any thoughts or reactions on your front in terms of read-throughs? Any two or three critical points that you'd flag here as a read to APS?

Speaker #11: Again, I know it's delicate to comment here, but I want to make sure we're all aligned on the same reads here. If you can comment.

Speaker #11: Both on the concept of formula as well as the fair value piece.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah, of course.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: or the concepts of formula as well as the, fair value piece.

Speaker #7: Yeah, of course, Julian. No, fair question. Look, I think the headline from our read was it was generally constructive. But there are material differences between the situation for the UNS gas case and then APS.

Ted Geisler: Of course, Julien. Fair question. You know, look, I think the headline from our read was it was generally constructive. You know, there are material differences between the situation for the UNS Gas case and then APS. I'll just step through a few points on how we think about it. I mean, first, look, they got about 86% of their original revenue requirement ask, which results in over a 14% rate increase. That's pretty healthy. They got a formula rate with a post-test year plan. The commission rightfully recognized that through all the good work at the workshops last year, there was no need for a pilot, it's a secure formula rate for perpetuity. They have an ROE similar to their current. That said.

Speaker #7: But I'll just step through a few points and how we think about it. I mean, first, look, they got about 86% of their original revenue requirement ask, which results in over a 14% rate increase.

Speaker #7: That's pretty healthy. They got a formula rate with a post-test year plan. The commission rightfully recognized that through all the good work at the workshops last year, there was no need for a pilot.

Speaker #7: So it's a secure formula rate for perpetuity. And they have an ROE similar to their current. That said, we do disagree with the notion that you should have a ROE reduced at all as a result of the formula rate, and we'll continue to make that argument.

Ted Geisler: You know, we do disagree with the notion that you should have a ROE reduced at all as a result of the formula rate. We'll continue to make that argument. They still got a fairly healthy ROE consistent with what they've had before, plus the formula rate. You have to recognize some of the differences. You know, it's a gas utility in an area that doesn't experience near as much growth as what we're seeing. It's been 16 years since the last rate case filing, so a little bit difficult to make the argument that regulatory lag is impacting their ability to fund growth like we see. They certainly have a different risk profile, and the formula rate schedule was a little different than what we are proposing or would expect to work with the commission on securing.

Speaker #7: But they still got a fairly healthy ROE, consistent with what they've had before, plus the formula rate. But you have to recognize some of the differences to a gas utility in an area that doesn't experience near as much growth as what we're seeing.

Speaker #7: It's been 16 years since the last rate case filing, so it's a little bit difficult to make the argument that regulatory lag is impacting our ability to fund growth like we see.

Speaker #7: They certainly have a different risk profile and the formula rate schedule was a little different than what we are proposing or would expect to work with the commission on securing but what was proposed worked for UNS.

Ted Geisler: What was proposed worked for UNS. They agreed to it, maybe that works for their service territory. Again, I think the headline is generally constructive. It secures the first formula rate within the state and shows the direction that the state's heading, which is great. There are some differences between our service territories that we'll continue to advocate for.

Speaker #7: They agreed to it, and maybe that works for their service territory. So again, I think the headline is generally constructive. It secures the first formula rate within the state and shows the direction that the state's heading, which is great.

Speaker #7: But there are some differences between our service territories that we'll continue to advocate for.

Speaker #11: Yep, absolutely. Thank you for that. Appreciate it. And then just if I can keep going here in as much as you guys have this interesting 20 gigawatts of uncommitted load, the four and a half of committed, relative to the 25 system peak.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yep, absolutely. Thank you for that. Appreciate it. Just, if I can keep going here, inasmuch as you guys have this interesting 20 GW of uncommitted load, the four and a half of committed, relative to the 25 system peak. Just incredible backdrop. With that said, can you comment and reconcile a little bit against the IRP? I know. Look, I know it's coming midyear. I get that we're trying to jump ahead of it a little bit, but just trying to, like, decompose, especially the four and a half committed, against what's already in the forecast or even beyond the core forecast, but what would be incremental in that IRP?

Speaker #11: So just incredible backdrop. With that said, can you comment and reconcile a little bit against the IRP? I know, look, I know it's coming mid-year.

Speaker #11: I get that we're trying to jump ahead of that a little bit. But just trying to decompose especially the four and a half committed against what's already in the forecast or even beyond the core forecast, but what would be incremental in that IRP?

Speaker #11: Again, it's all kind of coming back to an eventual roll forward of your plan as well as what's truly incremental to the plan relative to the current years that you have disclosed.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: You know, again, it's all kind of coming back to an eventual roll forward of your plan, as well as, like, what's truly incremental to the plan relative to the current years that you have disclosed. I'm just trying to zero in. It seems like a material update here.

Speaker #11: Just trying to zero in. It seems like a material update here.

Speaker #7: Yeah, appreciate the question, Julian. The way I would characterize it is the IRP will consider known and committed customer demand. So it'll reflect with a longer range forecast what we expect the four and a half gigawatts of committed load to materialize into over the 15-year period as well as our, I'll call it, organic load growth that's above and beyond that four and a half gigawatts of committed high-load factor demand.

