Q3 FY2026 Novelis Inc Earnings Call
Speaker #2: Greetings . Welcome to Novalis s third quarter Fiscal Year 26 earnings Conference call . This time , all will be in listen only mode .
Speaker #2: A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero from your telephone keypad.
Speaker #2: Please note that this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Megan Coker, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations.
Megan Cochard: Thank you, Rob. And good morning or evening, everyone. Welcome to Novelis' third quarter, fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. Hosting our call today is Steve Fisher, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dev Ahuja, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, the call will be open to analysts and investors for questions. This conference call is being broadcast on the internet at novelis.com in the investor section. A replay of this call will also be available on our website. Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me remind you that today's earnings release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Megan, you may now begin.
Speaker #3: Thank you , Rob , and good morning or evening , everyone . Welcome to Novellus third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call .
Operator: Hosting our call today is Steve Fisher, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dev Ahuja, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, the call will be open to analysts and investors for questions. This conference call is being broadcast on the internet at novelis.com in the investor section. A replay of this call will also be available on our website. Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me remind you that today's earnings release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measurements.
Speaker #3: Hosting our call today is Steve Fisher , our president and Chief Executive Officer . And Deb Ahuja , our chief financial officer . Following the presentation , the call will be open to analysts and investors for questions .
Speaker #3: This conference call is being broadcast on the internet at novelis.com in the investor section. A replay of this call will also be available on our website.
Speaker #3: Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me remind you that today's earnings release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Speaker #3: These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Megan Cochard: Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measurements. Reconciliation of these measurements is provided in the financial statements included with our earnings release as well as in the appendix of our presentation. Now, let me turn the call over to Steve.
Operator: Reconciliation of these measurements is provided in the financial statements included with our earnings release as well as in the appendix of our presentation. Now, let me turn the call over to Steve. Thanks, Megan. Good morning or evening, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We are navigating through the production disruption stemming from a significant fire at our Oswego plant in the US in November, following a separate fire event that occurred in the same area of the plant in September. We're intensely focused on safely restoring operations at the Oswego Hot Mill so that we can return our system to full capacity to meet growing demand for aluminum roll products. While the fire incidents caused production disruption, our underlying performance remains strong.
Speaker #3: Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measurements is in the financial statements provided with our earnings release, as well as in the appendix of our presentation.
Steve Fisher: Thanks, Megan. Good morning or evening, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We are navigating through the production disruption stemming from a significant fire at our Oswego plant in the US in November, following a separate fire event that occurred in the same area of the plant in September. We're intensely focused on safely restoring operations at the Oswego Hot Mill so that we can return our system to full capacity to meet growing demand for aluminum roll products. While the fire incidents caused production disruption, our underlying performance remains strong.
Speaker #3: Now, let me turn the call over to Steve.
Speaker #4: Thanks , Megan . Good morning or evening , everyone , and thanks for joining us today . We are navigating through the production disruption stemming from a significant fire at our Oswego plant in the US in November .
Speaker #4: While in a separate fire event that occurred in the same area of the plant in September, we are intensely focused on safely restoring operations at Oswego Hot Mill so that we can return our system to full capacity to meet growing demand for aluminum rolled products.
Operator: Cost efficiencies and favorable recycling benefits contributed to a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA per ton to $430 in Q3, even after absorbing impact of the Oswego fires as well as tariffs. Q3 adjusted EBITDA is down 5% year-over-year, but excluding the negative impact of the Oswego fires and tariff costs in Q3 results, adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year, highlighting the robustness of our core business. Demand for aluminum flat roll products continues to grow, specifically in the beverage packaging market, our largest global end market by volume. The aluminum scrap market continues to improve in terms of both availability and pricing. Importantly, we are making strong and steady progress on what we can control.
Steve Fisher: Cost efficiencies and favorable recycling benefits contributed to a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA per ton to $430 in Q3, even after absorbing impact of the Oswego fires as well as tariffs. Q3 adjusted EBITDA is down 5% year-over-year, but excluding the negative impact of the Oswego fires and tariff costs in Q3 results, adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year, highlighting the robustness of our core business. Demand for aluminum flat roll products continues to grow, specifically in the beverage packaging market, our largest global end market by volume. The aluminum scrap market continues to improve in terms of both availability and pricing. Importantly, we are making strong and steady progress on what we can control.
Speaker #4: While the fire incidents caused production disruption , our underlying performance remains strong . Cost efficiencies and favorable recycling benefits contributed to a 6% year over year increase in adjusted EBITDA per tonne to 430 .
Speaker #4: In the third quarter, even after absorbing the impact of the Oswego fires as well as tariffs, Q3 adjusted EBITDA is down 5% year over year.
Speaker #4: But excluding the negative impact of the Oswego fires and tariff costs in Q3 results, adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year, highlighting the robustness of our core business.
Speaker #4: Demand for aluminum flat rolled products continues to grow, specifically in the beverage packaging market. Our largest global in-market by volume in the aluminum scrap market continues to improve in terms of both availability and pricing.
Operator: We continue to implement tariff mitigation efforts in North America, which resulted in a 37% reduction in net tariff impact compared to fiscal Q2 by excessing available cold mill capacity in the US. We believe we will more fully mitigate tariffs as we exit this fiscal year. We also are making excellent progress with our global cost efficiency program. With strong execution to date, we are raising our near-term guidance on run-rate cost savings to a fiscal 2026 exit rate in excess of $150 million, an increase compared to our previous guidance, upwardly revising it from $125 million to $150 million. We are making significant advances in the construction of our greenfield rolling and recycling plant at Bay Minette.
Steve Fisher: We continue to implement tariff mitigation efforts in North America, which resulted in a 37% reduction in net tariff impact compared to fiscal Q2 by excessing available cold mill capacity in the US. We believe we will more fully mitigate tariffs as we exit this fiscal year. We also are making excellent progress with our global cost efficiency program. With strong execution to date, we are raising our near-term guidance on run-rate cost savings to a fiscal 2026 exit rate in excess of $150 million, an increase compared to our previous guidance, upwardly revising it from $125 million to $150 million. We are making significant advances in the construction of our greenfield rolling and recycling plant at Bay Minette.
Speaker #4: Importantly, making sure we are strong and steady in what we progress on can control. We continue to implement tariff mitigation efforts in North America, which resulted in a 37% net reduction in impact compared to fiscal Q2. By assessing available cold mill capacity in the US, we believe we will fully more mitigate tariffs as we exit this fiscal year.
Speaker #4: We also are making excellent progress with our global efficiency cost program, with strong execution to date. We are raising our near-term guidance on run rate cost savings to a fiscal 2026 exit rate in excess of $150 million, an increase compared to our previous guidance.
Speaker #4: Upwardly revising it from $125 million to $150 million. And we are making significant advances in the construction of our greenfield rolling and recycling plant at Bay Minette.
Operator: We expect to begin commissioning the Cold Mill at Bay Minette next month, and we remain firmly on track for commissioning of the full plant in the second half of this calendar year. Before I turn the call over to Dev for a more detailed review of our Q3 results, let me take a moment to provide an update on Oswego. We are experiencing production disruption as a result of two significant fire events at our New York plant in September and November. We are thankful that all employees were safely evacuated, and there were no injuries among our people or first responders during either incident. Both fires were contained to the Hot Mill area and the building structure surrounding it, but it is important to note these were two separate events that occurred under different conditions.
Steve Fisher: We expect to begin commissioning the Cold Mill at Bay Minette next month, and we remain firmly on track for commissioning of the full plant in the second half of this calendar year. Before I turn the call over to Dev for a more detailed review of our Q3 results, let me take a moment to provide an update on Oswego. We are experiencing production disruption as a result of two significant fire events at our New York plant in September and November. We are thankful that all employees were safely evacuated, and there were no injuries among our people or first responders during either incident. Both fires were contained to the Hot Mill area and the building structure surrounding it, but it is important to note these were two separate events that occurred under different conditions.
Speaker #4: We expect to begin commissioning the coal mill at Bay Minette next month, and remain firmly on track for commissioning of the full plant in the second half of this calendar year.
Speaker #4: Before I turn the call over to Deb for a more detailed review of results , let provide third quarter our me take a update on an Oswego .
Speaker #4: We are experiencing production disruption as a result of two significant fire events at our New York plant in September and November. We are thankful that all employees were safely evacuated, and there were no injuries among our people or first responders during either incident.
Speaker #4: Both fires were contained to the Hot Mill area and the building structure surrounding it. It is important to note these were two separate events that occurred under different conditions.
Operator: Importantly, all other areas of the plant (recycling and casting, cold rolling, automotive finishing, and shipping) were unaffected and have remained operational. We are still working to fully understand the cause of the September and November fires and plan to incorporate any learnings into our worldwide operating procedures in order to prevent this type of incident from recurring in the future. While analysis is ongoing, we believe several factors could have contributed to the September fire, including the composition and characteristics of the coil, as well as lubricants in the mill and surrounding area. The cause of the November fire is still under investigation. In the meantime, our focus has been twofold: ensuring the safety of our people as we work to restore operations and rerouting material from around the world to serve our customers in North America.
Steve Fisher: Importantly, all other areas of the plant (recycling and casting, cold rolling, automotive finishing, and shipping) were unaffected and have remained operational. We are still working to fully understand the cause of the September and November fires and plan to incorporate any learnings into our worldwide operating procedures in order to prevent this type of incident from recurring in the future. While analysis is ongoing, we believe several factors could have contributed to the September fire, including the composition and characteristics of the coil, as well as lubricants in the mill and surrounding area. The cause of the November fire is still under investigation. In the meantime, our focus has been twofold: ensuring the safety of our people as we work to restore operations and rerouting material from around the world to serve our customers in North America.
Speaker #4: Importantly , all other areas of the plant recycling and casting , cold rolling , automotive finishing and shipping were unaffected and have remained operational .
Speaker #4: We are still working to fully understand the cause of the September and November fires, and plan to incorporate any learnings into our worldwide operating procedures in order to prevent this type of incident from happening again.
Speaker #4: future recurring in the While analysis is ongoing , we believe several factors could have contributed to the September Fire , including the composition and characteristics of the coil , as well as lubricants in the mill and surrounding area .
Speaker #4: The cause of the November fire is still under investigation. In the meantime, our focus has been twofold: ensuring the safety of our people as we work to restore operations, and rerouting material from around the world to serve our customers in North America.
Operator: In regard to customer support, we have significantly increased efforts to overcome capacity constraints by identifying and qualifying other avenues of supply, leveraging our vast network of Novelis plants around the world, as well as third-party sources. In regard to site restoration, we still have much to do. However, based on work to date and execution timelines, our current best estimate is for the Oswego Hot Mill to restart late in Q2 of this calendar year. While the September fire and November fire were two unique events from an accounting and insurance perspective, we currently estimate the combined total free cash flow impact from the two incidents to be between $1.3 to 1.6 billion. This is before insurance recoveries are taken into account and includes approximately $150 to 200 million in Adjusted EBITDA, assuming an estimated shipment impact of approximately 150 to 200 kilotons.
Steve Fisher: In regard to customer support, we have significantly increased efforts to overcome capacity constraints by identifying and qualifying other avenues of supply, leveraging our vast network of Novelis plants around the world, as well as third-party sources. In regard to site restoration, we still have much to do. However, based on work to date and execution timelines, our current best estimate is for the Oswego Hot Mill to restart late in Q2 of this calendar year. While the September fire and November fire were two unique events from an accounting and insurance perspective, we currently estimate the combined total free cash flow impact from the two incidents to be between $1.3 to 1.6 billion. This is before insurance recoveries are taken into account and includes approximately $150 to 200 million in Adjusted EBITDA, assuming an estimated shipment impact of approximately 150 to 200 kilotons.
Speaker #4: In regard to customer support , we have significantly increased efforts to overcome capacity constraints by identifying and qualifying other avenues of supply , leveraging our vast network of novellas , plants around the world , as well as third party sources .
Speaker #4: In regard to site restoration, we still have much to do. However, based on work to date and timelines, our estimate for the mill to restart execution at Oswego is currently best projected for late in the second quarter of this calendar year.
Speaker #4: While the September fire and November fire were two unique events from an accounting and insurance perspective, we currently estimate the combined total free cash flow impact from the two incidents to be between $1.3 to $1.6 billion.
Speaker #4: This is before insurance recoveries are taken into account and includes approximately $150 to $200 million in adjusted EBITDA, assuming an estimated shipment impact of approximately 150 to 200 kilotonnes.
Operator: Novelis has comprehensive insurance to protect against these types of incidents, and we're working cooperatively with our insurers to recover on our claims. We, of course, intend to seek recovery of all insured losses subject to the deductibles, supplements, and other exclusions of the policies. However, given the process, the timing and amount of recoveries from any insurance claims related to the fires are uncertain, and they may be less than the full amount of our losses and take some time to materialize. We currently estimate that we will be able to recover approximately 70% to 80% of the estimated cash flow impact of the fires. I'll now turn the call over to Dev for a more detailed review of our Q3 financial results. Thank you, Steve. And good morning or good evening. Let's turn to slide 6 and our Q3 financial highlights compared to the prior year period.
Steve Fisher: Novelis has comprehensive insurance to protect against these types of incidents, and we're working cooperatively with our insurers to recover on our claims. We, of course, intend to seek recovery of all insured losses subject to the deductibles, supplements, and other exclusions of the policies. However, given the process, the timing and amount of recoveries from any insurance claims related to the fires are uncertain, and they may be less than the full amount of our losses and take some time to materialize. We currently estimate that we will be able to recover approximately 70% to 80% of the estimated cash flow impact of the fires. I'll now turn the call over to Dev for a more detailed review of our Q3 financial results.
Speaker #4: Novelis has comprehensive insurance to protect against these types of incidents, and we're working cooperatively with our insurers to recover on our claims.
Speaker #4: We , of course , intend to seek recovery of all insured losses subject to the deductibles , supplements and exclusions other of the policies .
Speaker #4: However, given the process, the timing and amount of recoveries from any insurance claims related to the fires are uncertain, and they may be less than the full amount of our losses and take some time to materialize.
Speaker #4: We currently estimate that we will be able to recover approximately 70% to 80% of the estimated cash flow impact of the fires. I will now turn the call over to Deb for a more detailed review of our Q3 financial results.
Dev Ahuja: Thank you, Steve. And good morning or good evening. Let's turn to slide 6 and our Q3 financial highlights compared to the prior year period. Net sales increased 3% to $4.2 billion, primarily driven by higher average aluminum prices, partially offset by an 11% decline in total roll product shipments to 809 kilotons. Excluding the 72 kilotons negative shipment impact from the Oswego fires, shipments are down 3% due mainly to intentional footprint rationalization earlier this fiscal year, customer disruption in Europe, and lower beverage consumption in South America due to poor weather early in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was down 5% year-over-year to $348 million in the third quarter, which includes an estimated net negative impact of $54 million from the Oswego fires and $34 million from tariffs. Adjusted EBITDA per ton, as reported, was $430, a 6% improvement even after absorbing near-term tariff and fire headwinds, demonstrating the resilience of our business model, effectiveness of our cost efficiency initiatives, and favorable market conditions.
Speaker #5: Thank you, Steve, and good morning or good evening. Let's turn to slide six and our Q3 financial highlights compared to the prior year period.
