Q4 2025 Polaris Renewable Energy Inc Earnings Call

February 19, 2026

Speaker #2: If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press *0 on your telephone keypad. And please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Alba Cestedos, Chief Financial Officer with Polaris Renewable Energy.

Speaker #2: Mom, the floor is yours. Thank you, Ali. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our 2025 fourth quarter earnings call for Polaris Renewable Energy, Inc. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that in addition to our press release issued earlier today, you can find our financial statements and MD&A on both Cedar Plus and our corporate website at polarisrei.com.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: Thank you, Ali. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our 2025 Q4 earnings call for Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that in addition to our press release issued earlier today, you can find our financial statements and MD&A on both SEDAR+ and our corporate website at polarisrei.com. Unless noted otherwise, all amounts referred to are denominated in US dollars. We would also like to remind you that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation regarding the future performance of Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. and its subsidiaries. These statements are current expectations and as such, are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.

Speaker #2: And as noted otherwise, all amounts referred to are denominated in US dollars. We will also like to remind you that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation, regarding the future performance of Polaris Renewable Energy, Inc., and its subsidiaries.

Speaker #2: These statements are a current expectation and, as such, are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.

Speaker #2: These risks and uncertainties include the factors discussed in the company's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025. On today's call, I will walk through our operating and financial results for the fourth quarter 2025 and full year 2025. We will then turn the call over to Mark, who will provide a review of our 2025 performance and discuss the outlook for our business and growth prospects.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: These risks and uncertainties include the factors discussed in the company's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025. On today's call, I will walk through our operating and financial results for the fourth quarter, 2025 and full 2025 year. We will then turn the call over to Marc, who will provide a review of our 2025 performance and discuss the outlook of... for our business and growth prospects. Following our comments, we look forward to taking your questions. Overall, 2025 was a year of measurable progress for Polaris. We deliver year-over-year growth in energy production, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA, solid operational execution and disciplined cost management, a strong operating cash flow generation, materially simplify and optimize capital structure, and continue capital returns to shareholders.

Speaker #2: Following our comments, we look forward to taking your questions. Overall, 2025 was a year of measurable progress for Polaris. We deliver year-over-year growth in energy production, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker #2: Solid operational execution and disciplined cost management, a strong operating cash flow generation, materially simplified and optimized capital structure, and continued capital returns to shareholders.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: Importantly, we achieved this while maintaining balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, which remains central to our long-term strategy. Starting with operations, for the full year 2025, consolidated energy production totaled 807,731MWh, compared to 764,756MWh in 2024, representing a 6% year-over-year increase. This increase reflects the addition of the 26MW Punta Lima Wind Farm in Puerto Rico, the strong hydrology in Peru and Ecuador, and solid plant availability across our portfolio. The strongest performance over the year was achieved by our hydroelectric projects in Peru and Ecuador. In Peru, favorable hydrology and excellent plant availability led to a 12% increase year to date in hydro output for the Peruvian projects, following what had been a historically dry year in 2024.

Speaker #2: Importantly, we achieved this while maintaining balanced strength and financial flexibility, which remains central to our long-term strategy. Starting with operations for the full year 2025, consolidated energy production totaled 8,110,731 megawatt-hours, compared to 764,756 megawatt-hours in 2024, representing a 6% year-over-year increase.

Speaker #2: This increase reflects the addition of the 26-megawatt Punta Lima wind farm in Puerto Rico, a strong hydrology in Peru and Ecuador, and solid plant availability across our portfolio.

Speaker #2: The strongest performance over the year was achieved by our hydroelectric projects in Peru and Ecuador. In Peru, favorable hydrology and excellent plant availability led to a 12% increase year-to-date in hydro output for the Peruvian projects, following what had been a historically dry year in 2024.

Speaker #2: Our hydroelectric facility in Ecuador also had an exceptional year, producing 19% more energy year-to-date versus 2024, and 26% more energy in the fourth quarter of 2025 versus the comparative period in 2024, thanks to strong rainfall and excellent technical performance.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: Our hydroelectric facility in Ecuador also had an exceptional year, producing 19% more energy year to date versus 2024, and 26% more energy in Q4 2025 versus the comparative period in 2024, thanks to a strong rainfall and an excellent technical performance, resulting in the highest resource availability since operations began. In Puerto Rico, 2025 marked the first year of contribution from Punta Lima, adding 42,066 MWh of acquisition and strengthening our technology diversification. In Panama, solar generation in the quarter was 5% higher than in the 2024 comparative period. These increases offset lower output from Nicaragua, where expected geothermal normalization and natural steam field decline reduced generation by about 5% in 2025 versus 2024....

Speaker #2: Resulting in the highest resource availability since operations begun. In Puerto Rico, 2025 marked the first year of contribution from Punta Lima, adding 42,056 megawatts-hour post-adquisition and strengthening our technology diversification.

Speaker #2: In Panama, solar generation in the quarter was 5% higher than in the 2024 comparative period. This increases offset lower output from Nicaragua, where expected geothermal normalization and natural steam field decline produced generation by about 5% in 2025 versus 2024.

Speaker #2: Production at our Dominican Republic canal one solar facility decreased slightly 2% year-to-date, reflecting efficiency gain from the new panels installed in 2024, which allowed setting grid-wide curtailments, which were 3,500 megawatts-hour in the quarter and 5,000,900 megawatts-hour for the year.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: Production at our Dominican Republic Canoa I solar facility decreased slightly 2% year to date, reflecting efficiency gains from the new panel, panels installed in 2024, which allowed setting grid-wide curtailments, which were 3,500 megawatt-hours in the quarter and 5,900 megawatt-hours for the year. Overall, our diversified portfolio, spanning geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind across six jurisdictions, continues to demonstrate resilience and stability and remains one of Polaris' structural strengths. From a financial perspective, adjusted EBITDA increased up to $56.5 million, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year. Despite inflationary pressures on the onboarding of new assets, operating margins continued to perform strongly, benefiting from disciplined cost management.