Ted Geisler: Appreciate the question, Julien. The way I would characterize it is, the IRP will consider known and committed customer demand. It'll reflect with a longer-range forecast, what we expect the 4.5 gigawatts of committed load to materialize into over the 15-year period, as well as our, I'll call it, organic load growth that's above and beyond that 4.5 gigawatts of committed high load factor demand. It'll also include our latest thinking in terms of TSMC and the related chip manufacturing schedule for both timing and potential expansion. What it will not include is any portion of the uncommitted queue that is in negotiation or yet to be contracted. That will all still remain as incremental demand above and beyond what we show in the IRP.

Speaker #7: It'll also include our latest thinking in terms of TSMC and the related chip manufacturing schedule for both timing and potential expansion. What it will not include is any portion of the uncommitted queue that is in negotiation or yet to be contracted.

Speaker #7: So that will all still remain as incremental demand above and beyond what we show in the IRP. So I guess just summing it up, the IRP will give us the best line of sight for how the four and a half gigawatts of high-load factor demand will materialize over the 15-year period, plus our view on the organic load growth such as residential, etc.

Ted Geisler: I guess just summing it up, the IRP will give us the best line of sight for how the 4.5 GW of high load factor demand will materialize over the 15-year period, plus our view on the organic load growth, such as residential, et cetera. Anything that we contract from the uncommitted queue, which we're actively working on, will be incremental to that, even above and beyond what we show in the IRP.

Speaker #7: And then anything that we contract from the uncommitted queue, which we're actively working on, will be incremental to that even above and beyond what we show in the IRP.

Speaker #11: Right, absolutely. And then, just to close the loop on that, I mean, where are you in terms of what's in the committed versus uncommitted?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Right. Absolutely. Just to close the loop on that, I mean, where are you in terms of what's in the committed versus uncommitted? I imagine the bulk of the committed is TSMC, but can you break that down a little bit and maybe even comment a little bit on, you know, where you stand on kind of translating further of the uncommitted into the, into the committed bucket? Like, any potential that moves from one bucket into the other prior to that IRP, even?

Speaker #11: I imagine the bulk of the committed is TSMC, but can you break that down a little bit and maybe even comment a little bit on where you stand on kind of translating further of the uncommitted into the committed bucket?

Speaker #11: Any potential that that moves from one bucket into the other prior to that IRP even?

Speaker #7: Yeah, I'd say the majority of that committed is still a healthy amount of high-load factor customers that are data centers or related that we have committed to over the past couple of years and are actively in build-out or ramping.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, I'd say the majority of that committed is still a healthy amount of high load factor customers that are data centers or related, that we have committed to over the past couple of years and are actively in build-out or ramping. TSMC is certainly a material portion of that, but the 4.5 gigawatts does not include any potential expansion of TSMC. We'll continue to work with them on their plans for any acceleration or expansion. That would be above and beyond the 4.5 gigawatts. As we said in the last quarter, we did bring forward an opportunity to the uncommitted queue to evaluate through our subscription model. Those negotiations are ongoing.

Speaker #7: TSMC is certainly a material portion of that, but the four and a half gigawatts does not include any potential expansion of TSMC. And we'll continue to work with them on their plans for any acceleration or expansion so that would be above and beyond the four and a half gigawatts.

Speaker #7: But as we said in the last quarter, we did bring forward an opportunity to the uncommitted queue to evaluate through our subscription model. Those negotiations are ongoing.

Speaker #7: To the extent that that is finalized ahead of the IRP, it may be included, but there's also likelihood that it would be incremental to the IRP. We would aim to be able to file an agreement with our commission for any successful negotiations of that subscription model this year.

Ted Geisler: To the extent that that is finalized ahead of the IRP, it may be included, but there's also a likelihood that it would be incremental to the IRP. We would aim to be able to file an agreement with our commission for any successful negotiations of that subscription model this year.

Speaker #11: Yeah, no, good reminders. And thank you. All right, I'll leave it there. Thanks again. All the best, all right? Speak to you soon.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yeah. No, good reminders, and thank you. All right, I'll leave it there. Thanks again.

Ted Geisler: Thanks, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: All the best. All right, speak to you soon.

Speaker #1: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Your line is live.

Speaker #12: Hey, good morning.

Paul Patterson: Hey, good morning.

Speaker #7: Good morning, Paul.

Ted Geisler: Morning, Paul.

Paul Patterson: Just, I know, you know, we've got staff and intervener testimony coming up here, but I'm wondering, given all the discussions sort of happening there in Arizona and what have you, were there any thoughts about maybe, and given the fact that we've got now the ARAM from the formula stuff from UNS? Are there any thoughts about maybe potentially a settlement on the case? I mean, I know, like I said, we have staff coming up and interveners, but I just want any thoughts about that. Has there been any thought about that or discussion with that?

Speaker #12: So just I know we've got staff and intervenor testimony coming up here, but I'm wondering, given all the discussions sort of happening there in Arizona and what have you, is there are there any thoughts about maybe and given the fact that we've got now the ARM from the formula stuff from UNS, what are there any thoughts about maybe potentially a settlement on the case?