Operator: Net sales increased 3% to $4.2 billion, primarily driven by higher average aluminum prices, partially offset by an 11% decline in total roll product shipments to 809 kilotons. Excluding the 72 kilotons negative shipment impact from the Oswego fires, shipments are down 3% due mainly to intentional footprint rationalization earlier this fiscal year, customer disruption in Europe, and lower beverage consumption in South America due to poor weather early in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was down 5% year-over-year to $348 million in the third quarter, which includes an estimated net negative impact of $54 million from the Oswego fires and $34 million from tariffs. Adjusted EBITDA per ton, as reported, was $430, a 6% improvement even after absorbing near-term tariff and fire headwinds, demonstrating the resilience of our business model, effectiveness of our cost efficiency initiatives, and favorable market conditions.
Speaker #5: Net sales increased 3% to $4.2 billion, primarily driven by higher average aluminum prices, partially offset by an 11% decline in total rolled product shipments to 809 kilotonnes.
Speaker #5: Excluding the 72 kilotonnes negative impact from the Oswego shipment fires, shipments are down 3%, due mainly to intentional footprint rationalization. Earlier this fiscal year, a customer disruption in Europe and lower beverage consumption in South America, due to poor weather early in the quarter, also impacted results.
Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA was down 5% year over year to $348 million in the third quarter, which includes an estimated net negative impact of $54 million from the Oswego fires and $34 million from tariffs.
Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA per tonne , as reported , was $430 . A 6% improvement even after absorbing near-term tariff and fire headwinds , demonstrating the resilience of our business model .
Operator: Excluding the impact of tariffs and the Oswego fires in adjusted EBITDA and shipments, adjusted EBITDA per ton would be $495. We reported a net loss attributable to our common shareholder of $160 million in the quarter. This includes the estimated pre-tax Oswego fire impact in adjusted EBITDA, as well as $327 million in fire losses recorded below EBITDA that consist of repairs and cleanup costs, idled fixed costs, and excess costs to fulfill customer contracts, net of insurance recoveries. In addition, we had unrealized losses on derivatives this year compared to gains in the prior year, partially offset by favorable metal price lag given the rapid rise in local market premiums. Turning to the next slide, Q3 adjusted EBITDA decreased 5% versus the prior year to $348 million, reflecting the negative impact from tariffs and lower shipments resulting from the two Oswego fires.
Dev Ahuja: Excluding the impact of tariffs and the Oswego fires in adjusted EBITDA and shipments, adjusted EBITDA per ton would be $495. We reported a net loss attributable to our common shareholder of $160 million in the quarter. This includes the estimated pre-tax Oswego fire impact in adjusted EBITDA, as well as $327 million in fire losses recorded below EBITDA that consist of repairs and cleanup costs, idled fixed costs, and excess costs to fulfill customer contracts, net of insurance recoveries. In addition, we had unrealized losses on derivatives this year compared to gains in the prior year, partially offset by favorable metal price lag given the rapid rise in local market premiums. Turning to the next slide, Q3 adjusted EBITDA decreased 5% versus the prior year to $348 million, reflecting the negative impact from tariffs and lower shipments resulting from the two Oswego fires.
Speaker #5: Effectiveness of our cost efficiency initiatives and favorable market conditions, excluding the impact of tariffs and the Oswego fires, in adjusted EBITDA and Shipments' adjusted EBITDA per tonne would be $495.
Speaker #5: We reported a net loss attributable to our common shareholder of $160 million in the quarter. This includes the estimated pre-tax Oswego fire impact in adjusted EBITDA, as well as $327 million in fire losses recorded below EBITDA.
Speaker #5: That consists of repairs and cleanup costs , idled fixed costs and excess costs to fulfill customer contracts , net of insurance recoveries . In addition , we had unrealized losses on derivatives .
Speaker #5: This year to compared gains in the prior year , partially offset by price favorable metal . lag Given the rapid rise in local market premiums turning to the next slide , Q3 adjusted EBITDA decreased 5% versus the prior year to $348 million , reflecting the negative impact from tariffs and lower shipments resulting from the two Oswego fires .
Operator: Without those negative impacts, Adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year. Looking at the bridge of reported Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, the largest headwind is from the decrease in shipments, which was primarily from the Oswego fires. The shipment decrease drove an unfavorable $112 million volume impact in the quarter. The improvement in price and mix reflects higher product pricing, partially offset by product mix headwinds with lower share of automotive shipments. Costs were a favorable factor year-over-year, driven by a few items, including improved scrap prices, idled fixed costs relating to the Oswego disruption reclassed below EBITDA, and operating cost efficiency activities, partially offset by a net negative tariff impact in the current year period.
Dev Ahuja: Without those negative impacts, Adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year. Looking at the bridge of reported Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, the largest headwind is from the decrease in shipments, which was primarily from the Oswego fires. The shipment decrease drove an unfavorable $112 million volume impact in the quarter. The improvement in price and mix reflects higher product pricing, partially offset by product mix headwinds with lower share of automotive shipments. Costs were a favorable factor year-over-year, driven by a few items, including improved scrap prices, idled fixed costs relating to the Oswego disruption reclassed below EBITDA, and operating cost efficiency activities, partially offset by a net negative tariff impact in the current year period.
Speaker #5: Without those negative impacts , adjusted EBITDA would have increased significantly versus the prior year . Looking at the bridge of reported adjusted EBITDA year over year , the largest headwind is from the decrease in shipments , which was primarily from the Oswego fires .
Speaker #5: The shipment decrease drove an unfavorable $112 million volume impact in the quarter. The improvement in price and mix reflects higher product pricing, partially offset by mixed product headwinds with a lower share of automotive shipments.
Speaker #5: Costs were a favorable factor year over year , driven by a few items , including improved scrap prices , idled fixed costs relating to the Oswego Disruption , Reclast below EBITDA and operating cost efficiency activities , partially offset by a net negative tariff impact in the current year period .
Operator: Lastly, lower SG&A from SG&A efficiency actions and favorable foreign exchange are offset by other items, including an insurance claim related to the flood in Sierre in the prior year that did not recur. Let's look at Q3 performance year-over-year by region, beginning on slide 8. North America shipments were down 21% year-over-year. Automotive and beverage packaging shipments were down mainly as a result of production constraints following the Oswego fires, and as we continue the ramp-up of Logan following an upgrade earlier this year, while the decline in specialties shipments is a result of redistributing and rationalizing some capacity. The 23% decrease in Adjusted EBITDA is driven mainly by the lower volume and tariffs, partially offset by better scrap prices, higher product pricing, and cost efficiency actions. In Europe, shipments improved 16% and Adjusted EBITDA 59% compared to a soft prior year.
Dev Ahuja: Lastly, lower SG&A from SG&A efficiency actions and favorable foreign exchange are offset by other items, including an insurance claim related to the flood in Sierre in the prior year that did not recur. Let's look at Q3 performance year-over-year by region, beginning on slide 8. North America shipments were down 21% year-over-year. Automotive and beverage packaging shipments were down mainly as a result of production constraints following the Oswego fires, and as we continue the ramp-up of Logan following an upgrade earlier this year, while the decline in specialties shipments is a result of redistributing and rationalizing some capacity. The 23% decrease in Adjusted EBITDA is driven mainly by the lower volume and tariffs, partially offset by better scrap prices, higher product pricing, and cost efficiency actions. In Europe, shipments improved 16% and Adjusted EBITDA 59% compared to a soft prior year.
Speaker #5: Lastly, lower from SG&A efficiency actions and favorable foreign exchange are offset by other items, including an insurance claim related to the flood in Syr.
Speaker #5: In the prior year that did not recur. Let's look at Q3 performance year over year by region, beginning on slide eight.
Speaker #5: North America shipments were down 2,021% year over year. Automotive and beverage packaging shipments were down mainly as a result of production constraints following the Oswego fires.
Speaker #5: And as we continue the ramp-up of Logan following an upgrade earlier this year. While the decline in specialty shipments is a result of redistributing and rationalizing some capacity, the 23% decrease in adjusted EBITDA is driven mainly by the lower volume and tariffs, partially offset by better scrap prices.
Speaker #5: Higher product pricing and cost efficiency actions. In Europe, shipments improved 16%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 59% compared to a soft prior year.
Operator: Shipments increased in Beverage Packaging, Specialties, and Aerospace on higher European demand. Automotive shipments also increased, but was primarily due to higher export volumes to support North America, as European demand was muted and impacted by production disruption at one of our automotive customers earlier in the year. The improvement in EBITDA was primarily driven by the higher volume as well as favorable product prices and foreign exchange. Turning to the next slide, in Asia, total shipments grew 2% as we operated at higher levels of capacity and further shift production to support North America. Overall, slightly higher Beverage Packaging, Specialty, and Aerospace shipments were partially offset by lower shipments of automotive products. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 36% due mainly to less favorable metal benefit resulting from lower local market premiums and unfavorable metal input mix.
Dev Ahuja: Shipments increased in Beverage Packaging, Specialties, and Aerospace on higher European demand. Automotive shipments also increased, but was primarily due to higher export volumes to support North America, as European demand was muted and impacted by production disruption at one of our automotive customers earlier in the year. The improvement in EBITDA was primarily driven by the higher volume as well as favorable product prices and foreign exchange. Turning to the next slide, in Asia, total shipments grew 2% as we operated at higher levels of capacity and further shift production to support North America. Overall, slightly higher Beverage Packaging, Specialty, and Aerospace shipments were partially offset by lower shipments of automotive products. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 36% due mainly to less favorable metal benefit resulting from lower local market premiums and unfavorable metal input mix.
Speaker #5: Shipments increased in beverage packaging specialties and on higher aerospace European demand. Automotive shipments increased also, but this was primarily due to higher export volumes.
Speaker #5: To support North America, as European demand was muted and impacted by production disruption at one of our automotive customers earlier in the year.
Speaker #5: The improvement in EBITDA was primarily driven by the higher volume, as well as favorable product prices and foreign exchange. Turning to the next slide.
Speaker #5: In Asia, total shipments grew 2% as we operated at higher levels of capacity and further shifted production to support North America overall. Slightly higher beverage packaging, specialty, and aerospace shipments were partially offset by lower shipments of automotive products.
Speaker #5: Adjusted EBITDA decreased 36%, due mainly to less favorable metal benefit resulting from lower local market premiums and unfavorable metal input mix in South America. Shipments grew 2%, as higher exports of beverage packaging shipments were largely offset by lower local beverage consumption due to adverse weather conditions.
Operator: In South America, shipments grew 2% as higher exports of beverage packaging shipments were largely offset by lower local beverage consumption due to adverse weather conditions early in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA improved 7% primarily as a result of favorable metal benefit due to improved scrap prices and favorable foreign exchange, partially offset by unfavorable product mix within the beverage packaging and market. Now, let's turn to cash flow on slide 10. Year-to-date, Adjusted Free Cash Flow is an outflow of $1.6 billion compared to the prior year outflow of $915 million. The largest factor driving negative free cash flow year-to-date is rising aluminum prices pressuring working capital by approximately $600 million.
Dev Ahuja: In South America, shipments grew 2% as higher exports of beverage packaging shipments were largely offset by lower local beverage consumption due to adverse weather conditions early in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA improved 7% primarily as a result of favorable metal benefit due to improved scrap prices and favorable foreign exchange, partially offset by unfavorable product mix within the beverage packaging and market. Now, let's turn to cash flow on slide 10. Year-to-date, Adjusted Free Cash Flow is an outflow of $1.6 billion compared to the prior year outflow of $915 million. The largest factor driving negative free cash flow year-to-date is rising aluminum prices pressuring working capital by approximately $600 million.
Speaker #5: Early in the quarter, Adjusted EBITDA was up 7%, primarily as a result of favorable metal benefit due to improved scrap prices and favorable foreign exchange, partially offset by unfavorable product mix within the beverage packaging and market.
Speaker #5: Now let's turn to cash flow on slide ten . Year to date adjusted free cash flow is an outflow of $1.6 billion , compared to the prior year outflow of $915 million .
Speaker #5: The largest factor driving negative free cash flow year to date is rising aluminum prices, pressuring working capital by approximately $600 million. The cash impact from the Oswego fires is $485 million.
Operator: The cash impact from the Oswego fires is $485 million related to mostly the higher costs reflected in the other line of this bridge, as well as the impact of lower EBITDA, CapEx, and working capital. Cash flow was also impacted by higher capital expenditures, particularly for Bay Minette, but partially offset by favorable metal price lag as a result of the rise in Midwest local market premium. For fiscal 2026, we continue to expect total capital expenditures to be in the range of $1.9 to 2.2 billion, including approximately $300 million for maintenance CapEx. We ended the second quarter with a net leverage ratio of 3.7 times and liquidity of $2.6 billion. In December, we received an equity injection of $750 million from our shareholder, highlighting their strong support and confidence in Novelis as we navigate short-term cash flow pressures.
Dev Ahuja: The cash impact from the Oswego fires is $485 million related to mostly the higher costs reflected in the other line of this bridge, as well as the impact of lower EBITDA, CapEx, and working capital. Cash flow was also impacted by higher capital expenditures, particularly for Bay Minette, but partially offset by favorable metal price lag as a result of the rise in Midwest local market premium. For fiscal 2026, we continue to expect total capital expenditures to be in the range of $1.9 to 2.2 billion, including approximately $300 million for maintenance CapEx. We ended the second quarter with a net leverage ratio of 3.7 times and liquidity of $2.6 billion. In December, we received an equity injection of $750 million from our shareholder, highlighting their strong support and confidence in Novelis as we navigate short-term cash flow pressures.
Speaker #5: Related to mostly the higher cost reflected in the other line of this bridge, as well as the impact of lower EBITDA. CapEx and working capital cash flow was also impacted by higher capital expenditures, particularly for Bay Minette, but partially offset by favorable metal price lag.
Speaker #5: As a result of the rise in Midwest local market , premium . For fiscal 2026 , we continue to expect total capital expenditures to be in the range of 1.9 to $2.2 billion , including approximately 300 million for maintenance , CapEx .
Speaker #5: We ended the second quarter with a net leverage ratio liquidity of 3.7 times , and of $2.6 billion in December , we an received equity injection of $750 million from our shareholders , highlighting their strong support and confidence in Novelis as we navigate short term cash flow pressures .
Operator: Turning to the next slide, earlier this year, we set a three-year target to sustainably reduce our cost structure by $300 million through operational efficiency, footprint rationalization, and SG&A streamlining actions to build more resiliency in the business. We had also set an initial interim target to exit fiscal year 2026 at a $75 million savings run rate. Through diligent execution, we have been able to raise this FY26 exit rate guidance in each of the last three quarters. At the end of fiscal Q2, we raised this guidance to exceed $125 million. With another quarter behind us, we are again raising our near-term target and now expect to exit this fiscal year at a savings run rate above $150 million. This is a result of further acceleration of all the cost efficiency initiatives underway, particularly with SG&A streamlining activities.
Dev Ahuja: Turning to the next slide, earlier this year, we set a three-year target to sustainably reduce our cost structure by $300 million through operational efficiency, footprint rationalization, and SG&A streamlining actions to build more resiliency in the business. We had also set an initial interim target to exit fiscal year 2026 at a $75 million savings run rate. Through diligent execution, we have been able to raise this FY26 exit rate guidance in each of the last three quarters. At the end of fiscal Q2, we raised this guidance to exceed $125 million. With another quarter behind us, we are again raising our near-term target and now expect to exit this fiscal year at a savings run rate above $150 million. This is a result of further acceleration of all the cost efficiency initiatives underway, particularly with SG&A streamlining activities.