Speaker #2: Overall, our diversified portfolio spanning geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind across six jurisdictions continues to demonstrate resilience and stability, and remains one of Polaris's structural strengths.

Speaker #2: From a financial perspective, adjusted EBITDA increased to $56.5 million, reflecting a 3% increase year-over-year. Despite inflationary pressures and the onboarding of new assets, operating margins continue to perform strongly, benefiting from disciplined cost management.

Speaker #2: I would like to highlight that we have already announced that we will be paying a quarterly dividend on February 27 of 15 cents per share to shareholders of record on February 17.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: I would like to highlight that we have already announced that we will be paying a quarterly dividend on 27 February of $0.15 per share to shareholders of record on 17 February. Polaris now has a 10-year track record of consistent dividends, having returned approximately $105 million to shareholders in that period. Also, during 2025, our NCIB program, we repurchased and canceled 169,800 common shares for approximately $1.5 million during the year, of which 80,000 were purchased in Q4 for approximately $0.8 million.

Speaker #2: Polaris now has a 10-year track record of consistent dividends, having returned approximately 105 million to shareholders in that period. Also, during 2025, our renew NCIB program, we repurchased and canceled 169,800 common shares, for approximately 1.5 million during the year, of which 80,000 were purchased in Q4 for approximately 0.8 million.

Speaker #2: Today, following debt repayments in Q1 2025 and Punta Lima wind farm integration, Polaris has a simplified debt structure, ample liquidity, and enters the year 2025 with a consolidated cash position of $93.2 million, including restricted cash, and an optimized and energy-diversified platform for further growth.

Alba Seisdedos Ballesteros: Today, following debt repayments in Q1 2025 and Punta Lima Wind Farm integration, Polaris has a simplified debt structure, ample liquidity, and the year 2025 with a consolidated cash position of $93.2 million, including restricted cash, and an optimized and energy diversified platform for further growth. This positions the company well to deploy capital into expansion opportunities. With that, I will turn the call over to Marc. Thank you.

Speaker #2: This positions the company well to deploy capital into expansion opportunities. With that, I will turn the call over to Mark. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Thanks, Alba. So just a few comments about sort of production and guidance on that front. For this year, so we did, as we messaged, we moved the major maintenance at San Jacinto from the end of last year to this year.

Marc Murnaghan: Thanks, Alba. So just a few comments about sort of production and guidance on that front for this year. So we, as we messaged, we moved the major maintenance at San Jacinto from the end of last year to this year. It has been completed and executed as expected. No issues with the turbines, which is great. What that means in terms of, call it, total production on a consolidated basis would, for our budget for this year, without any new plants, without any acquisitions, so we just take the existing plants in operation, with that, with the major maintenance there and some curtailment in the Dominican, our consolidated range for the year would be around 775 to 790 GWh for the year.

Speaker #1: It has been completed and executed. As expected, no issues with the turbines, which is great. With that means, so in terms of, call it, total production, on a consolidated basis, for our budget, for this year, without any new plans, without any acquisitions.

Speaker #1: So, we just take the existing plants in operation—with that, with the major maintenance there, and some curtailment in the Dominican—our consolidated range for the year would be around 775 to 790 gigawatt-hours for the year.

Marc Murnaghan: In terms of what we are working on, on the growth side, as people know, we really focused on the ASAP project last year because of the size of it, which is very well matched with the excess cash we have on the balance sheet and the profitability of that project. And so we were very focused on that. And what I would say that given the delays in the approval, which I'll get to in a second, we 3 to 6 months ago really started to call it diversify our development opportunities in some existing jurisdictions as well as some new ones. So, and I think we're going to start to see the fruits of that very shortly. In terms of the actual ASAP program, the...

Speaker #1: In terms of what we are working on, on the growth side, as people know, we really focused on the ASAP project. Last year, because of the size of it, which was very well matched with the excess cash we have on the balance sheet, and the profitability of that project, and so we were very focused on that.

Speaker #1: And what I would say that, given the delays in the approval, which I'll get to in a second, we three, six months ago, really started to call it diversify our development opportunities in some existing jurisdictions, as well as some new ones.

Speaker #1: So, and I think we're going to start to see the fruits of that very shortly. In terms of the actual ASAP program, the we received approval back in August for from the energy bureau and that moved to PREPA, which is the actual contracting agent.

Marc Murnaghan: We received approval back in August for from the Energy Bureau, and it moved to PREPA, which is the actual contracting agent. It turns out that in Q4, the board was basically not properly constituted to approve it. It is now properly constituted. They do now have a quorum, and our understanding is that the meeting or basically the first board meeting of PREPA with properly constituted, call it quorum, will be taking place within the week. And we do know that our ASAP project is on the docket for such board meeting, amongst other projects. So we're not the only one. There's numerous projects that they need to get to, given that there's, I would say, been a pause in terms of their approval of projects.

Speaker #1: It turns out that in Q4, they did the board was basically not properly constituted to approve it. It is now properly constituted. They do now have quorum and our understanding is that the meeting or the basically the first board meeting of PREPA with properly constituted call it quorum will be taking place within the week.

Speaker #1: And we do know that our ASAP project is on the docket. For such board meeting, amongst other projects, so we're not the only one.

Speaker #1: There's numerous projects that they need to get to, given that there's, I would say, been a pause in terms of their approval of projects.

Speaker #1: So, we are expecting that board meeting to happen in the short term, now that they have the quorum. And then, in addition to that, we do have a non-binding LOI that we signed regarding the acquisition of a small solar project in one of our current jurisdictions.