Speaker #12: I mean, I know, like I said, we have staff coming up and intervenors, but just any thoughts about that? Has there been any thought about that or discussion about that?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Paul, I appreciate the question. I'd say at this point, we're focused on processing the case and the traditional manner. We always remain open to settlements and the company actually has a long track record of successful settlements in this jurisdiction.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Paul, I appreciate the question. I'd say at this point, we're focused on processing the case in the traditional manner. We always remain open to settlements, and the company actually has a long track record of successful settlements in this jurisdiction. You know, this case has some unique aspects to it. One is making sure that we align on the mechanics of implementing the formula rate, two is the importance of getting the rate design changes agreed to for the new high load factor tariff. Those would be well served in the traditional hearing process. We've demonstrated successfully to be able to achieve a constructive outcome in the last rate case through the hearing process, you know, we think that's a viable path for us to once again achieve a constructive outcome.

Speaker #7: But this case, as some unique aspects to it, one is making sure that we align on the mechanics of implementing the formula rate. And two is the importance of getting the rate design changes agreed to for the new high-load factor tariff.

Speaker #7: And those would be well served in the traditional hearing process. We've demonstrated successfully to be able to achieve a constructive outcome in the last rate case through the hearing process.

Speaker #7: And so we think that’s a viable path for us to once again achieve a constructive outcome. So, at this point, we’re focused on the traditional format.

Ted Geisler: At this point, we're focused on the traditional format. We always remain open to settlement, but that's not something I would count on for this case.

Speaker #7: We always remain open to settlement, but that's not something I would count on for this case.

Speaker #12: Okay, fair enough. And then just finally on there was a nuke conference yesterday or hearing, what have you, at the commission. And I wasn't able to listen to a lot of it, frankly.

Paul Patterson: Okay, fair enough. Just finally on, there was a nuke conference yesterday or hearing, what have you, at the commission. I wasn't able to listen to a lot of it, frankly, but it sounded like there's a lot of kind of excitement for, you know, for, you know, in the context of utilities, in terms of this resource. You know, I was just wondering if you guys, you know, any thoughts about if there's anything in the near term that we might see on that or just any thoughts on that?

Speaker #12: But it sounded like there's a lot of kind of excitement for in the context of utilities. In terms of this resource, and I was just just wondering if you guys with any thoughts about what the if there's anything in the near term that we might see on that or just any thoughts on that?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Paul, I mean, we're fortunate that the broader community policymakers and community leaders remain very supportive for nuclear. Obviously, that's important to us given the fact that we operate the largest producing nuclear plant in the country today.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Paul, I mean, we're fortunate that the broader community, policymakers, and community leaders remain very supportive for nuclear. Obviously, that's important to us, given the fact that we operate the largest producing nuclear plant in the country today. There's also a lot of interest in whether there's an opportunity for new nuclear in Arizona going forward. We've been very clear with stakeholders and our customers that while we remain constructively supportive of new nuclear for our country and potentially Arizona in the future, that that's not something that you would expect in the near term, but it's something that we want to pay close attention to and work collaboratively with stakeholders to identify what those opportunities could look like over the medium and long term for our state.

Speaker #7: But there's also a lot of interest in whether there's an opportunity for new nuclear in Arizona going forward. We've been very clear with stakeholders and our customers that while we remain constructively supportive of new nuclear for our country and potentially Arizona in the future, that that's not something that you would expect in the near term, but it's something that we want to pay close attention to and work collaboratively with stakeholders to identify what those opportunities could look like over the medium and long term for our state.

Speaker #7: And so that's a big part of what the workshop was about yesterday. And we really appreciate the commission taking time to learn and explore what these opportunities could be.

Ted Geisler: That's a big part of what the workshop was about yesterday, and we really appreciate the commission taking time to learn and explore what these opportunities could be. It's great dialogue, we've been very clear that, you know, there's a lot of capital required. You need constructive policy, and importantly, you need the supply chain and the trades to be able to have the capacity to be able to build out these projects. We're actively involved in the industry. We're actively involved in the state, supporting what new nuclear could look like in the future, but we view that as more of a medium and long-term opportunity.

Speaker #7: It's great dialogue. But we've been very clear that there's a lot of capital required. You need constructive policy. And importantly, you need the supply chain and the trades to be able to have the capacity to be able to build out these projects.

Speaker #7: So we're actively involved in the industry. We're actively involved in the state and supporting what new nuclear could look like in the future. But we view that as more of a medium- and long-term opportunity.

Speaker #12: Awesome. Thanks so much, guys.

Paul Patterson: Awesome. Thanks so much, guys.

Speaker #7: Thanks, Paul.

Ted Geisler: Thanks, Paul.

Speaker #1: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Steve D'Ambrese from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Steve D'Ambrosi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker #12: Hey, Tim, Andrew. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one. On slide 20 on the sales growth, I mean, I think the first bullet says it all.

Steve D'Ambrosi: Hi, Tim, Andrew. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on slide 20 on the sales growth. I mean, I think the first bullet says that all 9 consecutive quarters of growth exceeding the guidance range, and just obviously, Q4 looks like it's accelerating. Maybe there's some, you know, art versus science of weather normalization in a weak weather quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about, you know, what this sales growth trend looks like versus kind of the 4% to 6%, 26 sales growth that you've given in the long-term guidance as well?