Speaker #5: Turning to the next slide. Earlier this year, we set a three-year target to sustainably reduce our cost structure by $300 million through operational efficiency, footprint rationalization, and SG&A streamlining actions to build more resiliency in the business.
Speaker #5: We had also set an initial interim target to exit fiscal year 2026 at a $75 million savings run rate through diligent execution. We have been able to raise this FY26 exit rate guidance in each of the last three quarters.
Speaker #5: At the end of fiscal Q2, we raised this guidance to exceed, with another $1.25 million quarter behind us. We are again raising our near-term target.
Speaker #5: And now expect to exit this fiscal year at a savings run rate above $1.5 million. This is a result of further acceleration of all the cost efficiency initiatives underway, particularly with SG&A streamlining activities.
Operator: We believe these actions will drive simplification, better leverage technology, and automation to gain efficiency and drive margin improvement. I'd now like to hand the call back to Steve for a market and business outlook. Thanks, Dev. Now, let's take a look at our in-market outlook on slide 13. Starting with our largest in-market, Beverage Packaging. Long- and near-term demand for aluminum beverage packaging remains strong across regions and continues to be driven largely by favorable package mix shift towards aluminum. In automotive, long-term demand remains positive as aluminum continues to win in the marketplace, offering significant advantages for lightweighting over other materials. Near-term capacity constraints aside, we see demand continue to grow for aluminum content, SUVs, and pickup trucks in North America, while demand in Europe has stabilized, although at a muted level due to soft macroeconomic environment.
Dev Ahuja: We believe these actions will drive simplification, better leverage technology, and automation to gain efficiency and drive margin improvement. I'd now like to hand the call back to Steve for a market and business outlook.
Speaker #5: We believe these actions will drive simplification, better leverage technology and automation to gain efficiency, and drive margin improvement. I'd now like to hand the call back to Steve for a market and business outlook.
Steve Fisher: Thanks, Dev. Now, let's take a look at our in-market outlook on slide 13. Starting with our largest in-market, Beverage Packaging. Long- and near-term demand for aluminum beverage packaging remains strong across regions and continues to be driven largely by favorable package mix shift towards aluminum. In automotive, long-term demand remains positive as aluminum continues to win in the marketplace, offering significant advantages for lightweighting over other materials. Near-term capacity constraints aside, we see demand continue to grow for aluminum content, SUVs, and pickup trucks in North America, while demand in Europe has stabilized, although at a muted level due to soft macroeconomic environment.
Speaker #4: Thanks , Steve . Now let's take a look at our in-market outlook on slide 13 . Starting with our largest in-market beverage packaging , long and near-term beverage aluminum demand for packaging remains strong across regions and continues to be driven largely by favorable package mix shift towards aluminum in automotive , long term demand remains positive as aluminum continues to win in the marketplace , offering significant advantages for lightweighting over other materials .
Speaker #4: Near-term capacity constraints aside , we see demand continue to grow for aluminum content , SUVs , and pickup trucks in North America , while demand in Europe has stabilized .
Operator: Turning to aerospace, structural demand for new aircraft sustains the aluminum aerospace plate and sheet market over the long term, and we are encouraged to hear some cautiously optimistic commentary from OEMs regarding ongoing supply chain challenges. And lastly, for specialties, demand in the building and construction market has modestly improved, although still at suppressed levels. Meanwhile, economic and tariff uncertainty continue to mute demand in some markets, such as truck trailer, batteries, and light gauge products. Turning to slide 14. As evidenced now more than ever, the aluminum industry needs more domestic capacity to meet growing customer demand for aluminum products. And we're adding this capacity now with our investment in Bay Minette. Once commissioned, Novelis will be the only aluminum producer with three hot mills in the US that are capable of supplying technically demanding premium products to the growing beverage packaging, automotive, and industrial markets.
Steve Fisher: Turning to aerospace, structural demand for new aircraft sustains the aluminum aerospace plate and sheet market over the long term, and we are encouraged to hear some cautiously optimistic commentary from OEMs regarding ongoing supply chain challenges. And lastly, for specialties, demand in the building and construction market has modestly improved, although still at suppressed levels. Meanwhile, economic and tariff uncertainty continue to mute demand in some markets, such as truck trailer, batteries, and light gauge products. Turning to slide 14. As evidenced now more than ever, the aluminum industry needs more domestic capacity to meet growing customer demand for aluminum products. And we're adding this capacity now with our investment in Bay Minette. Once commissioned, Novelis will be the only aluminum producer with three hot mills in the US that are capable of supplying technically demanding premium products to the growing beverage packaging, automotive, and industrial markets.
Speaker #4: Although at a muted level due to soft macroeconomic , soft macroeconomic environment . Turning to aerospace structural demand for new aircraft sustains the aluminum aerospace plate and sheet market over the long term , and we are encouraged to hear some cautiously optimistic commentary from OEMs regarding ongoing supply chain challenges .
Speaker #4: And lastly , for specialties , demand in the building and construction market has modestly improved , although still at a suppressed levels . Meanwhile , economic and tariff uncertainty continue to meet demand in some as truck trailer batteries and light gauge products .
Speaker #4: Turning to slide 14. As evidenced now more than ever, the aluminum industry needs more domestic capacity to meet growing customer demand for aluminum products, and we're adding this capacity now with our investment in Bay Minette.
Speaker #4: Commissioned once, we will be the only aluminum producer in the US with three hot mills that are technically capable of supplying the growing demand for premium, demanding products.
Operator: This highly sophisticated and automated plant will add 600 kilotons of finished goods capacity to the undersupplied US market. We anticipate that approximately two-thirds of the production at this plant will be for the North American Beverage Packaging market, and the remaining capacity will primarily be targeted to the Automotive market with flexibility for specialties products. We have secured long-term contracts for all the new Beverage Packaging capacity at this plant and continue to make good progress on the Automotive contracting side. Total project capital expenditures through the end of the Q3 totaled $2.7 billion. The next several months will be full of exciting construction and operational milestones. We're on track to commission the Cold Mill next month, with full project commissioning beginning in the second half of this calendar year. In summary, underlying market fundamentals remain positive.
Steve Fisher: This highly sophisticated and automated plant will add 600 kilotons of finished goods capacity to the undersupplied US market. We anticipate that approximately two-thirds of the production at this plant will be for the North American Beverage Packaging market, and the remaining capacity will primarily be targeted to the Automotive market with flexibility for specialties products. We have secured long-term contracts for all the new Beverage Packaging capacity at this plant and continue to make good progress on the Automotive contracting side. Total project capital expenditures through the end of the Q3 totaled $2.7 billion. The next several months will be full of exciting construction and operational milestones. We're on track to commission the Cold Mill next month, with full project commissioning beginning in the second half of this calendar year. In summary, underlying market fundamentals remain positive.
Speaker #4: Beverage packaging, automotive, and industrial markets. This highly sophisticated and automated plant will add 600 kilotons of finished goods capacity to the under-supplied US market.
Speaker #4: We anticipate that approximately two-thirds of the production at this plant will be for the North American beverage packaging market, and the remaining capacity will primarily be targeted to the automotive market, with flexibility for specialty products.
Speaker #4: We have secured long contracts for all the new beverage packaging capacity at this plant, and continue to make good progress on the automotive contracting side.
Speaker #4: Total project capital expenditures through the end of the third quarter totaled $2.7 billion. The next several months will be full of exciting construction and operational milestones.
Speaker #4: We're on track to commission the coal mill next month, with full project commissioning beginning in the second half of this calendar year. In summary.
Operator: We see continued favorable demand trends across regions, with particular strength in the beverage packaging market. Overall scrap prices continue to trend in a positive direction. We remain laser-focused on the things we can control. Our cost efficiency program is yielding positive results, and we once again raise our guidance to exit this fiscal year 2026 at a run rate savings over $150 million. Our tariff mitigation plan is on track. We are dedicating the full strength of our resources to Oswego recovery, with a hot mill restart expected late in Q2 of this calendar year, leveraging our global footprint and third-party sources to minimize customer impact in the meantime. We are making significant progress advancing our investment at Bay Minette in the US to further diversify our production capabilities, drive value, and capture growing demand for sustainable aluminum products.
Steve Fisher: We see continued favorable demand trends across regions, with particular strength in the beverage packaging market. Overall scrap prices continue to trend in a positive direction. We remain laser-focused on the things we can control. Our cost efficiency program is yielding positive results, and we once again raise our guidance to exit this fiscal year 2026 at a run rate savings over $150 million. Our tariff mitigation plan is on track. We are dedicating the full strength of our resources to Oswego recovery, with a hot mill restart expected late in Q2 of this calendar year, leveraging our global footprint and third-party sources to minimize customer impact in the meantime. We are making significant progress advancing our investment at Bay Minette in the US to further diversify our production capabilities, drive value, and capture growing demand for sustainable aluminum products.
Speaker #4: Underlying market fundamentals remain positive. We see continued favorable demand trends across regions, with particular strength in the beverage packaging market and overall scrap price.
Speaker #4: Prices continue to trend in a positive direction. We remain laser focused on the things we can control. Our cost efficiency program is yielding positive results, and we once again raise our guidance to exit this fiscal year 2026 at a run rate.
Speaker #4: Savings of over $150 million in our tariff mitigation plan is on track. We are dedicating the full strength of our resources to Oswego recovery, with a hot mill restart expected late in the second quarter of this calendar year.
Speaker #4: Leveraging our global footprint and third party sources to minimize customer impact . In the meantime , and we are making significant progress advancing our investment at Bay Minette in the to further US diversify our production capabilities , drive value and capture growing demand for sustainable aluminum products .
Operator: With that, we are happy to take your questions, and I'll turn it back over to the operator. Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow as many as possible to ask questions. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Vaibhav Doshi with J.P. Morgan. Please receive your question. Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity.
Steve Fisher: With that, we are happy to take your questions, and I'll turn it back over to the operator.
Operator: Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow as many as possible to ask questions. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Vibhav Zutshi with J.P. Morgan. Please receive your question. Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity.
Speaker #4: With that, we are happy to take your questions, and I'll turn it back over to the operator.
Speaker #2: Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to allow as many as possible to ask questions.
Speaker #2: If you'd like to ask a question, please press telephone star one on your keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.
Speaker #2: You may press star two. If you would like to remove your question from the queue, press star two again. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.
Speaker #2: And our first question comes from the line of Vibhav Zushi with JP Morgan. Thank you. Please proceed with your question.
Operator: Just on the planned restart timeline of late Q2, just wanted to get a sense on your confidence level because one of your automotive customers yesterday provided a very broad range of May to September. And also, if you could just highlight if there is any risk of market share loss because they've also said that they have contingent plans to secure supply. Thank you. Yeah. So thanks for the question. Obviously, the second fire had a different type of impact than the first fire, damaging the actual finishing mill more severely. So the complications of repairing the mill is driving much of this timeline. Everything that we see in the current timeline leads us to a start date at the late part of the second quarter.
Vibhav Zutshi: Just on the planned restart timeline of late Q2, just wanted to get a sense on your confidence level because one of your automotive customers yesterday provided a very broad range of May to September. And also, if you could just highlight if there is any risk of market share loss because they've also said that they have contingent plans to secure supply. Thank you.
Speaker #6: Yes .
Speaker #6: Just for the Hi . Thanks opportunity . on . the plan . Planned restart . Timeline of late Q2 to get of a sense wanting confidence level because one of your automotive customers yesterday broad provide a very range of May to September and also , if you could just highlight if there is any risk of market share loss because they've also said that they have contingent plans to secure supply .
Steve Fisher: Yeah. So thanks for the question. Obviously, the second fire had a different type of impact than the first fire, damaging the actual finishing mill more severely. So the complications of repairing the mill is driving much of this timeline. Everything that we see in the current timeline leads us to a start date at the late part of the second quarter.
Speaker #6: Thank you .
Speaker #4: Yeah, so thanks for the question. Obviously, the second fire had a different type of impact than the first fire, damaging the actual finishing mill.
Speaker #4: More severely. Complications of repairing the mill are driving much of this timeline. You know, everything that we see in the current timeline leads us to a start date at the late part of the second quarter.
Operator: From there, we have to work with our customers as far as qualification and complete ramp-up as we transition off some of the Hot Band that was coming in from other supplies into the Oswego plant, too. So from a confidence level, we see ability to hit this date. We're going to do everything we can to accelerate the date, but right now, with full transparency, this is where we believe we will be from a startup standpoint. As it relates to, I think, the second part of the question or second question was more on longer-term impacts as it relates to this fire. As you can see, the overall this Oswego fire incident is pressuring capacities in the North American market space and shows the absolute requirements needed in this industry to bring more capacity to bear.
Steve Fisher: From there, we have to work with our customers as far as qualification and complete ramp-up as we transition off some of the Hot Band that was coming in from other supplies into the Oswego plant, too. So from a confidence level, we see ability to hit this date. We're going to do everything we can to accelerate the date, but right now, with full transparency, this is where we believe we will be from a startup standpoint. As it relates to, I think, the second part of the question or second question was more on longer-term impacts as it relates to this fire. As you can see, the overall this Oswego fire incident is pressuring capacities in the North American market space and shows the absolute requirements needed in this industry to bring more capacity to bear.
Speaker #4: From there , we have to work with our customers . As far as qualification and complete ramp up . As we transition off some of the hot band that was coming in from other supplies into the Oswego plant too .
Speaker #4: So from a confidence level , we see , we see ability to hit this date . We're going to do we can everything to accelerate the date .
Speaker #4: But right now , with full transparency , this is where where we believe we will be from a start up standpoint as it relates to , I think the second part of the question or second question was more on longer term impacts as it relates to this fire .
Speaker #4: As you can see, the overall Oswego fire incident is pressuring capacities in the North American market space and shows the, you know, the absolute requirements needed in this industry to bring more capacity to bear.
Operator: That is exactly what we're doing with the Bay Minette investment that we'll be commissioning second half of this calendar year, 2026. I think that as you think about aluminum as a choice and the capacity constraints in the marketplace, I do believe OEMs are recognizing the significant advantages of aluminum over other materials. Strength-to-weight ratio enables better agility, braking, higher payload, towing capacity, among other benefits. As I said, we're addressing the long-term supply concerns in North America with new capacity that will complete second half of 2026. And with that capacity, Novelis will be the only producer with three U.S. hot mills capable of producing automotive and other specialty sheets. So we're confident that aluminum will continue to grow and that Novelis, through our scale and capabilities and commitment to quality and innovation, remains the best choice for our customers. Okay. Got it.
Steve Fisher: That is exactly what we're doing with the Bay Minette investment that we'll be commissioning second half of this calendar year, 2026. I think that as you think about aluminum as a choice and the capacity constraints in the marketplace, I do believe OEMs are recognizing the significant advantages of aluminum over other materials. Strength-to-weight ratio enables better agility, braking, higher payload, towing capacity, among other benefits. As I said, we're addressing the long-term supply concerns in North America with new capacity that will complete second half of 2026. And with that capacity, Novelis will be the only producer with three U.S. hot mills capable of producing automotive and other specialty sheets. So we're confident that aluminum will continue to grow and that Novelis, through our scale and capabilities and commitment to quality and innovation, remains the best choice for our customers.