Marc Murnaghan: We are expecting that board meeting to happen in the short term, now that they have the quorum. In addition to that, we do have a non-binding LOI that we signed regarding the acquisition of a small solar project in one of our current jurisdictions. It's not big, but it's strategic. We would look to be going binding on that by the end of March. That's on the acquisition front. In terms of other development activities, we are participating in a RFP process in Puerto Rico as well, that came out at the end in Q4, where there was a request for qualifications in December, which we successfully passed, and we're now in the RFP process.

Speaker #1: It's not big, but it's strategic and we would look to be going binding on that by the end of March. So that's on the acquisition front.

Speaker #1: In terms of other development activities, we are participating in an RFP process in Puerto Rico as well. That came out at the end Q4.

Speaker #1: There was a request for qualifications in December, which we successfully passed, and we're now in the RFP process. We're going to be submitting a solar plus BESS, with a heavy BESS weighting to it.

Marc Murnaghan: We're going to be submitting a solar plus BESS, with a heavy BESS weighting to it, so it's more dispatchable. And interestingly, despite the PREPA, which has been delayed, I would say that the process in this RFP is moving very quickly. The timeline is very aggressive, and any sort of correspondences, you know, I would say, responded to very quickly. So, and the actual formal timeline that they have published is that they're looking to have contracts signed by June. We actually had to submit the comments on contracts yesterday. So that is actually moving. So we're very interested in that, in Puerto Rico.

Speaker #1: So it's more dispatchable. And interestingly, despite the PREPA, which has been delayed, I would say that the process on in this RFP is moving very quickly.

Speaker #1: The timeline is very aggressive and any sort of correspondence is, I would say, responded to very quickly. So and the actual formal timeline that they have published is that they're looking to have contracts signed by June.

Speaker #1: We actually had to submit comments on contracts yesterday, so that is actually moving. So we're very interested in that in Puerto Rico. Also, in the same area, I would say that while the Dominican is having issues with curtailment, we do think that opportunities centered around storage will emerge from it, and we will be looking at being, call it, ready for that.

Marc Murnaghan: Also in the same area, I would say that while the Dominican is having issues with curtailment, we do think that opportunities centered around storage will emerge from it, and we will be looking at being, call it, ready for that, and there are things that we're working on there. And then in terms of importantly, in other markets, big focus going forward now is Mexico for us. We yesterday signed an exclusivity agreement with a local developer there for which gives us access to approximately 1,000 MW of projects. The way that... So we're very happy about that. The way that things are working in Mexico is there's different processes that are gonna be happening throughout the year.

Speaker #1: And there are things that we're working on there. And then in terms of importantly, in other markets, big focus going forward now is Mexico for us.

Speaker #1: We yesterday signed an exclusivity agreement with a local developer there for which gives us access to approximately 1,000 megawatts of projects. The way that so we're very happy about that.

Speaker #1: The way that things are working in Mexico is there's different processes that are going to be happening throughout the year. The first one is something called mixed projects, which is we were actually invited, given the work that we've done last year, so Polaris was invited to participate in it's called a convocatoria.

Marc Murnaghan: The first one is something called Mixed Projects, which is, we were actually invited, given the work that we've done last year. So Polaris was invited to participate in; it's called a Convocatory. It's basically a process for them to sort of fast track projects, signing of contracts. But the short term one, which is we actually have to submit by next Friday. It's for what they call Mixed Projects, which is where your... I would call it basically their build, own, operate, transfer, 25-year build, own, operate, transfer projects with CFE, which is, and they're gonna be your contracting entity.

Speaker #1: It's basically a process to for them to sort of fast track projects/ signing of contracts. But the short-term one, which is we actually have to submit by next Friday, it's for what they call mixed projects, which is where you're I would call it basically they're build-own, operate-transfer, 25-year build-own, operate-transfer projects with CFE.

Speaker #1: Which is, and they're going to be your contracting entity. So we will, with this portfolio that we've called it, have exclusive rights to— we will definitely be submitting some of those projects in that portfolio for this short-term mixed projects.

Marc Murnaghan: We will, with this portfolio that we've, call it, have exclusive, exclusive rights to, definitely be submitting some of those projects in that portfolio for this short-term mixed projects convocatory by next Friday. Still short term, but a little bit later, call it Q2 this year, there's gonna be a second process, which will be for more traditional private company, long-term PPAs, but where they're not boots. That's expected to be happening in April, May of this year. The plan would be to submit more projects from this portfolio into that, as well as likely some other ones that, based on conversations with other local developers, are quite interested in partnering with us for that.

Speaker #1: Convocatoria next by next Friday. And then still short-term, but a little bit later, call it Q2 this year, there's going to be a second process, which will be for more traditional private company long-term PPAs, where they're not boots.

Speaker #1: So that's expected to be happening in April, May of this year. And so the plan would be to submit more projects from this portfolio into that, as well as likely some other ones that based on conversations with other local developers, that are quite interested in partnering with us for that.

Speaker #1: So and then beyond that, which I would say is more call it a medium term, is that those are the two most short-term processes, but that doesn't that's not going to be the end of it.

Marc Murnaghan: So, and then beyond that, which I would say is more, call it a medium term, is that, there's those are the two most short-term processes, but that doesn't that's not gonna be the end of it. There, there's gonna be more abilities to contract, either directly with CFE or with other. There's numerous sort of approved purchasers of power there, on a wholesale basis. And so, so there's gonna be a lot happening on the development side this year in Mexico. In addition, another opportunity that is there that we're looking at is behind the meter, given the, the regulation changes, as well as the pent-up demand from industrial consumers there.

Speaker #1: We don't there's going to be more abilities to contract either directly with CFE or with other there's numerous sort of approved purchasers of power there on a wholesale basis.

Speaker #1: And so that's we think that that can be back half of the year or sort of early next year in terms of actual contracting.