Speaker #12: Nine consecutive quarters of growth exceeding the guidance range and just obviously 4Q looks like it's accelerating. Maybe there's some art versus science of whether normalization in a weak weather quarter.

Speaker #12: But can you just talk a little bit about what this sales growth trend looks like versus kind of the four to six percent, 26 sales growth that you've given and the long-term guidance as well?

Speaker #7: Sure, Steve. It's Andrew. We've continued to see very diversified and very consistent sales growth. For the year, residential came in at really the top end of where we've ever forecasted because at four to six percent that we've forecasted for last year, that we forecast for this year, represents largely the ramp-up of our extra high-load factor customers.

Andrew Cooper: Sure, Steve, it's Andrew. You know, we've continued to see, you know, very diversified and very consistent sales growth. You know, for the year, residential came in at really the top end of where we've ever forecasted, because that 4% to 6% that we had forecasted for last year, that we forecast for this year, represents largely the ramp-up of our extra high load factor customers. To see that level of residential growth, driven by nearly 2.5% customer growth, remains strong. What we expect in 2026 is kind of a reversion to the normal dynamics, where the ramp-up of the extra high load factor customers is the dominant part of the sales mix.

Speaker #7: So to see that level of residential growth driven by nearly two and a half percent customer growth remains strong. What we expect in 2026 is kind of a reversion to the normal dynamics where the ramp-up of the extra high-load factor customers is the dominant part of the sales mix.

Speaker #7: But one of the, I think, tailwinds that we've seen that will just have to continue to monitor in 2026. Distributed generation produced pretty small offsets to residential sales.

Andrew Cooper: One of the, I think, tailwinds that we've seen, that we'll just have to continue to monitor in 2026. Distributed generation produced pretty small offsets to residential sales. That's where I think that's what drove it to the upside and kind of continued to drive that tailwind into Q4 of last year. We'll just have to continue to monitor as those reductions in applications we're seeing for new rooftop installations translate potentially into, you know, support for our residential sales growth numbers. In the near term, you know, 2026 is driven by the known customers in that queue that we see ramping and see coming online, including as the fabs of TSMC continue to move ahead.

Speaker #7: And I think that's what drove it to the upside and kind of continued to drive that tailwind into Q4 of last year. And so we'll just have to continue to monitor as those reductions in applications we're seeing for new rooftop installations translate potentially into support for our residential sales growth numbers.

Speaker #7: But in the near term, 2026 is driven by the known customers in that queue that we see ramping and see coming online, including as the fabs at TSMC continue to move ahead.

Speaker #7: And then, over the longer term, through 2030, that step-up is really related to, again, those known customers and where we expect them to be in their ramps.

Andrew Cooper: Then over the longer term, through 2030, that step-up is really related to, again, those known customers and where we expect them to be in their ramps. You know, having worked with the data centers for a long time, I think our forecasting has gained a good balance of understanding where these customers are, what the intent of their facilities are, and how that drives those ramp rates year to year. Fundamentally, the runway that we have with these customers and combined with the semiconductor space and then the residential growth gives us pretty strong confidence in those numbers through the end of the decade.

Speaker #7: And having worked with the data centers for a long time, I think our forecasting has gained a good balance of understanding where these customers are, what the intent of their facilities is, and how that drives those ramp rates.

Speaker #7: Year to year. But fundamentally, the runway that we have with these customers, combined with the semiconductor space and then the residential growth, gives us pretty strong confidence in those numbers through the end of the decade.

Speaker #12: Okay. That's helpful. And just I don't know if you've do you have a sensitivity or rule of thumb on the extent I know you're guiding back down to the normal average for resi customer growth, but to the extent it's it's back at the top end and outperforms by 50 basis points or 100 basis points.

Steve D'Ambrosi: Okay. That's, that's helpful. Just I don't know Do you have a sensitivity or rule of thumb on, like, the extent... I know you're guiding back down to the normal average for resi customer growth, but to the extent it's, you know, it's back at the top end and outperforms by 50 basis points or 100 basis points, like, what that means for, like, an EPS sensitivity?

Speaker #12: What that means for an EPS sensitivity?

Speaker #7: Yeah. On a gross margin basis, we typically say that 1% of residential growth is somewhere north of $25 million. Whereas 1% related to extra high-load factor could be more in the $5 to $10 million range.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah, you know, on a gross margin basis, we typically say that 1% of residential growth is somewhere north of $25 million, whereas 1%, related to extra high load factor, could be more in the $5 to 10 million range. That's kind of the distinction. You know, of course, all of it gives us operating leverage as we continue to focus on reducing our costs across the system. That's the rule of thumb that we think about. In terms of, you know, residential hours just being more clustered around the peak and the XHLF, of course, delivering, you know, 90-plus percent load factors across peak and off-peak hours.

Speaker #7: So that's kind of the distinction of, of course, all of it gives us operating leverage as we continue to focus on reducing our costs across the system.

Speaker #7: But that's the rule of thumb that we think about in terms of residential hours just being more clustered around the peak. And the XHLF, of course, delivering 90-plus percent load factors across peak and off-peak hours.

Speaker #12: Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.