Speaker #4: That is exactly what we're doing with the Bay . Minette that investment will be commissioning second half of this calendar year 2026 . I think that , you know , as you think about aluminum as a choice and the capacity constraints in the marketplace , I do believe OEMs recognizing the significant advantages of aluminum over other materials , strength to ratio weight , enables better agility .
Speaker #4: You know , breaking higher payload , towing capacity , among other benefits . You know , as I said , we're addressing the long term supply concerns in North America with new capacity that will complete second half of 2026 .
Speaker #4: And with that capacity, Novelis will be the only producer with three U.S. hot mills capable of producing automotive and other specialty sheets.
Speaker #4: So, you know, we're confident that aluminum will continue to grow and that Novelis, through our scale, capabilities, and commitment to quality and innovation, remains the best choice for our customers.
Vibhav Zutshi: Okay. Got it. If I can just ask one more question, could there be more equity infusion by the parent? Because obviously, leverage ratios started increasing, and there is still $2.3 billion of CapEx to be spent on Bay Minette. And obviously, with the Oswego impact, EBITDA is going to be a bit impacted. So yeah, I just wanted to get some thoughts on how you've seen it, the EBITDA trending here over the next 2, 3 quarters, and if there could be more equity infusion by the parent. Thank you.
Operator: If I can just ask one more question, could there be more equity infusion by the parent? Because obviously, leverage ratios started increasing, and there is still $2.3 billion of CapEx to be spent on Bay Minette. And obviously, with the Oswego impact, EBITDA is going to be a bit impacted. So yeah, I just wanted to get some thoughts on how you've seen it, the EBITDA trending here over the next 2, 3 quarters, and if there could be more equity infusion by the parent. Thank you. Yeah, Dev, thanks. Thanks for the question again. So yes, we are in discussion with our parent about maybe another additional $200 million equity infusion. So we remain positive, and so there could be some more beyond the $750 million.
Speaker #6: Okay . Got it . And if I can just ask one more question more there be like , could infusion by the parent ?
Speaker #6: Because obviously leverage ratios have started , the ratios started increasing . And there is still , you know , $2.3 billion of CapEx to be spent on Bay Minette .
Speaker #6: And obviously with the Oswego impact , you know , EBITDA is going to be a bit impacted . So , yeah , just wanted to get some thoughts on how you feel better over the next two , three quarters .
Dev Ahuja: Yeah, Dev, thanks. Thanks for the question again. So yes, we are in discussion with our parent about maybe another additional $200 million equity infusion. So we remain positive, and so there could be some more beyond the $750 million.
Speaker #6: And more equity by the infusion parent. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the question again. So, yes, we are in discussion with our parent about maybe another additional $200 million equity infusion.
Speaker #5: So . We we remain positive and so there could be some more beyond the 750 million . And you know , just to give you a broader picture .
Operator: Just to give you a broader picture, I mean, this equity infusion is a bit strategic because you know that we elevated the Bay Minette CapEx when we announced the last quarter results. So this is pretty much in the direction of the elevated CapEx for Bay Minette, which we revised from 4.1 to around 5. So in the longer term, this is the equity infusion that will help us to bridge that. And in the short term, the quick infusion, the before-time infusion, will help us to navigate the liquidity pressures that are going to be caused between the time we incur the Oswego fire-related costs and the time we recover from insurance. So this is a bit of a bridging strategy, which has gone behind the thinking around the equity infusion.
Dev Ahuja: Just to give you a broader picture, I mean, this equity infusion is a bit strategic because you know that we elevated the Bay Minette CapEx when we announced the last quarter results. So this is pretty much in the direction of the elevated CapEx for Bay Minette, which we revised from 4.1 to around 5. So in the longer term, this is the equity infusion that will help us to bridge that. And in the short term, the quick infusion, the before-time infusion, will help us to navigate the liquidity pressures that are going to be caused between the time we incur the Oswego fire-related costs and the time we recover from insurance. So this is a bit of a bridging strategy, which has gone behind the thinking around the equity infusion.
Speaker #5: I mean, this equity infusion is a bit strategic because, you know, that we elevated the Bay Minette CapEx when we announced the last quarter results.
Speaker #5: So this is pretty much in the direction of the elevated CapEx for Bay Minette, which we revised from $4.1 to around $5 billion.
Speaker #5: So in the longer term , this is the equity infusion that will help us to bridge that . And in the short term , the the quick infusion , the before time infusion will help us to navigate the liquidity pressures that are going to be caused incur know , the time between .
Speaker #5: The related fire at Oswego, the time we have, and the costs—this is a bit of a strategy bridging, which has gone behind the thinking around the equity infusion.
Operator: So I hope that it gives you the picture around how we are thinking, how we and together with the parent are thinking about this. Thank you so much. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abe Landa with Bank of America. Please receive your questions. Good morning or good afternoon. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I may want to start off on the ranges that you provided on the impact of the Oswego fire. I kind of want to understand what makes you hit the low end and the high end of the EBITDA and cash flow impact, and then what is the, maybe related to that, what's the difference between that cash flow number and the EBITDA number? I kind of want to reconcile all those differences. No, I can help you figure that direction.
Dev Ahuja: So I hope that it gives you the picture around how we are thinking, how we and together with the parent are thinking about this.
Vibhav Zutshi: Thank you so much.
Speaker #5: So, I hope that it gives you the picture around how we are thinking—how we, and together with the parent, are thinking about this.
Steve Fisher: Thank you.
Operator: The next question is from the line of Abe Landa with Bank of America. Please receive your questions.
Speaker #6: Thank you so much .
Abe Landa: Good morning or good afternoon. Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I may want to start off on the ranges that you provided on the impact of the Oswego fire. I kind of want to understand what makes you hit the low end and the high end of the EBITDA and cash flow impact, and then what is the, maybe related to that, what's the difference between that cash flow number and the EBITDA number? I kind of want to reconcile all those differences.
Speaker #7: you Thank
Speaker #2: Next, the question is from the line of AB Landa with Bank of America. Pleased to see you for your questions.
Speaker #8: Good morning or good afternoon . Good evening . Thank you for taking my questions . I want to start off on on the ranges that you provided on the impact of the Oswego Fire of want to .
Speaker #8: Understand, like, I kind of... What makes you hit the low end and the high end of the EBITDA and cash flow impact?
Dev Ahuja: No, I can help you figure that direction. So essentially, we are at kind of early to a mid-stage of remediation, and to have perfect visibility is at this stage a bit of a challenge. So we are giving a range to take care of sort of things that may have to be done to get to the full repairs and restoration. Also, remember that this also includes the cost that we will incur to do our best. I mean, we are doing our best stretching ourselves in every direction to mitigate the gap that the Oswego fires have caused in terms of material and supply chain, in terms of material and supply chain. So we are using our plant. We are using third-party sources to supply as much as we can in order to keep customers whole. And it is right now very challenging to come to a more precise estimate.
Speaker #8: And then what is the—maybe related to that—like, what's the difference between that cash flow number and the EBITDA I kind of want number?
Speaker #8: to reconcile all those differences.
Operator: So essentially, we are at kind of early to a mid-stage of remediation, and to have perfect visibility is at this stage a bit of a challenge. So we are giving a range to take care of sort of things that may have to be done to get to the full repairs and restoration. Also, remember that this also includes the cost that we will incur to do our best. I mean, we are doing our best stretching ourselves in every direction to mitigate the gap that the Oswego fires have caused in terms of material and supply chain, in terms of material and supply chain. So we are using our plant. We are using third-party sources to supply as much as we can in order to keep customers whole. And it is right now very challenging to come to a more precise estimate.
Speaker #5: No , I can help you figure that direction . So we are at kind of , you know , early to a mid stage of remediation and to have perfect visibility is at this stage a bit of a challenge .
Speaker #5: you know , we are So , giving a range to take care of , you of things that know , sort may have to be done to get to the full repairs and restoration .
Speaker #5: Also, remember that this also includes the cost that we will incur to do our best. I mean, we are at our best, stretching ourselves in every direction to, to, to gap that the Oswego fires have cost in terms of material and supply chain, in terms of material and supply chain.
Speaker #5: So , so , you know , our plant . we are We are using third party using sources supply as to much as we can in order to keep customers whole and it is right now , you know , very challenging to a more to come precise estimate .
Operator: So those are all the reasons behind giving this kind of a range. So what sits in this range is the cost to serve, if I may say. It is the repairs cost. It is the CapEx cost. And then some of the idle costs during the period when the plant is not that part of the plant is not running. So that is really why the range. I hope that helps. The second question was on EBITDA impact. Yeah. So the EBITDA impact, what you see here is a net $54 million, which is included in this total CapEx impact, sorry, the fire impact of $485 million. And what is this EBITDA impact? It is basically the volumes that we are losing, the volumes that we are not able to supply to customers.
Dev Ahuja: So those are all the reasons behind giving this kind of a range. So what sits in this range is the cost to serve, if I may say. It is the repairs cost. It is the CapEx cost. And then some of the idle costs during the period when the plant is not that part of the plant is not running. So that is really why the range. I hope that helps. The second question was on EBITDA impact. Yeah. So the EBITDA impact, what you see here is a net $54 million, which is included in this total CapEx impact, sorry, the fire impact of $485 million. And what is this EBITDA impact? It is basically the volumes that we are losing, the volumes that we are not able to supply to customers.
Speaker #5: those are all the So reasons behind giving this kind of a range . So , so what sits in this range is the cost to serve , if I may say it is a repair cost .
Speaker #5: It is it is a CapEx cost . And then some of the idle you costs , know , to to , you know , during the period when the plant is not that part of the plant is not running .
Speaker #5: So that is really why the range. I hope that helps.
Speaker #4: on EBITDA
Speaker #5: Yeah . So the EBITDA Second question was impact , what you see a net here is 54 million , which is included in this in this total CapEx impact .
Speaker #5: Sorry , the fire impact of 45 million . And what is this EBITDA impact ? It is basically the volumes that we losing , the volumes are that we are not able to supply to customers .
Operator: The impact would have been much higher, but a lot of it is being covered, as I said earlier, through third-party and owned plants around the world. So what is left uncovered, less the idle fixed cost, is really what is contained in this EBITDA impact of $54 million. So it is the net impact. Net of fixed cost. Sorry. I mean, it is the net impact. I mean, net of fixed cost of the 72 KT gap in the volume that is driven by the Oswego fire. Okay. And that $150 to 200 is just the net impact of the lost volume. And essentially, that difference between that and the cash flow of $1.3 to 1.6 is cost to repair or cost to sourcing alternative hot band, etc.? No, I mean, could be any of the elements.
Dev Ahuja: The impact would have been much higher, but a lot of it is being covered, as I said earlier, through third-party and owned plants around the world. So what is left uncovered, less the idle fixed cost, is really what is contained in this EBITDA impact of $54 million. So it is the net impact. Net of fixed cost. Sorry. I mean, it is the net impact. I mean, net of fixed cost of the 72 KT gap in the volume that is driven by the Oswego fire. Okay. And that $150 to 200 is just the net impact of the lost volume. And essentially, that difference between that and the cash flow of $1.3 to 1.6 is cost to repair or cost to sourcing alternative hot band, etc.? No, I mean, could be any of the elements.
Speaker #5: The impact would have been much higher , but a lot of it is being covered . As I said through earlier , third party and owned owned plants around the world .
Speaker #5: what is So left ? Less the uncovered idle fixed cost is really what is contained in this , in this EBITDA impact of 54 million .
Speaker #5: So it is a net impact net of fixed cost . Sorry . I mean it is the is it net impact . I mean net of fixed cost of the 72 kt , you know , gap in the volume that is driven by the Oswego fire .
Speaker #8: Okay. And that $150 to $200 is just the net impact of the lost volume. And essentially, that difference between—and that cash flow of $1.3 to $1.6 [billion] is cost to repair or cost to [operate].
Operator: We are working on the best estimates at this moment. So that is why the best we can do is give a range, but it could be coming from different elements given the stage at which we are for the restoration. But what you got on the 150 to 200 is exactly the right thing. I mean, this is what is the 54 in the quarter, and this is what will be the 150 to 200 in terms of how and why it arises. But to be clear, the $1.3 to 1.6 billion is inclusive of everything, including the EBITDA. So yes. So basically, the $495 million of the quarter includes the pre-tax EBITDA of $54 million. Okay. Net leverage is 3.7 currently. I guess, where do we see leverage peaking kind of considering everything that we've discussed?
Dev Ahuja: We are working on the best estimates at this moment. So that is why the best we can do is give a range, but it could be coming from different elements given the stage at which we are for the restoration. But what you got on the 150 to 200 is exactly the right thing. I mean, this is what is the 54 in the quarter, and this is what will be the 150 to 200 in terms of how and why it arises. But to be clear, the $1.3 to 1.6 billion is inclusive of everything, including the EBITDA. So yes. So basically, the $495 million of the quarter includes the pre-tax EBITDA of $54 million. Okay. Net leverage is 3.7 currently. I guess, where do we see leverage peaking kind of considering everything that we've discussed?
Speaker #8: sourcing alternative
Speaker #9: Etc. .
Speaker #5: No, I mean, it could be any of the elements. You know, we are working on it. We are working on the best estimates at this moment.
Speaker #5: And so that is why the best we can do is give a range. But it could be coming from different elements.
Speaker #5: Given the stage at which we are for the restoration, what you got on the 150 to 200 is exactly the right thing.
Speaker #5: I mean , this is what is the 54 in the quarter and this is what will be the 150 to 200 . You know , in terms of how , how and why it arises .
Speaker #4: But to be clear, the $1.3 to $1.6 is inclusive of everything, including.
Speaker #5: Including the EBITDA . So . So , yes . So basically the 495 of the quarter includes the pre-tax EBITDA of 54 million .
Speaker #8: Okay , net net leverage is three spot seven . Currently . I guess . Where do we see peaking kind of everything considering that leverage we're we've discussed .
Operator: And then maybe can you give an early look on CapEx for fiscal 2027? Absolutely, we can. So basically, because of the combined impact of the gap between the time we incur the cost for fire remediation and the time that we get the money back, leverage will be pressured. And we think that during this time, in the next couple of quarters, leverage could be in the high 4s compared to the 3.7 that we have right now. It also includes some depressed EBITDA that will be caused between the time that the EBITDA is impacted and between the time we get the insurance recovery. So it's an impact. It's an impact on the net debt because of the fire-related recovery costs. And it's a bit of an impact on the pressure on EBITDA until the time we get the insurance payback.
Operator: And then maybe can you give an early look on CapEx for fiscal 2027? Absolutely, we can. So basically, because of the combined impact of the gap between the time we incur the cost for fire remediation and the time that we get the money back, leverage will be pressured. And we think that during this time, in the next couple of quarters, leverage could be in the high 4s compared to the 3.7 that we have right now. It also includes some depressed EBITDA that will be caused between the time that the EBITDA is impacted and between the time we get the insurance recovery. So it's an impact. It's an impact on the net debt because of the fire-related recovery costs. And it's a bit of an impact on the pressure on EBITDA until the time we get the insurance payback.
Speaker #8: And then maybe, can you give a look on early CapEx for fiscal 2027?
Speaker #5: Absolutely . We can . So basically , because of the combined impact of , you know , the gap between the time we incur the cost for fire remediation and the time that we get the money back , leverage will be pressured and we think that during this time in the next couple of quarters , leverage could be in the high force in the in the high for compared to the compared to the the 3.7 that we have right now .