Speaker #1: So there's going to be a lot happening on the development side this year in Mexico. In addition, another opportunity that is there that we're looking at is behind the meter.

Speaker #1: Given the regulation changes as well as the pent-up demand from industrial consumers there. So we do have several acquisitions we're looking at and projects we're looking at that are behind the meter.

Marc Murnaghan: So, we do have several acquisitions we're looking at and projects we're looking at that are behind the meter. And there, the behind the meter can be up to 20MW. So you can get some scale in behind the meter projects now in Mexico. So I would say with Mexico, with the call it RFP in Puerto Rico, and with ASAP, I would say we are now sitting here with a lot more call it development shots on the net than we had three months ago, and I would anticipate being able to taking a reasonable success rate.

Speaker #1: And there, the behind-the-meter can be up to 20 megawatts. So you can get some scale in behind-the-meter projects now in Mexico.

Speaker #1: So I would say with Mexico, with the call it RFP in Puerto Rico, and with ASAP, I would say we are now sitting here with a lot more call it development shots on the net than we had three months ago.

Speaker #1: And I would anticipate being able to have a reasonable success rate. Obviously, we're not going to advance all of those, but we should be having news in the next three to six months about defining actual projects that we're going to be, call it, starting to build both this year, next year, and the following year.

Marc Murnaghan: Obviously, we're not gonna advance all of those, but that we should be, you know, having news in the next three to six months with about defining actual projects that we're going to be calling, you know, starting to build both this year, next year, and the following year. So that the connecting the dots on the five-year plan will be much clearer in the next three to six months. So that's it for the forward remarks. We can open up for questions.

Speaker #1: So that they connecting the dots on the five-year plan will be much clearer next three to six months. So that's it for the formal remarks.

Speaker #1: We can open up for questions.

Speaker #2: Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.

Operator: Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting our question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Melissa Dean with National Bank Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker #2: A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue.

Speaker #2: And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions.

Speaker #2: Thank you. Our first question is coming from Melissa Dean with National Bank Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Speaker #3: Hey, team. Thanks for taking my question. Just firstly, I wanted to ask you guys about your M&A pipeline. You mentioned a couple opportunities in your prepared remarks.

Marc Murnaghan: Hey, team. Thanks for taking my question. Just firstly, I wanted to ask you guys about your M&A pipeline. You mentioned a couple opportunities in your prepared remarks. But, yeah, could you just walk us through the pipeline you're seeing in Latin America, and what kind of valuation multiples and IRR you're seeing, if anything's changed since the last time we spoke? And then you also mentioned in your prepared remarks a non-binding LOI that you signed. If you could provide more detail there as well, that would be great. Yeah, just on that one, given that it's non-binding, we have a press release, but it's... It's not a large project, but it's reasonably strategic in terms of it's essentially co-located with one of our other solar projects.

Melissa Dunn: Hey, team. Thanks for taking my question. Just firstly, I wanted to ask you guys about your M&A pipeline. You mentioned a couple opportunities in your prepared remarks. But, yeah, could you just walk us through the pipeline you're seeing in Latin America, and what kind of valuation multiples and IRR you're seeing, if anything's changed since the last time we spoke? And then you also mentioned in your prepared remarks a non-binding LOI that you signed. If you could provide more detail there as well, that would be great.

Speaker #3: But yeah, could you just walk us through the pipeline you're seeing in Latin America and what kind of valuation multiples and IRRs you're seeing, if anything's changed since the last time we spoke?

Speaker #3: And then, you also mentioned in your prepared remarks a non-binding LOI that you signed. If you could provide more detail there as well, that would be great.

Speaker #4: Yeah. Just on that one, given that it's non-binding, we have a press release, but it's not a large project. But it's reasonably strategic in terms of its essentially co-located with one of our other solar projects.

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah, just on that one, given that it's non-binding, we have a press release, but it's... It's not a large project, but it's reasonably strategic in terms of it's essentially co-located with one of our other solar projects. So, I think there's a high degree of likelihood. We convert that to a binding deal, but it's just think of it as about 10MW, so it's not huge. But we quite like the economics, and it's, there's just synergies there, so it's we think it's a good transaction. In terms of the overall pipeline, I would say, in terms of multiples for the things we're generally looking at, it is a range. I would say it's maybe 6.5 to 7 on the low end, 8.5 to 9 on the high end. But it's, I wouldn't say that it's really increased in terms of our pipeline.

Speaker #4: So I think there's a high degree of likelihood. We convert that to a binding deal, but it's just think of it as about 10 megawatts.

Marc Murnaghan: So, I think there's a high degree of likelihood. We convert that to a binding deal, but it's just think of it as about 10MW, so it's not huge. But we quite like the economics, and it's, there's just synergies there, so it's we think it's a good transaction. In terms of the overall pipeline, I would say, in terms of multiples for the things we're generally looking at, it is a range. I would say it's maybe 6.5 to 7 on the low end, 8.5 to 9 on the high end. But it's, I wouldn't say that it's really increased in terms of our pipeline.

Speaker #4: So, it's not huge, but we quite like the economics, and there's just synergies there. So, we think it's a good transaction.

Speaker #4: In terms of the overall pipeline, I would say, in terms of multiples, the things we're generally looking at—it's a range. I would say maybe it's six and a half to seven on the low end, eight and a half to nine on the high end.

Speaker #4: But I wouldn't say that it's really increased in terms of our pipeline. And partly that's just because we are in several processes, but we've seen a lot more of what I would call mid- to late-stage development, which are technically acquisitions, but they're really just us coming in and taking over.

Marc Murnaghan: And partly that's just because we are in several processes, but we've seen a lot more of what I would call mid- to late-stage development, which are technically acquisitions, but they're really just us coming in and taking over. That's really, really increased. And when we look at those with whether it's batteries or solar or the combination of the two, the construction risk and the construction timeline being, call it, we think the risk is relatively low, the timelines are relatively low, that you're all in sort of multiple on those, is just significantly lower than what we're seeing on the acquisition side. That the gap just doesn't justify really going for these acquisitions.