Anthony Crowdell: Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker #1: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Ryan Levine from Citi, your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Ryan Levine from Citi. Your line is live.

Speaker #13: Good morning. Can you tell where you can ship? Can you tell where you can share around the pace of the large load commitments and the uncommitted bucket that you're considering to be ready for?

Ryan Levine: Good morning.

Andrew Cooper: Morning.

Ryan Levine: Good morning. Any color you could share around the pace of the large load commitments in the uncommitted bucket that you're considering to be ready for? I mean, do you think this should all come together for a lot of these large customers around the same time? Or kinda how do you manage the kinda cadence of potential movement from the uncommitted to the committed bucket?

Speaker #13: I mean, do you think this should all come together for a lot of these large customers around the same time, or kind of how do you manage the kind of cadence of potential movement from the uncommitted to the committed bucket?

Speaker #7: Yeah. Ryan, the way we are treating that is as we identify infrastructure and projects to be able to offer to that uncommitted queue, at a volume that is worthy of gaining their interest.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Ryan, the way we are treating that is, as we identify infrastructure and projects to be able to offer to that uncommitted queue at a volume that is worthy of gaining their interest. Call it a gigawatt or more roughly. We'll offer that to the uncommitted queue, generate or gauge interest based on the location and the timing of that infrastructure. Ultimately work with counterparties on the best fit for that infrastructure opportunity and negotiate an agreement. We made our first offer through the subscription model in the latter part of last year. As a result, we're actively in discussions right now with those counterparties that are interested, with the intent to try to finalize an agreement and file it with the commission this year.

Speaker #7: So call it a gigawatt or more, roughly. Then we'll offer that to the uncommitted queue generate or gauge interest based on the location and the timing of that infrastructure.

Speaker #7: And ultimately work with counterparties on the best fit for that infrastructure opportunity and negotiate an agreement. We made our first offer through the subscription model in the latter part of last year.

Speaker #7: And as a result, we're actively in discussions right now with those counterparties that are interested with the intent to try to finalize an agreement and file it with the commission this year.

Speaker #7: And then in parallel to that, we're working on a pipeline of generation and transmission infrastructure projects that would create incremental capacity that could then go back and be offered to that uncommitted queue.

Ted Geisler: ively working on a pipeline of generation and transmission infrastructure projects. These projects will create incremental capacity that can be offered to the uncommitted queue. This is expected to be a repeatable process going forward. All of this uncommitted demand will be incremental to the current plan. The company waits until it has a secured contract with a definitive project before adding it to the plan, both from a capital and rate base standpoint. The load growth associated with those uncommitted projects will also be incremental to the plan

Speaker #7: So we'd expect that to be on somewhat of a repeatable basis going forward. And again, as mentioned before, I think when Julian was asking the question, that all of that for uncommitted demand would be incremental to the current plan, we wait until we have a secured contract with a definitive project before we add it to the plan, both from a capital and rate-based standpoint.

Speaker #7: And then the load growth associated with those uncommitted projects would also be incremental to the plan. So we're actively working on that now. But importantly, we want to make sure that we identify the infrastructure capacity first and do this prudently.

Ted Geisler: Importantly, we want to make sure that we identify the infrastructure capacity first and do this prudently. Secondly, it'll be important in parallel to work with our commission on modernizing the rates to ensure the growth pays for growth.

Speaker #7: And then secondly, it'll be important in parallel to work with our commission on modernizing the rates to ensure the growth base for growth.

Speaker #13: Great. And then is the company looking to finance some of the transmission buildout with some of the DOE energy dominance financing, as we've seen with some of your peers around the country?

Ryan Levine: Great. Then, is the company looking to finance some of the transmission build-out with some of the DOE energy dominance financing, as we've seen with some of your peers around the country? How are you thinking about the transmission funding source?

Speaker #13: And how are you thinking about the transmission funding source?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Ryan, it's Andrew. We'll look at all financing sources. For the CapEx plan, in particular, we are interested in looking at sources of capital that are outside the traditional.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah, Ryan, it's Andrew. You know, we'll look at all financing sources for the CapEx plan. You know, in particular, you know, we are interested in looking at sources of capital that are outside, you know, the traditional. I think it starts with our customers and ensuring that as part of this growth base for growth conception, that they're putting capital to work, given the size of some of their balance sheets and the urgency with which they want to come online. You know, looking at customer financing, certainly looking at any financing alternatives out there. We'll, you know, continue to evaluate grants and other opportunities that come out of the federal government as well as we go along.

Speaker #7: I think it starts with our customers and ensuring that as part of this growth base for growth conception, that they're putting capital to work, given the size of some of their balance sheets and the urgency with which they want to come online.

Speaker #7: So looking at customer financing, certainly looking at any financing alternatives out there. And so we'll continue to evaluate grants and other opportunities that come out of the federal government as well as we go along.

Speaker #7: But fundamentally, right now, the financing plan you see is our base plan today, which really allows us to rely on traditional funding sources. But certainly, as we look at some of these large projects and more on a temporal basis, look at doing a bunch of large stuff at once, we'll look at all kinds of alternatives to take it off balance sheet during construction.