Speaker #5: It also includes some depressed EBITDA that will be caused between the time that, you know, the EBITDA is impacted and the time we get the insurance. So, it's recovery.
Speaker #5: an impact . It's an impact on the net debt because of the fire related costs . And it's a bit of an recovery impact on the pressure on EBITDA until the time we get the insurance payback .
Operator: So that will be the thing. Now, so hi, folks. Now, just to complete the picture, there is absolutely no plan to go into the markets to raise any unplanned long-term debt. We will be using working capital facilities. We are working with our banks to take the ABL limits higher. So essentially, short-term, we are looking for other structured solutions to be able to navigate short-term liquidity because we know that this is really a short-term impact. So there is no plan to raise any long-term debt other than what was already planned, which is, I estimate at this time, that we will be raising about $500 million before the middle of this year. And that was planned debt raise.
Operator: So that will be the thing. Now, so hi, folks. Now, just to complete the picture, there is absolutely no plan to go into the markets to raise any unplanned long-term debt. We will be using working capital facilities. We are working with our banks to take the ABL limits higher. So essentially, short-term, we are looking for other structured solutions to be able to navigate short-term liquidity because we know that this is really a short-term impact. So there is no plan to raise any long-term debt other than what was already planned, which is, I estimate at this time, that we will be raising about $500 million before the middle of this year. And that was planned debt raise.
Speaker #5: So that will be the that will be the thing . Now . So , so high force . Now just to complete the picture , there's absolutely no plan to go into the markets to raise any unplanned long term debt .
Speaker #5: We will be using . We will be using working capital facilities . We are working with our banks to to take the ABL limits higher .
Speaker #5: So essentially short term , we are looking for other structured solutions to be able to navigate short term liquidity because we know that this is this is really a short term impact .
Speaker #5: So there is no plan to raise any long term debt . Other than what was already planned , which is which is , I estimate at this time that we will be raising about 500 million before the middle of this year .
Operator: Remember, we have $250 million lagging because we had already indicated that we will be raising $1.5 billion by the end of this fiscal year. We have raised $1.25 billion. So there's still a bit of a lag of the $250 million. So all in all, the short message of all this that I said is that there is no unplanned long-term debt raise other than the $500 million that we would have anyway been raising. So this is a full picture on how to think about leverage, liquidity, and everything. Okay. So that pro forma takes into account the additional $500 million debt raise and the $200 million from the parent equity infusion. Good way to think about it. It does. It does. Absolutely. And $27 CapEx, I know I snuck in that question. Sorry. Yeah.
Operator: Remember, we have $250 million lagging because we had already indicated that we will be raising $1.5 billion by the end of this fiscal year. We have raised $1.25 billion. So there's still a bit of a lag of the $250 million. So all in all, the short message of all this that I said is that there is no unplanned long-term debt raise other than the $500 million that we would have anyway been raising. So this is a full picture on how to think about leverage, liquidity, and everything. Okay. So that pro forma takes into account the additional $500 million debt raise and the $200 million from the parent equity infusion. Good way to think about it. It does. It does. Absolutely. And $27 CapEx, I know I snuck in that question. Sorry. Yeah.
Speaker #5: And that was that was planned debt raise . Remember , we have because , you know , 250 million lagging we had already indicated that we will be raising 1.5 billion , you know , by the end of this fiscal year .
Speaker #5: And , you know , we have raised 1250 . So there's still a bit of a lag of the 250 . So all in all , the short message of all this that I said is that there is no unplanned long term debt raise .
Speaker #5: Other than the $500 million that we would have anyway been raising. So, this is a full picture on how to think about leverage, liquidity, and everything.
Speaker #8: Okay, so that high force takes into account the additional $500 million debt raise and the $200 million from the parent equity infusion.
Operator: So broadly, directionally, broadly, I mean, we will come back with a finer guidance as we do at the end of the fiscal year. But broadly, it should be in the same range as this year's CapEx, probably a little bit lower, but kind of around the same-ish numbers. Perfect. Thank you so much. Really appreciate the color. You're welcome. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia with Kotak Securities. Please go ahead with your questions. Yeah. Good evening and good morning. Thanks for the chance. I have two set of questions. First, on Bay Minette, given now we are so close to the commissioning of Cold Mill and then eventually Hot Mill, is it possible to share what sort of commercial volume do we expect in, say, calendar year 2026 and 2027 or fiscal year, whatever? Yeah. So Sumangal, thanks for the question. Obviously, we are very close.
Operator: So broadly, directionally, broadly, I mean, we will come back with a finer guidance as we do at the end of the fiscal year. But broadly, it should be in the same range as this year's CapEx, probably a little bit lower, but kind of around the same-ish numbers. Perfect. Thank you so much. Really appreciate the color. You're welcome. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia with Kotak Securities. Please go ahead with your questions. Yeah. Good evening and good morning. Thanks for the chance. I have two set of questions. First, on Bay Minette, given now we are so close to the commissioning of Cold Mill and then eventually Hot Mill, is it possible to share what sort of commercial volume do we expect in, say, calendar year 2026 and 2027 or fiscal year, whatever? Yeah. So Sumangal, thanks for the question. Obviously, we are very close.
Speaker #8: A good way to think about it.
Speaker #9: Yes, it does. Okay. Absolutely.
Speaker #8: And 27 CapEx—I know I snuck in that question. Sorry.
Speaker #9: Yeah. So I can.
Speaker #5: Broadly directionally , broadly I mean , we will come back with a finer guidance as we do at the end of the year .
Speaker #5: fiscal broadly , But it should be in the same in the same range as this year's CapEx , probably a little bit lower .
Speaker #5: But kind of around the same, same-ish numbers.
Speaker #8: Perfect. Thank you so much. I really like the color.
Speaker #9: Red .
Speaker #2: The next question is from the line of Sumangala Navantia with Kotak Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Speaker #6: Good Yeah . evening and good morning . Thanks for the chance . I have two set of questions . First , on given .
Speaker #6: Now, we are so close to the commissioning of the Cold Mill, and then eventually the Hot Mill. Is it possible to share what sort of commercial volume to expect in '26 and '27, or fiscal year, or whatever?
Operator: Made good, solid progress: cold mill commissioning starting next quarter and then the remainder commissioning of the other assets, second half of this calendar 2026. From there, we've always said there's a qualification period with our customers. We're doing everything we can to accelerate qualification because I think all of our customers, due to the Oswego fire incident, understand how short the capacity and constraints are in the North American domestic market for production. So we'll actively work to shorten that as much as possible. And then obviously, ramping up a facility of this size and scale, we've always said really to get closer to the 600 KT is going to be 18 to 24 months to get there. We'll continue to refine and be able to give you more guidance for fiscal 2028 volumes, probably over the next quarter or so.
Operator: Made good, solid progress: cold mill commissioning starting next quarter and then the remainder commissioning of the other assets, second half of this calendar 2026. From there, we've always said there's a qualification period with our customers. We're doing everything we can to accelerate qualification because I think all of our customers, due to the Oswego fire incident, understand how short the capacity and constraints are in the North American domestic market for production. So we'll actively work to shorten that as much as possible. And then obviously, ramping up a facility of this size and scale, we've always said really to get closer to the 600 KT is going to be 18 to 24 months to get there. We'll continue to refine and be able to give you more guidance for fiscal 2028 volumes, probably over the next quarter or so.
Speaker #4: Yeah . So thanks for the question . Obviously we are very close . I've made good solid progress . Cold mill starting commissioning next quarter and then the remainder commissioning of the other assets .
Speaker #4: Second half of this calendar 2026 . From there , we've always said there's a qualification period with our customers . We're doing everything we can to accelerate qualification because I think all of our customers , due to the Oswego Fire incident , understand how short the the capacity and constraints are in the North American domestic market for production .
Speaker #4: So we're actively working to shorten that as much as possible. And then, obviously, ramping up a facility of this size and scale.
Speaker #4: We've always said, really, to get closer to the 600 kt is going to be 18 to 24 months to get there.
Speaker #4: We'll continue to refine and be able to give you more guidance for fiscal '28 volumes, probably over the next quarter or so.
Operator: You should expect no sales volumes for fiscal 2027 off the facility. The last part of fiscal 2027 will be qualification. Again, we'll do everything to shorten that, but that's the best guidance we can give today. Okay. Okay. That's very precise and clear. Steve or Dave, we just spent around 55-odd% of the CapEx. I mean, generally, I mean, how confident are we of containing within $5 billion or any risk of inflation there? Yeah. So we stay confident in the $5 billion estimate that we upped last quarter. Obviously, when we think about the risk associated with $5 billion, it's all about execution. The more we execute each and every day to get to the full commissioning of the plant, we get more and more comfortable with that $5 billion. And so every week, we're getting much more confident there.
Operator: You should expect no sales volumes for fiscal 2027 off the facility. The last part of fiscal 2027 will be qualification. Again, we'll do everything to shorten that, but that's the best guidance we can give today. Okay. Okay. That's very precise and clear. Steve or Dave, we just spent around 55-odd% of the CapEx. I mean, generally, I mean, how confident are we of containing within $5 billion or any risk of inflation there? Yeah. So we stay confident in the $5 billion estimate that we upped last quarter. Obviously, when we think about the risk associated with $5 billion, it's all about execution. The more we execute each and every day to get to the full commissioning of the plant, we get more and more comfortable with that $5 billion. And so every week, we're getting much more confident there.
Speaker #4: There, you should expect no sales volumes for fiscal '27 off the facility. The last part of fiscal '27 will be qualification.
Speaker #4: Again, we’ll do everything to shorten that. But that’s the best guidance we can give today.
Speaker #6: Okay , okay . That's very precise and clear and Steve or Dave , we've spent just around 55% of the CapEx . I mean , generally , I mean , how confident are we of containing within $5 billion or any risk of inflation ?
Speaker #6: There ?
Speaker #4: Yeah. So we stay confident in the $5 billion estimate that we upped last quarter. Obviously, we think when about the risks associated with $5 billion, it's all about execution.
Speaker #4: The more we execute each and every day to get to the full commissioning of the plant, you know, we get more and more comfortable with that $5 billion.
Operator: As far as spend, the $2.7 billion has been spent through Q3. The remaining, I think you can think about coming out $600 million in this quarter. So we should be somewhere a little about $3 billion for this fiscal year. Yeah. And then we'll leave a little less than $2 billion remaining to be spent. Yeah. Through fiscal 2027. Yeah. And it could overflow into the next fiscal because not all payments are going to necessarily happen with the commissioning of the project. There are some retention payments and other things. So that's how you should think, Sumangal. Understood. Understood. My second set of questions on Oswego. So if you see between last quarter to this quarter, there is a very substantial increase in CCAS2 impact, almost 2.5x, and also EBITDA and volumes. So is it a better assessment of September fire, or is it the contribution of November fire?
Operator: As far as spend, the $2.7 billion has been spent through Q3. The remaining, I think you can think about coming out $600 million in this quarter. So we should be somewhere a little about $3 billion for this fiscal year. Yeah. And then we'll leave a little less than $2 billion remaining to be spent. Yeah. Through fiscal 2027. Yeah. And it could overflow into the next fiscal because not all payments are going to necessarily happen with the commissioning of the project. There are some retention payments and other things. So that's how you should think, Sumangal. Understood. Understood. My second set of questions on Oswego. So if you see between last quarter to this quarter, there is a very substantial increase in CCAS2 impact, almost 2.5x, and also EBITDA and volumes. So is it a better assessment of September fire, or is it the contribution of November fire?
Speaker #4: And so every week we're getting much more confident there. As far as spent, the $2.7 billion has been spent through Q3.
Speaker #4: The remaining, I think you can think about.
Speaker #5: This is it in this quarter. So, we should be somewhere a little above $3 billion for this fiscal year.
Speaker #9: Yeah . And then .
Speaker #5: There is a little less than $2 billion remaining to be spent.
Speaker #4: Through fiscal 27 .
Speaker #9: Yeah .
Speaker #5: And it could go into the next fiscal because not all payments are necessarily going to happen with the commissioning of the project. There are some retention payments and other things.
Speaker #5: So that’s how you should think—some angle.
Speaker #6: Understood . Understood . My second set of questions on Oswego . So if you see between last quarter to this quarter , there is a very substantial increase in free cash flow impact , almost 2.5 x and also EBITDA and volumes .
Operator: I just want to understand that. No, there is no, I mean, the range that we gave you for the September fire was pretty much spot-on. So no, it is not like we had some revised numbers from the Oswego first fire. We told you a range of 550 to 650. We fell pretty much in that range, pretty much in that range. So no, everything incremental is largely the second fire and some fine-tuning in the range of the first fire, nothing more. Okay. So the November fire was far more damaging, it looks like, right? Got it. Yeah. It wasn't as well. So remember, sorry, excuse me. No, no, no. Listen, the November fire, basically so this is also related to the period of restoration.
Operator: I just want to understand that. No, there is no, I mean, the range that we gave you for the September fire was pretty much spot-on. So no, it is not like we had some revised numbers from the Oswego first fire. We told you a range of 550 to 650. We fell pretty much in that range, pretty much in that range. So no, everything incremental is largely the second fire and some fine-tuning in the range of the first fire, nothing more. Okay. So the November fire was far more damaging, it looks like, right? Got it. Yeah. It wasn't as well. So remember, sorry, excuse me. No, no, no. Listen, the November fire, basically so this is also related to the period of restoration.
Speaker #6: So is it an assessment of September fire, or is it the contribution of November fire? Just trying to understand that.
Speaker #9: No , there is .
Speaker #5: No, there is no, you know, I mean, the range that we gave you for the September fire was pretty much spot on.
Speaker #5: no , So it is not like we had some revised numbers from the from the , from the Oswego first fire . We told you a range of five 55 , 50 to 650 .
Speaker #5: We felt pretty much in that range pretty much in that range . So no , everything incremental is largely the second fire and some fine tuning in the range of the first fire , nothing more .
Speaker #6: Okay, so the November fire was far more damaging. Looks like it, right. Got it.
Speaker #9: Got it. So, remember... Sorry, excuse me. No, no, no.
Operator: Because the earlier fire was on the roof, largely leaving the plant floor largely undamaged or minimal damages, while this fire was on the floor, means that it takes a little bit longer to do the cabling, the restoration of all the systems, and the equipment. So that takes a little bit longer. Also, that means that we have a longer period to serve. The longer period to serve means more external material procurement or more logistics cost to reset the supply chain. So you should think about it that way. Yes, you can say the impact of the second fire is sort of more. But largely, what you have to think about is that the restoration period got kind of more extended because of the location where the fire took place. And that also results in more cost. Understood. That's very clear.
Speaker #5: Listen , the the November basically . So this is also related to the period of fire restoration . And because this the earlier fire was on the roof largely leaving the plant floor , a largely , you know , sort of largely undamaged or minimal damages .
Operator: Because the earlier fire was on the roof, largely leaving the plant floor largely undamaged or minimal damages, while this fire was on the floor, means that it takes a little bit longer to do the cabling, the restoration of all the systems, and the equipment. So that takes a little bit longer. Also, that means that we have a longer period to serve. The longer period to serve means more external material procurement or more logistics cost to reset the supply chain. So you should think about it that way. Yes, you can say the impact of the second fire is sort of more. But largely, what you have to think about is that the restoration period got kind of more extended because of the location where the fire took place. And that also results in more cost. Understood. That's very clear.