Speaker #4: That's really increased and when we look at those, when you're with whether it's batteries or solar or the combination of the two, the construction risk and the construction timeline being call it we think the risk is relatively low.

Speaker #4: The timelines are relatively low. That you're all in sort of multiple on those is just significantly lower than what we're seeing on the acquisition side.

Speaker #4: That the gap just doesn't justify really going for these acquisitions. It justifies going for call it the shovel-ready or six months to shovel-ready type projects, which is what we're seeing in for sure Puerto Rico a couple of the other markets and for sure Mexico now.

Marc Murnaghan: It justifies going for, call it, the shovel-ready or 6-month shovel-ready type projects, which is what we're seeing in, for sure, Puerto Rico, a couple of the other markets, and for sure Mexico now. So I would say that I wouldn't want people to think there's a ton of M&A activity for this year. I think it's gonna be much more on the late-stage development activity.

Speaker #4: So I would say that I wouldn't want people to think there's a ton of M&A activity for this year. I think it's going to be much more on the late-stage development activity.

Speaker #3: Okay. So you're seeing a stronger skew of potential for, I guess, in development assets than operating or better returns, I guess, right now at this point?

Melissa Dean: Okay, so you're seeing a stronger skew of potential for, I guess, in development assets than operating, or better returns, I guess, right now at this point?

Melissa Dunn: Okay, so you're seeing a stronger skew of potential for, I guess, in development assets than operating, or better returns, I guess, right now at this point?

Speaker #4: Yes. And part of that, too, is I would say there's been a real push by off-takers in all the jurisdictions where we're seeing activity, that are forcing developers to basically partner with people with a balance sheet, track record, and ability to put up LCs or guarantees.

Marc Murnaghan: Yes, and part of that, too, is I would say there's been a real push by off-takers in all the jurisdictions we're seeing that where there's activity to. They're forcing developers to basically partner with people with a balance sheet, track record, and ability to put up, you know, LCs or guarantees prior to getting contracts. So the developers can't go all the way to having a PPA in hand and then, you know, selling it to the top bidder. It's just not possible anymore. So they're being forced to basically come sooner, which is it making the economics more attractive for, call it, companies like ourselves, that do have access to capital.

Speaker #4: Prior to getting contracts. So the developers can't go all the way to having a PPA in hand and then selling it to the top bidder.

Speaker #4: That's just not possible anymore. So they're being forced to basically to come sooner, which is making the economics more attractive for call it companies like ourselves that do have access to capital.

Speaker #3: Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. And just on the Mexico opportunity that you mentioned, you said I think 1,000 megawatts of project availability. You signed an exclusivity agreement.

Melissa Dean: Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. And just on the Mexico opportunity that you mentioned, you said, I think 1,000 MW of project availability, you signed an exclusivity agreement. Can you talk about the PPA structures you're seeing in the Mexico market in terms of contract duration and what kind of IRR opportunities you're seeing there as well?

Melissa Dunn: Okay, perfect. That's very helpful. And just on the Mexico opportunity that you mentioned, you said, I think 1,000 MW of project availability, you signed an exclusivity agreement. Can you talk about the PPA structures you're seeing in the Mexico market in terms of contract duration and what kind of IRR opportunities you're seeing there as well?

Speaker #3: Can you talk about the PPA structures you're seeing in the Mexico market in terms of contract duration and what kind of IRR opportunities you're seeing there as well?

Speaker #4: Yeah. So the durations are, I'd say, the low end 15, but 20 to 25 would be is typical. So good duration. But the way that you are required to have three-hour or sorry, 30% coverage with storage for three hours.

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah. So the durations are, I'd say, the low end 15, but 20 to 25 would be-- is typical, so, so good, good duration. But the, the way that you are required to have 3-hour... Sorry, 30% coverage with, with storage, for 3 hours, so not 4, which is interesting. But, but so you-- as long as you have that, you can get capacity. So, so it's not just that they're not just energy PPAs, they're, they're sort of energy plus capacity. So you're-- and I, I would say that the economics sort of break down, that it's, call it approximately 70% is your energy and 30% is your capacity, but they're both, you know, it's-- you're actually getting contracted for the capacity for the life of it.

Speaker #4: So not four, which is interesting. But so as long as you have that, you can get capacity. So it's not just that they're not just energy PPAs.

Speaker #4: They're sort of energy plus capacity. So and I would say that the economics sort of break down that it's call it approximately 70% is your energy and 30% is your capacity, but they're both you're actually getting contracted for the capacity for the life of it.

Speaker #4: You're not having to—it's not as if you get a contracted energy price and then you're going spot on the capacity. You're getting both for the life of the contract.

Marc Murnaghan: You're not having to. It's not as if you get a contracted energy price and then you're going spot on the capacity. You're getting that, you're getting both for the life of the contract. In terms of IRRs, I would say, for the cleanest sort of CFE, you know, highest credit quality, you're gonna be in the 12 to 14, and then IRR and then others, you know, we're seeing would bring that to 13 to 16%. So I'd still say you're close, it's mid-teens, maybe 14% is the right number. But strategically for the company, I think what we're really trying to do, so it's not as high as what we see, for instance, in Puerto Rico or call it Dominican or call it Caribbean.

Speaker #4: In terms of IRRs, I would say for the cleanest sort of CFE highest credit quality are going to be in the 12 to 14.

Speaker #4: And then IRR and then others we're seeing would bring that 13 to 16%. So it's still say you're close. It's mid-teens, maybe 14% is the right number.