Andrew Cooper: You know, fundamentally right now, the financing plan you see is, you know, our base plan, you know, today, which really allows us to rely on traditional funding sources. Certainly, as we look at some of these large projects and more on a temporal basis, look at, you know, doing a bunch of large stuff at once, we'll look at all kinds of, you know, alternatives to take it off balance sheet during construction. I think really it starts with ensuring that we're aligned with our customers and through the subscription model, to the extent that we can get capital upfront from our customers to buy down their price over time, that helps us as well from a balance sheet perspective.

Speaker #7: I think, really, it starts with ensuring that we're aligned with our customers, and through the subscription model, to the extent that we can get capital upfront from our customers to buy down their price over time.

Speaker #7: That helps us as well from a balance sheet perspective.

Speaker #13: Thank you.

Ryan Levine: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho. Your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is coming from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho. Your line is live.

Speaker #14: Hey, good morning, Andrew. I'm sure you're missing New York City with the snow we just got. Just two quick questions. One is, where did you end the year on an FFO to debt basis?

Anthony Crowdell: Hey, good morning, Andrew. I'm sure you're missing New York City with the snow we just got.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah.

Anthony Crowdell: Just two quick questions. One is, where did you end the year on an FFO to debt basis? Will you be at 14% to 16% throughout the entire forecast period? I have one follow-up.

Speaker #14: And will you be at 14 to 16 percent throughout the entire forecast period? And I have one follow-up.

Speaker #7: Yeah. So Moody's is really the limiting constraint given their downgrade threshold is 14%. So we really focus there. And we were north of 14%.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah. You know, Moody's is really the limiting constraint, given their downgrade threshold is 14%. We really focus there. You know, we were, you know, north of 14%. We won't get their official calculations until Q1, if you do it on the basis as we understand it, we're, you know, high fourteens from a Moody's perspective, feel good about that. Our, you know, our aspirational goal is to ensure that we're always maintaining 100 basis points of cushion. If you look at the regulatory lag that we're going to continue to go through in 2026, I think it really points to why the dialogue we're having in this rate case is so important.

Speaker #7: We won't get there official calculations until Q1. But if you do it on the basis as we understand it, we're high 14s. From a Moody's perspective.

Speaker #7: So feel good about that. Our aspirational goal is to ensure that we're always maintaining 100 basis points of cushion. If you look at the regulatory lag that we're going to continue to go through in 2026, I think it really points to why the dialogue we're having in this rate case is so important.

Speaker #7: That FFO to debt, the further you get away from any rate relief, it starts to come under some pressure. And so while we know that the rating agencies don't take a short-term perspective, and we've maintained pretty consistent dialogue with them about the improvements that we're seeing in the potential for cost recovery, particularly through the formula, you look at our earnings trajectory in '26 versus '25, that is all regulatory lag related.

Andrew Cooper: That FFO to debt, the further you get away from any rate relief, it starts to, you know, come under some pressure. You know, while we, you know that the rating agencies don't take a short-term perspective, and we've maintained pretty consistent dialogue with them about the improvements that we're seeing and the potential for cost recovery, particularly through the formula, you look at our earnings trajectory in 2026 versus 2025, that is all regulatory lag related, and that should translate into the top line on an FFO to debt, you know, numerator perspective as well. Ultimately, I think our goal is to grow that numerator, I think will go a long way to shore up the credit metrics and allow us to deliver that 14% to 16% for the long term with sufficient cushion within that range.

Speaker #7: And that should translate into the top line on an FO-to-debt numerator perspective as well. Ultimately, I think our goal is to grow that numerator.

Speaker #7: And that, I think, will go a long way to shore up the credit metrics and allow us to deliver that 14% to 16% for the long term, with sufficient cushion within that range.

Speaker #13: Great. And then I think Ted it was to you earlier, one of the earlier questions, on the transparency. You hope to get earnings I believe once the formula rate plan is in effect.

Anthony Crowdell: Great. I think, Ted, it was to your one of the earlier questions on the transparency. You hope to get earnings, I believe, once the formula rate plan is in effect. You started talking about maybe more linear or more linearity with the earnings. Is it you hope with the formula rate plan, if it once it gets passed and enacted, that we get a more linear trajectory of earnings, a longer trajectory of earnings, or both?

Speaker #13: You started talking about maybe more linear or more linearity with the earnings. Is it your hope with the formula rate plan, if it—once it gets passed and enacted—that we get a more linear trajectory of earnings?

Speaker #13: A longer trajectory of earnings, or both?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Anthony, I think we fully recognize that a more standard disclosure would be able to match earnings, rate base, and capital plan out to that five-year mark.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Anthony, I think we fully recognize that a more standard disclosure would be able to match earnings rate base and capital plan out to that five-year mark. We would like to be able to give longer visibility and also include within that a more consistent, linear trajectory. Given the current construct within our jurisdiction of the lumpy nature of these rate cases, that's just been challenging to do while maintaining precision with that forecast. We'll take the opportunity once this case is processed to be able to step back and reflect on the best disclosures we can develop and release. Our aim would be to be more consistent with our peers in that regard.

Speaker #7: And so we would like to be able to give longer visibility and also include within that a more consistent linear trajectory. But given the current construct within our jurisdiction, of the lumpy nature of these rate cases, that's just been challenging to do while maintaining precision with that forecast.