Speaker #5: this While fire was on the floor means that it takes a little bit longer to do the cabling . The restoration of all the systems , you know , and the equipment , so that takes a little bit longer and also .
Speaker #5: That means that we have a bigger and longer period to serve. And the longer period means we need to serve more external material procurement or incur more logistics costs to reset the supply chain.
Speaker #5: So you should think about it that way . Yes , you can say the impact of the second fire is , is , is , you know , sort of more .
Speaker #5: But largely, what you have to think about is that the restoration period got kind of more extended because of the location where the fire took place.
Speaker #5: And that also results in more cost.
Operator: I want to understand, at what point of time will we be able to ascertain that the 70% to 80% of the recovery from insurance range? So from a cash flow perspective, since we are starting, say, in the next 6 months, after that, when do we receive the insurance inflow or recovery? Yeah. So this is a continuous process. It takes time. We have already started getting the money. We have already gotten $50 million already in Q4. And we wouldn't be surprised if we get some more money also. So the money from insurance has started to flow in. We are working very, very closely and diligently with our insurers. The process is going in a very good way. But to sort of look, we will just keep you informed with the best transparency that we get on an ongoing basis is what I can say.
Operator: I want to understand, at what point of time will we be able to ascertain that the 70% to 80% of the recovery from insurance range? So from a cash flow perspective, since we are starting, say, in the next 6 months, after that, when do we receive the insurance inflow or recovery? Yeah. So this is a continuous process. It takes time. We have already started getting the money. We have already gotten $50 million already in Q4. And we wouldn't be surprised if we get some more money also. So the money from insurance has started to flow in. We are working very, very closely and diligently with our insurers. The process is going in a very good way. But to sort of look, we will just keep you informed with the best transparency that we get on an ongoing basis is what I can say.
Speaker #6: Understood. That's very clear. I want to understand at what point in time we will be able to ascertain that the 70 to 80% of the recovery from insurance is in range.
Speaker #6: So from a cash flow perspective , since you are starting , say , next nine , six months after that , when do we receive the insurance inflow or recovery ?
Speaker #9: Yeah. So, this is.
Speaker #5: It’s a continuous process. It takes time. We have already started getting the money. We have already gotten $50 million in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #5: And we wouldn't be surprised if we get some more money also. So the money from insurance has started to flow in. We are working very, very closely and diligently with our insurers.
Speaker #5: The process is going very in a good way , but to , you know , sort of look , we will just keep you informed with the best transparency that we get on an ongoing basis .
Operator: This process is going to be a prolonged process, 15 months to 18 months. Money will keep coming progressively. It's not like suddenly at the end of 15 or 18 months, we'll get a big amount. Money keeps coming as we go through the process on a continual basis. So we will just keep you informed with the best possible transparency as we go along. Understood. And what sort of? I mean, so the difference between the EBITDA and the free cash flow, we will say, at midpoint, $1.45 billion and $175 million. If I understood the previous answer correctly, it's the difference between the CapEx and the OpEx, right? Otherwise, ongoing repairs and maybe capitalizing, that is the free cash flow impact, and the operational loss of volume is $175 million. Is that the right way to look at it? No.
Operator: This process is going to be a prolonged process, 15 months to 18 months. Money will keep coming progressively. It's not like suddenly at the end of 15 or 18 months, we'll get a big amount. Money keeps coming as we go through the process on a continual basis. So we will just keep you informed with the best possible transparency as we go along. Understood. And what sort of? I mean, so the difference between the EBITDA and the free cash flow, we will say, at midpoint, $1.45 billion and $175 million. If I understood the previous answer correctly, it's the difference between the CapEx and the OpEx, right? Otherwise, ongoing repairs and maybe capitalizing, that is the free cash flow impact, and the operational loss of volume is $175 million. Is that the right way to look at it? No.
Speaker #5: Is what I can say this process is a prolonged is going to be a prolonged process . 15 months to 18 months . Money will keep coming progressively .
Speaker #5: It's not like suddenly at the end of 15 or 18 months , we'll get a big we'll get a big amount money , money keeps coming as we go through the process on a continual basis .
Speaker #5: So, we will just keep you informed with the best possible transparency as we go along.
Speaker #6: Understood . And what sort of I mean , so the difference between the and the free flow , which you say at midpoint 1.4 5,000,000,001 $75 million , if I understood the previous answer correctly , it's the difference between the CapEx and opex , right ?
Speaker #6: Otherwise, going in repairs and maybe capitalizing that, is the free cash flow impact and the $175 million volume operational loss—is that the way to look at it?
Operator: So once again, what sits in the EBITDA, the 150 to 200, is the volumes that are lost, the net volumes that are lost, the volumes that we are not able to sort of bring back from the total production loss. That sits in EBITDA, net of fixed costs that sort of we push below the line. So that is what is sitting in the EBITDA. What sits in the net income is basically the repairs and restoration costs, the extra costs needed to procure external material, the reclassified idle costs. Those are the big items that sit in the net income. And then what sits in the free cash flow over and above that is the CapEx. So the CapEx sits on top of the net income impact. So three categories. EBITDA is the net lost volumes.
Operator: So once again, what sits in the EBITDA, the 150 to 200, is the volumes that are lost, the net volumes that are lost, the volumes that we are not able to sort of bring back from the total production loss. That sits in EBITDA, net of fixed costs that sort of we push below the line. So that is what is sitting in the EBITDA. What sits in the net income is basically the repairs and restoration costs, the extra costs needed to procure external material, the reclassified idle costs. Those are the big items that sit in the net income. And then what sits in the free cash flow over and above that is the CapEx. So the CapEx sits on top of the net income impact. So three categories. EBITDA is the net lost volumes.
Speaker #9: No .
Speaker #5: So
Speaker #5: again once , what sits in the EBITDA , the 150 to 200 is the volumes that are lost . The net volumes that are lost , are the volumes that we are able to , you sort of from the total production loss that sits in EBITDA , net of fixed costs , that , you know , sort of be pushed below the line .
Speaker #5: So that is what is sitting in EBITDA, what sits in the net income is basically the repairs and restoration costs.
Speaker #5: The extra cost needed to procure external material, you know.
Speaker #9: The .
Speaker #5: Reclassified idle costs, those are the big items that sit in net income. And then what sits in the free cash flow over and above that is the CapEx.
Operator: All the items that I listed earlier were going to the net income. And then on top of that is the CapEx, which goes into completing the total free cash flow impact. And CapEx and repairs and restoration, they can keep switching. What is to be capitalized, what is to be considered as repairs, these are all things that we go through a diligent accounting process. So that's really what it is. Okay. So the $54 million of this quarter, that is the number which you're expecting for the full impact to be around $150 to 200 million, right? Is that the right understanding? That's right. I mean, you just kind of you just kind of take something like 3x times, but yes, exactly what you said. Okay.
Operator: All the items that I listed earlier were going to the net income. And then on top of that is the CapEx, which goes into completing the total free cash flow impact. And CapEx and repairs and restoration, they can keep switching. What is to be capitalized, what is to be considered as repairs, these are all things that we go through a diligent accounting process. So that's really what it is. Okay. So the $54 million of this quarter, that is the number which you're expecting for the full impact to be around $150 to 200 million, right? Is that the right understanding? That's right. I mean, you just kind of you just kind of take something like 3x times, but yes, exactly what you said. Okay.
Speaker #5: So, CapEx sits on top of the net income impact. So three categories: EBITDA is the net lost volumes, all the items I listed earlier go into that, and then the net income.
Speaker #5: on top of that is the CapEx , which goes into completing the total free cash flow impact . And you know , CapEx and repairs and restoration , they can keep switching .
Speaker #5: You know , what is to be capitalized , what is to be considered as repairs . These are all things that we go through a diligent accounting process .
Speaker #5: So that's what it really is.
Speaker #6: Okay . So the $54 million of this quarter , that is the number that you are expecting for the full impact to be around 150 , $200 million , right ?
Speaker #6: Is that the right .
Speaker #9: Side? You know, you just—you just kind of.
Speaker #5: You of , you know , take something like something like three times . But yes , exactly what you said .
Operator: And if you look at the bridge between the reported EBITDA and the $348 million adjusted EBITDA, there is a $327 million adjustment with respect to Oswego fire. So is that the, I mean, the repair cost which is adjusted there? You are talking about which bridge are you talking about right now? I'm talking about the bridge where you kind of arrive at $348 million, which is there in the SEC filing. So there is $327 million, $327 million Oswego fire impact, which is added to get to 348. So just want to understand which 327 number is that. Yeah. So the 348, I hope I'm understanding your question, but the 348 basically includes $54 million of the Oswego fire impact in it, right, as we have mentioned at the bottom.
Operator: And if you look at the bridge between the reported EBITDA and the $348 million adjusted EBITDA, there is a $327 million adjustment with respect to Oswego fire. So is that the, I mean, the repair cost which is adjusted there? You are talking about which bridge are you talking about right now? I'm talking about the bridge where you kind of arrive at $348 million, which is there in the SEC filing. So there is $327 million, $327 million Oswego fire impact, which is added to get to 348. So just want to understand which 327 number is that. Yeah. So the 348, I hope I'm understanding your question, but the 348 basically includes $54 million of the Oswego fire impact in it, right, as we have mentioned at the bottom.
Speaker #6: Okay . And if , if you look at the bridge between the reported EBITDA and the $348 million adjusted EBITDA , there is a $327 million adjustment with respect to Oswego Fire .
Speaker #6: So is that the I mean , the the the repair cost , which is adjusted there .
Speaker #9: .
Speaker #5: Are talking You about which bridge are you talking about right now ?
Speaker #6: I'm talking about the bridge where you kind of arrive at $348 million, which is where in the SEC filing. So there is $327 million.
Speaker #6: Three, $27 million Oswego fire impact, which is added to get to $.348. So just want to understand which three, four, three, two, seven number is that?
Speaker #5: Yeah . So the 348 Hope I'm understanding your question , but the 348 basically includes 54 million of the Oswego fire impact in it .
Operator: So that is basically sort of depressed by the $54 million Oswego fire impact and, on the side, also, the $34 million tariff impact. So this is the as-reported number. And I quoted a number to say that if you were to add back these special impacts, I mean, the EBITDA, therefore, is much more representative of the underlying performance. That's really. I hope I'm answering your question. No. So basically, if you see the reported EBITDA, it's $60 million, adjusted EBITDA, it's $350 million, okay, the surrounding costs. In between, there is a $327 million adjustment, which is the September and October Oswego fire losses. So I just want to understand what number is this. I can take it offline if it's okay. I'm not sure of EBITDA. He's just reconciling. Everything below EBITDA. Okay. Okay. Fine. So you're talking about the number that is below EBITDA, right? Yeah.
Operator: So that is basically sort of depressed by the $54 million Oswego fire impact and, on the side, also, the $34 million tariff impact. So this is the as-reported number. And I quoted a number to say that if you were to add back these special impacts, I mean, the EBITDA, therefore, is much more representative of the underlying performance. That's really. I hope I'm answering your question. No. So basically, if you see the reported EBITDA, it's $60 million, adjusted EBITDA, it's $350 million, okay, the surrounding costs. In between, there is a $327 million adjustment, which is the September and October Oswego fire losses. So I just want to understand what number is this. I can take it offline if it's okay. I'm not sure of EBITDA. He's just reconciling. Everything below EBITDA. Okay. Okay. Fine. So you're talking about the number that is below EBITDA, right? Yeah.
Speaker #5: Right ? As we have mentioned at the bottom . So that is basically , you know , sort of depressed by the Oswego fire 54 million impact .
Speaker #5: And on the side also the 34 million tariff impact . So this is the as reported number . And I quoted a number to say that if to add you were back the special impacts , you know , I mean , the , the therefore is much more representative of the underlying performance .
Speaker #5: That’s really it. I hope I’m answering your question.
Speaker #6: No . So basically , if you see the reported $60 million adjusted EBITDA is $350 million , okay , the surrounding costs are in between .
Speaker #6: There is a $327 million adjustment, which is the September and October Oswego fire losses. So I just want to understand, what number is this?
Speaker #6: I can take it offline if.
Speaker #10: I'm not sure .
Speaker #11: He's just reconciling everything below EBITDA. Okay,
Operator: Yeah. Meaning, okay. Okay. So essentially, what I'm saying is the following. We have a $54 million EBITDA impact. And the total impact in the net income, the total impact of the net income is $381 million. So out of the $381 million, if you remove the $54 million, it is a $327 million, which are the remaining items sitting in the net income, which include the cost to serve, which include all the things that I listed earlier. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Is that clear? That's very clear. Yeah. That's absolutely clear. I just have one last question, if I may. So if to that $348 million, you add all. Yeah. Can you come back? Can you come back if you don't mind? We will need to move on. Come back in the queue if you don't mind, please. Thank you.
Operator: Yeah. Meaning, okay. Okay. So essentially, what I'm saying is the following. We have a $54 million EBITDA impact. And the total impact in the net income, the total impact of the net income is $381 million. So out of the $381 million, if you remove the $54 million, it is a $327 million, which are the remaining items sitting in the net income, which include the cost to serve, which include all the things that I listed earlier. Okay. Yeah. Okay. Is that clear? That's very clear. Yeah. That's absolutely clear. I just have one last question, if I may. So if to that $348 million, you add all. Yeah. Can you come back? Can you come back if you don't mind? We will need to move on. Come back in the queue if you don't mind, please. Thank you.
Speaker #5: Okay , fine . So so you're talking about the number that is that is below EBITDA , right ?
Speaker #6: Yeah . Yeah .
Speaker #5: okay . Meaning Okay . So so essentially what I'm saying is the following we have we have impact . impact in the net income , the total And the total 54 million EBITDA a impact of the net income is 381 .
Speaker #5: You know , so out of the 381 , if you remove the the 54 million , it is a 327 million , which are the remaining items sitting in the net income , which include the cost to serve , which include all the things that I listed that I listed earlier .
Speaker #6: Okay . Yeah . Is that clear ? That's very clear . Yeah , that's absolutely clear . I just have one last question .
Speaker #6: If I may. So, if the 348...
Speaker #10: Can you come back? Can we come back?
Speaker #5: If you don't mind, we will need to.
Speaker #10: Move on. Come back in the queue.
Operator: As a reminder, we ask you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. The next question's from the line of Satyadeep Jain with Ambit Capital. Please proceed with your questions. Hi. Thank you. Just maybe asking on this impact on this quarter. So Dave and Steve just wanted to understand when you look at fixed cost, so this is a business with high operating leverage. Fixed cost, I am assuming, would mean labor, electricity, all these fixed costs, which are recurring. So why take out the fixed cost impact from the Adjusted EBITDA? And when the banks look at your leverage covenants, do they look at Adjusted EBITDA or they look at EBITDA? Just trying to understand your definition of what is operating and non-operating. And so that's the first one. Okay. So the banks will always look at the Adjusted EBITDA.
Operator: As a reminder, we ask you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. The next question's from the line of Satyadeep Jain with Ambit Capital. Please proceed with your questions. Hi. Thank you. Just maybe asking on this impact on this quarter. So Dave and Steve just wanted to understand when you look at fixed cost, so this is a business with high operating leverage. Fixed cost, I am assuming, would mean labor, electricity, all these fixed costs, which are recurring. So why take out the fixed cost impact from the Adjusted EBITDA? And when the banks look at your leverage covenants, do they look at Adjusted EBITDA or they look at EBITDA? Just trying to understand your definition of what is operating and non-operating. And so that's the first one. Okay. So the banks will always look at the Adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker #5: If you don't mind, please.