Speaker #4: But strategically for the company, I think what we're really trying to do so it's not as high as what we see, for instance, in Puerto Rico or call it Dominican or call it Caribbean.

Marc Murnaghan: But we do think that bringing on those megawatts is much more, call it, predictable in terms of timeline. It's much bigger, the market, so we don't need a huge- we-- it's a very small market share that we need to be, call it, material for Polaris. But so the combination, I would say, of, of, call it, megawatts coming from that market, Mexico, on a much more, call it, bankable basis with the much higher impact, returns, from the Caribbean, is the combination we're looking for. Now, a lot of that, realistically, though, in Mexico, is not going to be shovel-ready until, call it Q4 or Q1 of next year. So the timing of it is important too, which is... We get the ASAP, and that's gonna become this year's big CapEx project.

Speaker #4: But we do think that bringing on those megawatts is much more call it predictable in terms of timeline. It's much bigger. The market. So we don't need a huge it's a very small market share that we need to be call it material for Polaris.

Speaker #4: But so the combination, I would say, of call it megawatts coming from that market in Mexico on a much more call it bankable basis with the much higher impact returns from the Caribbean is the combination we're looking for.

Speaker #4: Now, a lot of that realistically, though, in Mexico is not going to be shovel-ready until call it Q4 or Q1 of next year. So the timing of it is important too, which is we get the ASAP.

Speaker #4: That's going to become this year's big CapEx project. But then we will have something I would say in Mexico on the backs of that, but more for next year.

Marc Murnaghan: But then we will have something, I would say, in Mexico on the backs of that, but more for next year.

Speaker #3: Okay. Understood. And just for those Mexico projects, the construction timeline, I believe, for SO1, and Puerto Rico was 12 months or less. Are you seeing similar construction timelines for Mexico, or do these differ quite materially?

Melissa Dean: Okay, understood. And just for those Mexico projects, the construction timeline, I believe, for SO-One and, and Puerto Rico was 12 months or less. Are you seeing similar construction timelines for Mexico, or do these differ-

Melissa Dunn: Okay, understood. And just for those Mexico projects, the construction timeline, I believe, for SO-One and, and Puerto Rico was 12 months or less. Are you seeing similar construction timelines for Mexico, or do these differ-

Melissa Dean: -quite materially?

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah.

Melissa Dunn: -quite materially?

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah.

Speaker #4: Yeah. No, I would say 12, 15 months. Similar. Very similar.

Marc Murnaghan: No, I would say 12, 15 months. Similar. Very similar.

Speaker #3: Okay. Perfect. I'll help back in the queue. Thank you.

Melissa Dean: Okay, perfect. I'll, I'll hop back in the queue. Thank you.

Melissa Dunn: Okay, perfect. I'll, I'll hop back in the queue. Thank you.

Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Nicholas Boychuk with ATB Cormark. Your line is live.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Nicholas Boychuk with ATB Cormark. Your line is live.

Speaker #6: Thanks, Morningmark. Just coming back to the 10-hour I'm wondering if you can kind of expand a little bit more on that curtailment issue. Specifically, how much it might impact this year if there's anything you can do about it.

Nicholas Boychuk: Thanks. Morning, Marc. Just coming back to the DR.

Marc Murnaghan: Hey.

Nicholas Boychuk: I'm wondering if you can kind of expand a little bit more on that curtailment issue, specifically how much it might impact this year, if there's anything you can do about it. And I know you mentioned that they are looking to do battery energy storage, but it feels like that absolutely has to happen here, and I'm curious what signals you're getting from the regulators in the Dominican as to the size and urgency of needing battery energy storage on their grid.

Speaker #6: And I know you mentioned that they are looking to do battery energy storage, but it feels like that absolutely has to happen here. And I'm curious what signals you're getting from the regulators in the Dominican as to the size and urgency of needing battery energy storage on their grid?

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah. So we were about 6,000MWh last year. It's hard to gauge exactly where that's gonna land, you know, this year. I think that's a reasonable number. I think our budget, to be conservative, is we've assumed sort of 10,000 for this year, and then we think it'll drop because we know that they are taking the storage seriously. You know, I don't want to sort of really promise anything on sort of us doing more storage there, though, but we're... You know that we're gonna try to be in the mix. I...

Speaker #4: Yeah. So we were about 6,000 megawatt-hours last year. It's hard to gauge exactly where that's going to land. This year, I think it's a that's a reasonable number.

Speaker #4: I think our budget to be conservative is we assume sort of 10,000 for this year. And then we think it'll drop because we know that they are taking the storage seriously.

Speaker #4: I don't want to sort of really promise anything on us doing more storage there, though. But you know that we're going to try to be in the mix.

Speaker #4: What I can say is that we do know they're taking it very seriously, and we based on what we have heard from them, and what we're seeing them do is that they would agree with our assessment, which is that the best way sort of forward here is to have numerous sites call it storage as transmission to absorb that energy in the middle of the day.

Marc Murnaghan: What I can say is that we do know they're taking it very seriously, and we, based on what we have heard from them, what we're seeing them do, is that they would agree with our assessment, which is that the best way sort of forward here is to have numerous sites, call it storage transmission, to absorb that energy in the middle of the day. I mean, and they have very expensive cost energy and need at night. So it's not as if they're, you know, awash in energy from 6 to 10 PM. They need it. It's that they just have too much during the day. So I don't think there's any disagreement now in terms of the way forward.

Speaker #4: I mean, they have very expensive energy costs and need it at night. So, it's not as if they're washing energy from 6 to 10 p.m.

Speaker #4: They need it. It's that they just have too much during the day. So I don't think there's any disagreement now in terms of the way forward.

Marc Murnaghan: It's just, it's gonna be hard to handicap exactly, you know, what we can do there. So I think sort of short term, call it more curtailment this year, but I do think they'll get their act together such that next year that they will have resolved the situation, at some point next year, in terms of the actual curtailment. And we're gonna-- we'll see what we can do in terms of... And, and I think if, if we can do that, or as long as they do that, I think it is a market you still want to participate in, in some form or fashion. Yeah.