Speaker #7: And so we'll take the opportunity, once this case is processed, to be able to step back and reflect on the best disclosures we can develop and release.

Speaker #7: And our aim would be to be more consistent with our peers in that regard. So once we conclude the case, we'll prepare a new set of disclosures and forecasts and our goal would be to be able to provide that in a longer term and be able to achieve more linearity as a result of the more regular nature in which the formula will work.

Ted Geisler: Once we conclude the case, we'll prepare a new set of disclosures and forecasts, and our goal would be to be able to provide that in a longer term and be able to achieve more linearity as a result of the more regular nature in which the formula will work.

Speaker #13: Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Anthony Crowdell: Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker #7: Thanks, Anthony.

Ted Geisler: Thanks, Anthony.

Speaker #1: Thank you. And once again, everyone, if you have any questions or comments, please press star, then one on your phone. Your next question is coming from Chris Ellinghouse, from Seabert William Shank.

Operator: Thank you. Once again, everyone, if you have any questions or comments, please press Star, then one on your phone. Your next question is coming from Christopher Ellinghaus from Siebert Williams Shank. Your line is live.

Speaker #1: Your line is live.

Speaker #7: Hey, good morning, everybody. Just a follow-up. The I was thinking the same thing about the disclosure and how formula rates will change that. But just to be clear, is it just the formula rates being effective?

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: Hey, good morning, everybody. Just a follow-up. I was thinking the same thing about the disclosure and, you know, how formula rates will change that. Just to be clear, you know, is it just the formula rates being effective, or do you also need to have some greater clarity on, say, you know, what's in the committed queue, as well as having some better sense of where TSMC is going with their next expansions to give you know, adequate data to do that sort of extension?

Speaker #7: Or do you also need to have some greater clarity on, say, what's in the committed queue, as well as having some better sense of where TSMC is going with their next expansions, to give you adequate data to do that sort of extension?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Chris, the way we think about it is it really is almost entirely about the timing consistency of cost recovery. We've got a pretty good view of our committed demand.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Chris, the way we think about it is it really is almost entirely about the timing and consistency of cost recovery. We've got a pretty good view of our committed demand, and it's robust. Due to the substantial regulatory lag in the jurisdiction, the ability to consistently, on a linear basis, translate that top-line growth and the bottom-line growth is challenged by the lumpy nature of our rate case process. When you evolve to a formula rate, you've got more steady, gradual rate changes for our customers, and it also allows us to have a bit more of a predictable and consistent recovery method to be able to recover those costs. That's really the biggest change.

Speaker #7: And it's robust. But due to the substantial regulatory lag in the jurisdiction, the ability to consistently, on a linear basis, translate that top-line growth into bottom-line growth is challenged by the lumpy nature of our rate case process.

Speaker #7: When you evolve to a formula rate, you've got more steady, gradual rate changes for our customers. And it also allows us to have a bit more of a predictable and consistent recovery method to be able to recover those costs.

Speaker #7: And that's really the biggest change.

Speaker #13: Okay. Sure. Andrew, in terms of looking at particularly the RES, DSM component of O&M, how should we think about that going forward relative to where you are for 2026?

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: Okay, sure. Andrew, in terms of looking at particularly the RES/DSM component of O&M, how should we think about that going forward relative to where you are for 2026?

David Brown: Okay, sure. Andrew, in terms of looking at particularly the RES/DSM component of O&M, how should we think about that going forward relative to where you are for 2026?

Speaker #7: Yeah. So I think the most important thing to keep in mind, Chris, is that those are regulatory programs that we recover through rates. And so they basically show up in both our gross margin number, and then they show up offsetting nearly dollar for dollar on the O&M side.

Andrew Cooper: Yeah. I think the most important thing to keep in mind, Chris, is that those are regulatory programs that we recover through rates, and so they basically show up in both our gross margin number, and then they show up offsetting nearly dollar for dollar on the O&M side. At the end of last year, the commission determined to discontinue some of those regulatory programs, and so the size of the overall DSM program condensed. You've seen that condensing both on the gross margin side and on the O&M side.

Speaker #7: At the end of last year, the commission determined to discontinue some of those regulatory programs. And so the size of the overall DSM program condensed and so you've seen that condensing both on the gross margin side and on the O&M side.

Speaker #7: And so while there is a great overall story around our O&M cost management as a company, when you look at our waterfall from '25 to '26, a considerable portion of that O&M-related benefit is tied directly to an offsetting decrease in revenue received on the gross margin side that RES, DSM, PSA chemicals line items.

Andrew Cooper: You know, while there is a great overall story around our O&M cost management as a company, when you look at our waterfall from 25 to 26, a considerable portion of that O&M related benefit is tied directly to an offsetting decrease in revenue received on the gross margin side, that RES DSM PSA chemicals line item. You know, while the programs that we have in place today, we feel, you know, really good about, you know, the commission made that determination, and so those programs have been condensed in the meantime. You would expect.

Speaker #7: So while the programs that we have in place today, we feel really good about the commission made that determination. And so those programs have been condensed in the meantime.