Speaker #2: Thank you . As a reminder , we ask you to please limit yourself to one question and one follow up . The question is next from the line of Sandeep Jain with Ambit Capital .
Speaker #2: Please see if there are questions.
Speaker #12: Hi . this quarter . So Steve , just wanted to understand when you look at fixed cost . So this is a high business with operating leverage , fixed cost .
Speaker #12: Just thank you. Maybe asking on this impact on—
Speaker #12: I am assuming it would mean labor, electricity, all these fixed costs which are recurring. So, why take out the fixed cost impact from the adjusted EBITDA?
Speaker #12: And when the banks look at your leverage covenants, do they look at adjusted EBITDA or do they look at EBITDA? Just trying to understand your definition of what is operating and non-operating, and so that's the first one.
Operator: For all purposes, Adjusted EBITDA represents the underlying performance. You are saying why reclassify fixed cost? Well, if the plant is idle, we are not getting anything from the fixed cost. I mean, the fixed costs are not sort of doing any work. Therefore, to kind of absorb the fixed costs in the Adjusted EBITDA for a portion of the plant that is not producing does not really make sense. I mean, once the plant is in production, the production that is in the plant will absorb those fixed costs. Right now, the plant is down. That portion of the plant that is not going to be able to absorb the fixed costs, I mean, very, very rightly, and very logically, we should be taking those fixed costs out. That is the way it is. It's pretty much sort of all passing through. Go ahead.
Operator: For all purposes, Adjusted EBITDA represents the underlying performance. You are saying why reclassify fixed cost? Well, if the plant is idle, we are not getting anything from the fixed cost. I mean, the fixed costs are not sort of doing any work. Therefore, to kind of absorb the fixed costs in the Adjusted EBITDA for a portion of the plant that is not producing does not really make sense. I mean, once the plant is in production, the production that is in the plant will absorb those fixed costs. Right now, the plant is down. That portion of the plant that is not going to be able to absorb the fixed costs, I mean, very, very rightly, and very logically, we should be taking those fixed costs out. That is the way it is. It's pretty much sort of all passing through. Go ahead.
Speaker #5: Okay. So the banks will always look at the adjusted EBITDA for all purposes; adjusted EBITDA represents the underlying performance. Why are you saying, why reclassify fixed costs?
Speaker #5: You know ? Well if the plant is idle , we are not anything getting from the fixed costs . I mean , the fixed are costs not , you know , sort of doing any work and therefore , you know , to be to , to kind of absorb the fixed costs in the EBITDA for a portion of the plant that is not producing does not really make sense .
Speaker #5: I mean , once the plant is in production , the production that is in the plant will absorb those fixed costs . Right now , you know , the plant is down and that portion of the plant that is not going to be able to absorb the fixed cost .
Speaker #5: I mean , very , very rightly and very logically , we should be taking those fixed costs out , you know , so that is the way it is .
Operator: Because I'm looking historically, when we saw the business, when the de-stocking was there two years ago, then the company, because of lower volumes, had the impact of operating leverage on the EBITDA. So here, it seems like the impact of operating leverage is not kicking in. So maybe when the employees and all are typically operating expenses, right? But maybe can you quantify that fixed cost? How much is that fixed cost within that $300 million, which is below EBITDA, below Adjusted EBITDA? Yeah. I mean, I can yeah. You can take about $60 million. It's fixed cost. So it's not like sort of it is not the largest portion. You should not think that we are capitalizing some $200 million or anything like that. It is $60 million.
Operator: Because I'm looking historically, when we saw the business, when the de-stocking was there two years ago, then the company, because of lower volumes, had the impact of operating leverage on the EBITDA. So here, it seems like the impact of operating leverage is not kicking in. So maybe when the employees and all are typically operating expenses, right? But maybe can you quantify that fixed cost? How much is that fixed cost within that $300 million, which is below EBITDA, below Adjusted EBITDA? Yeah. I mean, I can yeah. You can take about $60 million. It's fixed cost. So it's not like sort of it is not the largest portion. You should not think that we are capitalizing some $200 million or anything like that. It is $60 million.
Speaker #5: And pretty much, you know.
Speaker #10: Sort of all passing through.
Speaker #5: ahead Go .
Speaker #12: I'm Because looking historically when we saw the business , when the these talking was there two years ago , then the company because of lower volumes had the impact of operating leverage on the beta .
Speaker #12: So here, it seems like the impact of operating leverage is not kicking in. So maybe it's when the employees and all are typically operating expenses.
Speaker #12: Right . But maybe can you quantify that fixed cost ? How much is that fixed cost within that $300 million , which is below EBITDA , adjusted EBITDA ?
Speaker #5: Yeah , I mean I can yeah , I you can take about 60 million is fixed cost . So it's not it's not like , you know , it is not the largest portion .
Operator: Basically, if in a normal business, the markets are depressed and all of that, and therefore, we produce lower, that's market. That's normal business. Right now, this is an extraordinary situation where those fixed costs are not getting absorbed because of no production, you see? So really, that is what it is. Thank you. So secondly, I want to understand the context because typically, when we look at downstream, we're not dealing with hot metals. We've had two fires in the same month in the same facility. Can you help us understand what exactly are the kind of challenges you dealt with? How did you have second fire within the same month in the same facility? And how do you de-risk the facilities from this happening again? And in the context of insurance, when you look at insurance, I understand it's a comprehensive insurance.
Operator: Basically, if in a normal business, the markets are depressed and all of that, and therefore, we produce lower, that's market. That's normal business. Right now, this is an extraordinary situation where those fixed costs are not getting absorbed because of no production, you see? So really, that is what it is. Thank you. So secondly, I want to understand the context because typically, when we look at downstream, we're not dealing with hot metals. We've had two fires in the same month in the same facility. Can you help us understand what exactly are the kind of challenges you dealt with? How did you have second fire within the same month in the same facility? And how do you de-risk the facilities from this happening again? And in the context of insurance, when you look at insurance, I understand it's a comprehensive insurance.
Speaker #5: I do not think that we are capitalizing—you should not think it's $200 million or anything like that. It is $60 million. And you know, basically, if in a normal business the markets are depressed and all of that, and therefore we produce lower, that's market.
Speaker #5: That's normal business . Right now , this is an extraordinary situation . You know , where those fixed costs not are are not getting absorbed because of no production .
Speaker #5: You see. So, so really, that is what it is.
Speaker #5: You see. So, really, that is what it is.
Speaker #12: Thank you. So secondly, I just want to understand the context—typically, when we look at downstream, we're not dealing with hot metals.
Speaker #12: We've had two fires in the same month in the same facility . Maybe . Can you help us understand what are exactly are the kind of challenges you dealt with ?
Speaker #12: How did you have a second fire within the same month and at the same facility, and how do you de-risk the facilities from this happening again?
Operator: But you're looking at $1.3 to 1.6 billion, and 70% recovery means the policy amount should be at least $6 billion. And when you have multiple fires in the same facility, are there any insurance? Is there any insurance language against multiple fires in the same facility? Just trying to understand the insurance policy. How does this comprehensive insurance policy work for the facility that you have? Thank you. So two very different fires. So obviously, analysis is ongoing on the first fire that occurred in September. I think several factors, obviously, contributed to this fire. We were operating the hot finishing mill at the time. And some of the composition and characteristics of the strip going into the finishing mill, as well as lubricants in the mill and in the surrounding area, I think, were the contributing factors to the first fire.
Operator: But you're looking at $1.3 to 1.6 billion, and 70% recovery means the policy amount should be at least $6 billion. And when you have multiple fires in the same facility, are there any insurance? Is there any insurance language against multiple fires in the same facility? Just trying to understand the insurance policy. How does this comprehensive insurance policy work for the facility that you have? Thank you. So two very different fires. So obviously, analysis is ongoing on the first fire that occurred in September. I think several factors, obviously, contributed to this fire. We were operating the hot finishing mill at the time. And some of the composition and characteristics of the strip going into the finishing mill, as well as lubricants in the mill and in the surrounding area, I think, were the contributing factors to the first fire.
Speaker #12: And in the context of insurance , when you look at insurance , it's a I understand it's a comprehensive insurance , but you're looking at 1.3 to 1.6 billion with an 70% recovery means the policy amount should be at least billion dollars .
Speaker #12: And when you have multiple fires in the same facility, are there any insurance— is there any insurance language against multiple fires in the same facility?
Speaker #12: Just trying to understand the insurance policy. How does this comprehensive policy work for the facility that you have?
Speaker #11: Thank you
Speaker #4: fires . obviously
Speaker #4: analysis So .
Speaker #4: analysis So . So Two very different is ongoing on the first fire that occurred in September think , I several factors , obviously contributed to this fire .
Speaker #4: We were operating the hot finishing mill at the time and , you know , some of the composition and characteristics of the strip going into the finishing mill , as well as , you know , lubricants in the mill and in the surrounding area , I think were the contributing factors to the the first fire , the first fire was much more a fire , structural fire of the building itself , not the equipment .
Operator: The first fire was much more a structural fire of the building itself, not the equipment, as Dev said earlier. One thing in the November fire, we were restoring that same area with hundreds of contractors in place. We're still investigating what occurred in the November fire. It was not from an operating of the mill itself. Characteristically, very different. We are immediately incorporating all of our learnings into what we're learning from this to all of our other plants worldwide to ensure that we don't see this reoccur in the future.
Operator: The first fire was much more a structural fire of the building itself, not the equipment, as Dev said earlier. One thing in the November fire, we were restoring that same area with hundreds of contractors in place. We're still investigating what occurred in the November fire. It was not from an operating of the mill itself. Characteristically, very different. We are immediately incorporating all of our learnings into what we're learning from this to all of our other plants worldwide to ensure that we don't see this reoccur in the future.
Speaker #4: As dev said earlier . One thing in the November fire , we were restoring same that area . With hundreds of contractors in place , and we're still investigating what occurred in the November fire .
Speaker #4: But it was not from an operational operating of the mill itself . So characteristically very different . But we are immediately incorporating all of our learnings into what we're learning from this to all of our other plants worldwide to ensure that we don't see this reoccur in the future .
Operator: As far as insurance, we have, with our customers, claimed force majeure and feel very comfortable with that force majeure and feel very comfortable with our insurance company and the dialogue going on with our insurance companies that we have two separate events and that we will have the ability to collect subject to deductibles, sublimits, and other items inside our insurance policies to that 70% to 80%. Exactly. We're very confident there. And we have some past experience also. I mean, we were able to sort of fall in this range from the Sierre incident. So we understand our policies. And all our assessment, it's our best assessment, but it is based upon our full understanding of the events and policies. I just wanted to understand this policy. Is it for a particular facility? I'm guessing, right?
Operator: As far as insurance, we have, with our customers, claimed force majeure and feel very comfortable with that force majeure and feel very comfortable with our insurance company and the dialogue going on with our insurance companies that we have two separate events and that we will have the ability to collect subject to deductibles, sublimits, and other items inside our insurance policies to that 70% to 80%. Exactly. We're very confident there. And we have some past experience also. I mean, we were able to sort of fall in this range from the Sierre incident. So we understand our policies. And all our assessment, it's our best assessment, but it is based upon our full understanding of the events and policies. I just wanted to understand this policy. Is it for a particular facility? I'm guessing, right?
Speaker #4: As far as insurance , we have with our customers claim force majeure and feel very comfortable with that force majeure and feel very comfortable with , you know , our insurance company and and the dialogue going on with our insurance companies that we have two separate events and that we will have the ability to collect subject to deductibles , sub limits and other inside our items insurance policies .
Speaker #4: To that 70 to 80%.
Speaker #11: Exactly .
Speaker #4: Confident there .
Speaker #5: We have some past experience also . I mean , we were able you know , to , sort of in this range from this from the sear incident .
Speaker #5: So, we understand our policies and all our assessment. It's the best assessment, but it is based upon our full understanding of events and policies.
Operator: So the policy amount for this particular facility, Oswego, would be covering at least $1 billion of business disruption and damage, right? The policies don't go by facilities. The policies basically are company policy. It's a company-wide approach. So they don't go by sort of locations. And basically, every fire incident is a separate incident. And so it is company-wide, and it is by incident. And these are two distinct ones. Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you. The next question's from the line of Pinakin Parekh with HSBC. Please proceed with your questions. Yeah. Thank you very much.
Operator: So the policy amount for this particular facility, Oswego, would be covering at least $1 billion of business disruption and damage, right? The policies don't go by facilities. The policies basically are company policy. It's a company-wide approach. So they don't go by sort of locations. And basically, every fire incident is a separate incident. And so it is company-wide, and it is by incident. And these are two distinct ones. Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Speaker #12: So just wanted to understand this policy . Is it for a particular facility I'm guessing . Right . So the policy amount for this particular facility or would be covering at least $1 billion of business disruption in damage .
Speaker #5: The policies don't go by facilities . The policy is basically are company policy . It's a company . It's a company wide . So they don't go by , you know , sort of locations and basically every fire incident is a separate incident .
Speaker #5: And so it is it is company wide and it is by incident . And these are two distinct ones .
Operator: The next question's from the line of Pinakin Parekh with HSBC. Please proceed with your questions. Yeah. Thank you very much.
Speaker #12: Okay. Thank you so much.
Speaker #13: Thank you .
Operator: So my first question is, if we look at the three numbers that the company disclosed, $54 million of adjusted EBITDA impact, a P&L impact, and a cash flow impact in Q3 versus the guidance for the entire fire impact, effectively, that implies that what we saw in the December quarter in terms of the EBITDA, net income, and cash flow impact should broadly continue at the similar levels for the March and June quarters. Would that be the correct way of looking at it? If you want to, but I would not do it exactly like that. I mean, look, this depends upon sort of how much material we import, at what time. It depends upon sort of what are the terms that we negotiate for some of the payments for the materials that we import.
Pinakin Parekh: So my first question is, if we look at the three numbers that the company disclosed, $54 million of adjusted EBITDA impact, a P&L impact, and a cash flow impact in Q3 versus the guidance for the entire fire impact, effectively, that implies that what we saw in the December quarter in terms of the EBITDA, net income, and cash flow impact should broadly continue at the similar levels for the March and June quarters. Would that be the correct way of looking at it?
Speaker #2: With that, next, Parikh of The Pinakin, HSBC. Please proceed with your questions.
Speaker #14: Yeah . Thank you very much . So my first question is if we look at the three numbers that the company disclosed , $54 million of adjusted EBITDA impact a PNL impact and a cash flow impact in Q3 versus the guidance for the entire fire impact .
Speaker #14: that Effectively , implies that what we saw in the December quarter , in the terms of EBITDA , net income and cash flow impact , should broadly continue at a similar level for the March and June quarters .
Dev Ahuja: If you want to, but I would not do it exactly like that. I mean, look, this depends upon sort of how much material we import, at what time. It depends upon sort of what are the terms that we negotiate for some of the payments for the materials that we import.
Speaker #14: Would that be the correct way of looking at it?
Speaker #5: If you want to , but I would , I would not do it exactly like that . I mean , look , this depends upon , you know , sort of how how much material material we import at what time it , it depends upon , you know , sort of what are the terms that we some of negotiate for the payments for the materials that we import , it will depend upon , you know , sort of how the payments come through with suppliers for repairs and restoration .