Speaker #4: It's going to be hard to handicap exactly what we can do there. So I think sort of short-term, call it more curtailment this year, but I do think they'll get their act together such that next year that they will have resolved the situation at some point next year in terms of the actual curtailment.

Speaker #4: And we're going to we'll see what we can do in terms of and I think if we can do that, as long as they do that, I think it is a market you still want to participate in.

Speaker #4: In some form or fashion. Yeah.

Speaker #6: Okay. Understood. You mentioned there's a couple of new relationships with local developers, and it sounds like the activity in that sphere is really picking up.

Nicholas Boychuk: Understood. You mentioned there's a couple new relationships with local developers, and it sounds like the activity in that sphere is really picking up. I'm curious if you can expand a little bit on the drivers behind that. Is it as much a lack of capital in the local market where these guys need to partner with someone like yourself? You mentioned that, but I'm curious if there's also a bit of a nationalization and energy sovereignty, and these, you know, regulators are pushing more of this in their market to decouple from things like fossil fuels. And I guess the whole point of the question is trying to figure out, is this the earliest innings of a push like this?

Speaker #6: I'm curious if you can expand a little bit on the drivers behind that. Is it as much a lack of capital in the local market, where these guys need to partner with someone like yourself?

Speaker #6: You mentioned that, but I'm curious if there's also a bit of a nationalization and energy sovereignty in these regulators are pushing more of this in their market to decouple from things like fossil fuels.

Speaker #6: And I guess the whole point of the question is trying to figure out, is this the earliest ending of a push like this? And are we going to see a lot more activity in the coming 6, 12, 18 months?

Nicholas Boychuk: And, are we gonna see a lot more activity in the coming 6, 12, 18 months?

Speaker #4: So, in terms of actual, I would say that the dynamic that I was mentioning—of developers being sort of forced to talk to companies like us earlier—I would say we're seeing that in every market that we're in.

Marc Murnaghan: So in terms of actual count, I would say that the dynamic that I was mentioning of developers are being sort of forced to talk to companies like us earlier. I would say we're seeing that in every market that we're in. And then that's just, I think that the driving factor is more that the, whichever the government entity is that's running a process or that's the contracting entity, I think, have had experiences where they've just dealt with a lot of developers that couldn't get a project to the finish line. You know, and so that just seems to be a thread in all these markets. So I... It's not specific to anyone. So, I think that's the reason why it's happening.

Speaker #4: And that's just I think that the driving factor is more that the whichever the government entity is that's running a process or that's the contracting entity, I think has experiences where the they've just dealt with a lot of developers that couldn't get a project to the finish line.

Speaker #4: And so that just seems to be a thread in all these markets. So it's not specific to anyone. So I think that's the reason why it's happening.

Marc Murnaghan: I think we're just in a nice position there with cash on the balance sheet and operating track record in the region that, you know, we tick the boxes. And so it was literally just... We started looking at projects, for instance, in Mexico, you know, last January, quietly, and met with a bunch of the different government entities, and it was only because of that that we actually got invited to participate. So we didn't even actually have, when we got the invitation to participate, we didn't have a specific project. We have specific projects now that we're going to be submitting, but we got invited to participate just because of our CV, call it. But no sort of small developers without operating experience were invited. I don't know if I'm answering...

Speaker #4: And I think we're just in a nice position there with cash on the balance sheet and operating track record in the region that we tick the boxes.

Speaker #4: And so, it was literally just, we started looking at projects, for instance, in Mexico last January, quietly, and met with a bunch of the different government entities.

Speaker #4: And it was only because of that that we actually got invited to participate. So we didn't even actually have when we got the invitation to participate, we didn't have a specific project.

Speaker #4: We have specific projects now that we're going to be submitting, but we got invited to participate just because of our CV, call it. But no sort of small developers without operating experience were invited.

Speaker #4: I don't know if I'm answering because I think there were several questions in your question. So ask away if I didn't answer them all.

Marc Murnaghan: I think there were several questions in your, in your question, so ask away, but I didn't answer them all.

Nicholas Boychuk: No, I guess the only other thing is if you're hearing anything about energy sovereignty and the decoupling of fossil fuels?

Speaker #6: No, I guess the only other thing is if you're hearing anything about energy sovereignty and the decoupling of fossil fuels.

Speaker #4: So energy, what? I missed that word next.

Marc Murnaghan: Sorry, energy what? I missed that word. Next.

Speaker #6: Energy sovereignty, like just making sure that these grids are not in any way tied to external markets—like the US supplying fossil fuels, natural gas, and diesel.

Nicholas Boychuk: Energy sovereignty, like, just making sure that these grids are not in any way tied to external markets, like, you know, the US supplying fossil fuels, natural gas, and diesel.

Marc Murnaghan: ... No, I wouldn't. I'm not hearing that. I think they do want to be self-sufficient. I think unfortunately, sort of in on that issue, Nick, I'd say it's almost different for every different market we're looking at. So for instance, obviously, Puerto Rico is part of the United States, so it's got its own character. Mexico, I would actually say, as being a Canadian company, is quite helpful there. And DR, I would say it has, where they're at, it has much more to do with, call it the too much energy in the day, i.e., the curtailment issue is absolutely the driving factor. So I would say there's no common thread on that front in the different markets that we're in.

Speaker #4: No, I wouldn't. I'm not hearing that. I think they do want to be self-sufficient. I think, unfortunately, on that issue, Nick, I'd say it's almost different for every market we're looking at.

Speaker #4: So for instance, obviously, Puerto Rico is part of the United States. So it's got its own it's got its own character. Mexico, I would actually say us being a Canadian company is quite helpful.