Speaker #7: And

Speaker #13: So I understand that there's an offset. But what I'm trying to figure out is sort of given the cost pressures for particularly for residential sort of across the board, do you think that there I guess the right way to put it is there appetite for those programs is permanently reduced?

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: So-

Andrew Cooper: Yeah.

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: I understand that there's an offset, but what I'm trying to figure out is, sort of given the cost pressures for particularly for residential, you know, sort of across the board, do you think that there, I guess, the right way to put it, is their appetite for those programs is permanently reduced, or do you think there could be some return to those programs, given just sort of cost of living pressures for consumers?

Speaker #13: Or do you think there could be some return to those programs given just sort of cost of living pressures for consumers?

Speaker #7: Yeah, Chris, this is Ted. I guess the way I would look at it is I think the commission and staff really took a thoughtful approach to reviewing all the programs and saying, "Which of those programs have the greatest positive impact for the customers that need them the most?" And let's focus the funding on those programs while retiring the programs that are a bit legacy in nature that have less effectiveness and may not be worth the investment any longer.

Ted Geisler: Yeah, Chris, this is Ted. I guess the way I would look at it is, I think the commission and staff really took a thoughtful approach to reviewing all the programs and saying: Which of those programs have the greatest positive impact for the customers that need them the most? Let's focus the funding on those programs while retiring the programs that are a bit legacy in nature, that have less effectiveness and may not be worth the investment any longer. A lot of those programs have been in place for many years. They did a lot of good work, but they also started to reach a saturation point. Really, the programs that are remaining are the ones that benefit the customers that need it the most and have the greatest impact.

Speaker #7: A lot of those programs have been in place for many years. They did a lot of good work. But they also started to reach a saturation point.

Speaker #7: And so really, the programs that are remaining are the ones that benefit the customers who need it the most and have the greatest impact.

Speaker #7: And I think this commission is focused on just continuously reviewing those programs to ensuring that they're using the dollars wisely and they're maximizing impact for the investment made.

Ted Geisler: I think this commission is focused on just continuously reviewing those programs to ensuring that they're using the dollars wisely, and they're maximizing impact for the investment made. The commission's also very focused on affordability. They recognize the need to allow utilities to recover costs as a result of inflation, as a result of the investments needed to secure a reliable grid due to growth, but in parallel, look for any opportunity possible to be able to reduce costs for customers. The right sizing of the DSM plan resulted in a meaningful savings to all our customers. Just to echo what Andrew said, you know, we need to do our part as well, which is why we're going on 3 years now of flat to declining O&M, declining O&M per kilowatt hour.

Speaker #7: The commission's also very focused on affordability. They recognize the need to allow utilities to recover costs as a result of inflation, as a result of the investments needed to secure a reliable grid due to growth.

Speaker #7: But, in parallel, look for any opportunity possible to be able to reduce costs for customers, and the right-sizing of the DSM plan resulted in meaningful savings to all our customers.

Speaker #7: But just to echo what Andrew said, we need to do our part as well, which is why we're going on three years now of flat to declining O&M, declining O&M per kilowatt-hour, we continue to be focused on modernizing the rates in this rate case to ensure that the extra high load factor customers are paying their fair share of growth, which has a net benefit to residential customers.

Ted Geisler: We continue to be focused on modernizing the rates in this rate case to ensure that the extra high load factor customers are paying their fair share of growth, which has a net benefit to residential customers. We remain competitive from a rate standpoint, where our residential rates are below the national average, and we'll do everything we can to be able to keep them affordable.

Speaker #7: And we remain competitive from a rate standpoint where our residential rates are below the national average. And we'll do everything we can to be able to keep them affordable.

Speaker #13: That helps. Thanks, Ted.

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: That helps. Thanks, Ted.

Speaker #7: Thanks, Chris.

Ted Geisler: Thanks, Chris.

Speaker #13: Lastly, the additional TSMC expansions how much vision do you have into them at this point? And when do you expect to have more perfect clarity on what that's going to look like for you?

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: Lastly, the additional TSMC expansions, how much vision do you have into them at this point? When do you expect to have, you know, more perfect clarity on what that's gonna look like for you?

Speaker #7: TSMC is a very important customer obviously with substantial buildout ongoing. And so we're in active discussions with them, both the timing of the fabs that they've announced and committed to, as well as any potential expansion that they may have.

Ted Geisler: TSMC is a very important customer, obviously, with a substantial build-out ongoing. We're in active discussions with them on both the timing of the fabs that they've announced and committed to, as well as any potential expansion that they may have. When they're ready to solidify their plans, we'll be ready to articulate what that means from a utility infrastructure standpoint.

Speaker #7: So when they're ready to solidify their plans, then we'll be ready to articulate what that means from a utility infrastructure standpoint.

Speaker #13: Okay. Great. Thanks. Appreciate the details.

Christopher Ellinghaus (Sie: Okay, great. Thanks. Appreciate the details.

Speaker #7: Thanks, Chris.

Ted Geisler: Thanks, Chris.

Speaker #1: Thank you. That completes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

Operator: Thank you. That completes our Q&A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

Q4 2025 Pinnacle West Capital Corp Earnings Call

Request a DemoDemo

PNW

Pinnacle West Capital

Earnings