Operator: It will depend upon sort of how the payments come through with suppliers for repairs and restoration. I mean, broadly, if you like, you can do that. But you should not necessarily expect that every quarter will be exactly smooth, right? There could be some variations between quarter to quarter depending upon some of the factors that I just mentioned. Got it. So just to carry forward, will it worsen from here in the next two quarters? Will it what? Worsen. No, it will not worsen. Because the one thing you have to remember is that after the September fire, we had already set up a number of supply chains. So those supply chains were well set up. So we're going to be able to cover the majority of the output shortfall from Oswego's Hot Mill to our customer base.
Dev Ahuja: It will depend upon sort of how the payments come through with suppliers for repairs and restoration. I mean, broadly, if you like, you can do that. But you should not necessarily expect that every quarter will be exactly smooth, right? There could be some variations between quarter to quarter depending upon some of the factors that I just mentioned.
Speaker #5: I mean , broadly , if you like , you can do that , but you should not you should not necessarily expect that every quarter will be exactly smooth .
Speaker #5: Right ? There could be there could be some variations between quarter to quarter depending upon some of the factors that I just mentioned .
Pinakin Parekh: Got it. So just to carry forward, will it worsen from here in the next two quarters?
Dev Ahuja: Will it what?
Speaker #14: Got it. So, just to carry forward, will it worsen from here in the next two quarters?
Steve Fisher: Worsen. No, it will not worsen. Because the one thing you have to remember is that after the September fire, we had already set up a number of supply chains. So those supply chains were well set up. So we're going to be able to cover the majority of the output shortfall from Oswego's Hot Mill to our customer base.
Speaker #5: Will it what .
Speaker #4: No , it will not work . Because the one thing .
Speaker #15: That .
Speaker #4: No , no one thing you have to remember is that after the September fire , we had already set those chains . So well set up up a were supply supply chains we're going .
Speaker #4: So number of able to cover majority of the output shortfall from Oswego's Hotmail to our customer base . That does come at a cost , but we have a pretty good handle on that .
Operator: That does come at a cost, but we have a pretty good handle on that. And I think the estimates that we've seen, $1.3 to 1.6 billion, account for all that. So I think that's a very good range for you to follow towards. Got it. My second question is, if you look at the cash flow impact, $1.3 to 1.6 billion, and you have given a range of 70% to 80%. So on the lower end, a $900 million insurance payout to the higher end of $1.3 billion. So my question is, over the next few quarters, once you get the insurance payout, how will that cash inflow show up? Would that go to fund the overall CapEx, or would that go in reduction of whatever net debt number is, or would that go in terms of paying back the parents' equity infusion? Yeah.
Steve Fisher: That does come at a cost, but we have a pretty good handle on that. And I think the estimates that we've seen, $1.3 to 1.6 billion, account for all that. So I think that's a very good range for you to follow towards.
Speaker #4: And I think the estimates that we've seen 1.3 to 1.6 account for all that . So I think that's a very good range for you to to , towards .
Pinakin Parekh: Got it. My second question is, if you look at the cash flow impact, $1.3 to 1.6 billion, and you have given a range of 70% to 80%. So on the lower end, a $900 million insurance payout to the higher end of $1.3 billion. So my question is, over the next few quarters, once you get the insurance payout, how will that cash inflow show up? Would that go to fund the overall CapEx, or would that go in reduction of whatever net debt number is, or would that go in terms of paying back the parents' equity infusion?
Speaker #14: it . My second question is if you Got look at the cash flow impact , 1.3 to 1.6 billion and you have range given a of 70 to 80% , so on the lower end , $900 million insurance payout to the higher end of 1.3 billion .
Speaker #14: So my question is, over the next quarters, once you get the insurance payout, how will that cash inflow show up?
Speaker #14: Would that go to fund the CapEx, or would that go to an overall reduction of whatever the net debt number is, or would that go in terms of paying back the parent's equity infusion?
Dev Ahuja: Yeah. It depends upon the timing when it comes. Any payment that comes during the time when we are doing the repairs and restoration basically goes towards reducing the cash flow impact, as you can understand. I mean, the gross impact is $1.3 to 1.6. So as we keep getting money during this time, that will go towards setting off some of this. The payments that come after we have repaired and restored, all the payments that come after that will definitely go towards reducing the leverage because we would be paying off some of the short-term money that we would be taking. So that would go towards reducing leverage. And then it would get repurposed into continuing to spend on payment. So it all depends upon how much and at what stage the money flows.
Operator: It depends upon the timing when it comes. Any payment that comes during the time when we are doing the repairs and restoration basically goes towards reducing the cash flow impact, as you can understand. I mean, the gross impact is $1.3 to 1.6. So as we keep getting money during this time, that will go towards setting off some of this. The payments that come after we have repaired and restored, all the payments that come after that will definitely go towards reducing the leverage because we would be paying off some of the short-term money that we would be taking. So that would go towards reducing leverage. And then it would get repurposed into continuing to spend on payment. So it all depends upon how much and at what stage the money flows.
Speaker #5: Yeah , it depends upon the timing . When it comes , any payment comes that during the time when we are doing the repairs and restoration basically goes towards reducing the cash flow impact .
Speaker #5: As you can understand . I mean , you know , the gross , the gross impact is 1.3 to 1.6 . So as we keep getting money during this time , that will go towards setting off some of this , the payments that come after we have repaired and restored all the payments that come after that will definitely go towards reducing , towards reducing the leverage because we would be paying off some of the short term , some of the short term money that we would be taking .
Speaker #5: that would go So towards reducing leverage and then , you know , it would get repurposed into into continuing to spend on , on , on , on Bay Minette .
Operator: Any money that flows post the repairs and restoration and the plant is up will go towards reducing leverage because that's what I said. The leverage will be temporarily elevated. As the money comes, it will go directly towards sort of improving the leverage. Just to clarify, what's the repairs and restoration number of that 1.3 to 1.6? Look, Pinakin, we have given you the total number. I mean, these are all numbers that are being worked upon. I don't know if it will add any value by picking every line. I mean, there is CapEx. There is repairs. And as I said, between CapEx and repairs, there could be some switches. That is what it is. Okay. Because there's a $255 million number that Wall Street Journal has reported. So we should not take that into account, right? I would not take any numbers.
Dev Ahuja: Any money that flows post the repairs and restoration and the plant is up will go towards reducing leverage because that's what I said. The leverage will be temporarily elevated. As the money comes, it will go directly towards sort of improving the leverage.
Speaker #5: So it all depends upon how much and at what stage the money flows . Any money that flows post the repairs and restoration and the plant is up will go towards reducing leverage because .
Speaker #5: Because that's what I said . The leverage will be considerably elevated . And as the money comes , it will go directly towards , towards , you know , sort of improving the leverage .
Pinakin Parekh: Just to clarify, what's the repairs and restoration number of that 1.3 to 1.6?
Dev Ahuja: Look, Pinakin, we have given you the total number. I mean, these are all numbers that are being worked upon. I don't know if it will add any value by picking every line. I mean, there is CapEx. There is repairs. And as I said, between CapEx and repairs, there could be some switches. That is what it is.
Speaker #14: Just to clarify, what's the repairs and restoration number of that 1.3 to 1.6?
Speaker #5: Look , we have given you the total number . I mean , these are all numbers that are being worked upon . I don't know if it will add any value by , you know , every picking line .
Speaker #5: I mean , there is CapEx . There is repairs . And as I said , between CapEx repairs , you know , there could be some switches , but that is what it is .
Pinakin Parekh: Okay. Because there's a $255 million number that Wall Street Journal has reported. So we should not take that into account, right?
Speaker #5: You know .
Dev Ahuja: I would not take any numbers. I would not take any such numbers. I mean, basically, you should just rely on what we are saying based on our best judgment. So that was an out-of-context number, I can tell you.
Speaker #14: Okay , because there's a $255 million number that Wall Street reported . Journal has So we should not into account . take that Right ?
Operator: I would not take any such numbers. I mean, basically, you should just rely on what we are saying based on our best judgment. So that was an out-of-context number, I can tell you. Sure. Got it. Thank you. It was not coming from us. Yeah. Got it. Got it. Our final question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal with CLSA. Please proceed with your questions. Hi. Most of my questions are answered. One last question. The reduction in impact of tariff, how much is that due to mitigation measures, and how much due to lower volumes because of the fire? And do we see complete mitigation now only past 22 CY26? Yeah. So let me say this, that the longer-term mitigation action that we were indicating to you has happened at the late end of the December quarter. So the benefit of that will come in time.
Speaker #5: I would not take any numbers . I would not take any such numbers . I mean , you know , basically you should just rely on what we are saying based on our best judgment .
Pinakin Parekh: Sure. Got it. Thank you.
Dev Ahuja: It was not coming from us.
Speaker #5: So that was an out of context number . I can tell you .
Pinakin Parekh: Yeah. Got it. Got it.
Operator: Our final question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal with CLSA. Please proceed with your questions.
Speaker #14: Sure .
Speaker #5: was not It coming .
Speaker #14: From us .
Speaker #14: Got it. Yeah.
Indrajit Agarwal: Hi. Most of my questions are answered. One last question. The reduction in impact of tariff, how much is that due to mitigation measures, and how much due to lower volumes because of the fire? And do we see complete mitigation now only past 22 CY26?
Speaker #2: A final question is from the line of Inderjit Agarwal with Kelsa . Please proceed with your questions .
Speaker #16: Most of my Hi . questions are answered . One last question . The reduction in impact of tariff . How much is that due to mitigation measures and how much due to lower volumes ?
Dev Ahuja: Yeah. So let me say this, that the longer-term mitigation action that we were indicating to you has happened at the late end of the December quarter. So the benefit of that will come in time. In the short term, we did not produce as much in the plant because we were not able to feed our Kingston plant in Canada. As a result of that, we got a short-term mitigation. Now, there's an important fact that I want you to bear in mind, that in the $34 million impact that we are talking about in this quarter, the actual tariff was very low. It was just about $7 to 8 million. The rest of it was all tariff-paid material that hit the P&L in this quarter. And therefore, the impact is reflected during the quarter. So that tells you that the actual cash tariff impact in the quarter was very little. It was just bleeding of inventories that were coming from earlier. In other words, you can even call it that this quarter, actually, on an underlying basis, reflects mitigation.
Speaker #16: Because of the fire ? And do we see complete mitigation only part 26 .
Speaker #13: Yeah .
Speaker #5: So so let me say this , that . The longer term mitigation action that we were indicating to you has happened at the late end of the December quarter .
Operator: In the short term, we did not produce as much in the plant because we were not able to feed our Kingston plant in Canada. As a result of that, we got a short-term mitigation. Now, there's an important fact that I want you to bear in mind, that in the $34 million impact that we are talking about in this quarter, the actual tariff was very low. It was just about $7 to 8 million. The rest of it was all tariff-paid material that hit the P&L in this quarter. And therefore, the impact is reflected during the quarter. So that tells you that the actual cash tariff impact in the quarter was very little. It was just bleeding of inventories that were coming from earlier. In other words, you can even call it that this quarter, actually, on an underlying basis, reflects mitigation.
Speaker #5: the So benefit of that will come in time in short term , the we did not produce as much in the plant because we were not able to feed our Kingston plant in Canada as a result of that .
Speaker #5: You know , we got a short term mitigation . Now , there's an important fact that I want you to bear in mind that in the 34 million impact that we are talking about in this quarter , the actual actual tariff the was very low .
Speaker #5: It was just about $7 to $8 million. The rest of it was all tariff-paid material that hit the P&L in this quarter.
Speaker #5: And therefore the impact is reflected during the quarter , so that tells you that the actual cash tariff impact in the quarter was very little .
Speaker #5: It was just bleeding of inventories that were coming from earlier . In other words , you can even call it that . This quarter , actually , on an underlying basis reflects mitigation .
Operator: So as the impact of lower volumes continue for the next 2 quarters at least, then would you see a $7 to $8 million run rate in terms of tariff impact for, let's say, Q4 and Q5? No. No. I mean, I expect minimal tariff impact in the fourth quarter. The fact that we are not particularly producing helps. But then even if we were to produce, we would do through a different supply chain. We have access to more capacity on the shore. And even if we were to produce, we would be able to do it without much of the tariff impact. So when we say the tariff impact is largely mitigated, that's based upon a longer-term solution that we have on available capacity. That's the point. That's very clear. Thank you so much. Good. Thank you.
Indrajit Agarwal: So as the impact of lower volumes continue for the next 2 quarters at least, then would you see a $7 to $8 million run rate in terms of tariff impact for, let's say, Q4 and Q5?
Speaker #16: So as the impact of lower continue volumes for the next two quarters , at least , then would we see a 7 to $8 million run rate in terms of tariff impact for , let's say , for .
Dev Ahuja: No. No. I mean, I expect minimal tariff impact in the fourth quarter. The fact that we are not particularly producing helps. But then even if we were to produce, we would do through a different supply chain. We have access to more capacity on the shore. And even if we were to produce, we would be able to do it without much of the tariff impact. So when we say the tariff impact is largely mitigated, that's based upon a longer-term solution that we have on available capacity. That's the point.
Speaker #13: You ? No , I mean , I expect , I .
Speaker #5: Expect minimal , minimal tariff impact in the in the fourth quarter , you know , the fact that we're that we are not not particularly producing helps .
Speaker #5: But then even if it even if we were to produce , we would we would do through a different supply chain . We have access to more capacity on the shore .
Speaker #5: And even if we were to produce , we would be able to do it without without , without much tariff of the impact .
Speaker #5: when we So say the tariff impact is , is largely mitigated , that's based upon a longer term solution that we have on available capacity .
Indrajit Agarwal: That's very clear. Thank you so much.
Dev Ahuja: Good.
Operator: Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Fisher for closing comments.
Speaker #5: That's the point .
Operator: At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Fisher for closing comments. Thanks, Rob. Thanks, everyone, for attending our call today. While we are facing short-term capacity constraints due to the production disruption at Oswego, our underlying performance does remain strong, supported by our resilient business model, investment in new capacity, effective cost control initiatives, and favorable market conditions. Thank you for your support. We look forward to providing another business and financial update on our fiscal year-end earnings call in May. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Speaker #16: That's very clear. Thank you so much.
Steve Fisher: Thanks, Rob. Thanks, everyone, for attending our call today. While we are facing short-term capacity constraints due to the production disruption at Oswego, our underlying performance does remain strong, supported by our resilient business model, investment in new capacity, effective cost control initiatives, and favorable market conditions. Thank you for your support. We look forward to providing another business and financial update on our fiscal year-end earnings call in May. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.
Speaker #13: Good .
Speaker #2: Thank you . At this time , we've reached the end of our question and answer session . I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Fisher for closing comments .
Speaker #4: Thanks , Rob , and thanks to everyone for attending our call today . While we are facing short term capacity constraints due to the production disruption at Oswego , our underlying performance does remain strong , supported by our resilient business model investment .
Speaker #4: New capacity , effective cost control initiatives and favorable market conditions . So thank you for your support . And we look forward providing to other business and financial update on our fiscal year end earnings call in Thank you May .
Speaker #4: .
Speaker #2: Ladies and gentlemen , thank you for your participation . This does conclude today's teleconference . You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day .