Speaker #4: There, and DR, I would say it has where they're at, it has much more to do with call it the too much energy in the day i.e. curtailment issue is absolutely the driving factor.

Speaker #4: So, I would say there's no common thread on that front in the different markets that we're in.

Speaker #6: Okay, makes sense. And then last from you, just on timing and magnitude of CapEx. So, if ASAP goes through with this, now in quorum board, when do you think that would turn on?

Nicholas Boychuk: Okay, makes sense. And then last for me, just on timing and magnitude of CapEx. So if ASAP goes through with this now in quorum board, when do you think that would turn on? And how are you thinking about overall capital availability for that, potentially battery energy storage in the Dominican, these other RFPs in Puerto Rico, your 1,000MW in Mexico? That's a lot of, you know, irons in the fire. How are you feeling about the balance sheet?

Speaker #6: And how are you thinking about overall capital availability for that, potentially better energy storage in the Dominican? These other RFPs in Puerto Rico, your 1,000 megawatts in Mexico, that's a lot of irons in the fire.

Speaker #6: How are you feeling about the balance sheet?

Speaker #4: Yeah. So I would also say that we've moved a bit to last year was we had one we had other fires, you know, but it was we really were focused on the ASAP.

Marc Murnaghan: Yeah, and so I would also say that we've moved a bit to... Last year, it was, we had one, like, we had other irons in the fire, as you know, but it was, we really were focused on the ASAP. So we are, I'm much more, we're more on the, you know, have many more irons in the fire and then to get the optionality for us. I would also say that I am relatively confident that with our cash position, but also still a conservative balance sheet, that our ability to raise, I would say, fixed income capital to top up there, is quite significant and at rates that are better than what we did before. And that can really...

Speaker #4: So we are I'm much more we're more on the have many more irons in the fire and then to get the optionality. For us, I would also say that I am relatively confident that with our cash position, but also still a conservative balance sheet, that our ability to raise I would say fixed income capital to top up there is quite significant.

Speaker #4: And at rates that are better than what we did before. That can really—and those rates can work in all of these markets we're looking at, in terms of the growth opportunities.

Marc Murnaghan: Those rates can work in all of these markets we're looking at in terms of the growth opportunities. So, we want a lot more irons in the fire, and I think we can fund what we're looking at. So the theory is a bit like, let's get to the point where we have, we have, call it too much to do, and then we have to start, you know, paring back and choosing. But I would say this year, it's still most likely, call it, the tiny acquisition, ASAP. And then, call it, announcements and, you know, dotting the i's, crossing the t's on CapEx programs that are realistically gonna start maybe Q4. But I'd say more likely starting Q1, Q2, Q3 next year for projects that are coming online.

Speaker #4: So we want a lot more irons in the fire. And I think we can fund what we're looking at. And so the theory is a bit like, let's get to the point where we have call it too much to do, and then we have to start paring back and choosing.

Speaker #4: But I would say this year, it's still most likely call it tiny acquisition, ASAP, and then call it announcements and dotting the I's, crossing the T's on CapEx programs that are realistically going to start maybe Q4.

Speaker #4: But I'd say more likely starting Q1, Q2, Q3 next year for projects that are coming online. So if you call it ASAPs coming online, Q1, Q2 next year, the rest of it is call it 12 months behind that.

Marc Murnaghan: So if you call it ASAP's coming online, Q1, Q2 next year, the rest of it is, call it, 12 months behind that, and even 12-- I would say 12 and 24 months behind that. So you're gonna see sort of a, some clarity on what 2027 is gonna look like. The CapEx this year for 2027 cash flow, but also then having a line of sight on realistically CapEx for 2027 and 2028, for revenue, cash flow in 2028, 2029.

Speaker #4: And even 12, I would say 12 and 24 months behind that. So you're going to see sort of a some clarity on what 27 is going to look like.

Speaker #4: The CapEx this year for 27, cash flow, but also then having a line of sight on realistically CapEx for 27 and 28 for revenue cash flow in 28, 29.

Nicholas Boychuk: Okay, got it. Thank you.

Speaker #6: Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Speaker #4: And everything we're seeing at least that we're working on is such that it's all I would say chunky enough that the call it the numbers that we have in our presentation for where it'd be in 2029, we're definitely they're big enough to get there.

Marc Murnaghan: Everything we're seeing, at least that we're working on, is such that it's all, I would say, chunky enough that the numbers that we have in our presentation for where it'll be in 2029, you know, we're definitely... They're big enough to get there.

Speaker #6: Perfect.

Nicholas Boychuk: Perfect.

Speaker #4: And one ad I would say is that I wouldn't say this let's say for Puerto Rico or Dominican. But what I would say for Mexico is if there's too much, quote-unquote, which I don't I don't think there's going to be I think we need to assume that there's a certain hit rate, right?

Marc Murnaghan: And one add I would say is that, I wouldn't say this, let's say, for Puerto Rico or Dominican, but what I would say for Mexico is, if there's “too much,” which I don't, you know, I don't think there is going to be. I think we need to assume that there's a certain hit rate, right? But if there was, I would say there's a lot of local capital there that is very interested in participating alongside companies like ours. So I do think that there's a possibility. It's early days, but I do think there's a possibility that you have... You know, we don't need to be 100% of the local sort of SPV.

Speaker #4: But if there was, I would say there's a lot of local capital there that is very interested in participating alongside companies like ours. So I do think that there's a possibility it's early days, but I do think there's a possibility that you have we don't need to be 100% of the local sort of SPV if there's a lot of megawatts there.

Marc Murnaghan: If there's a lot of megawatts there, I think we can find relatively attractively priced capital, both on the debt and an equity side there.

Speaker #4: I think we can find relatively attractively priced capital, both on the debt and equity side there.

Speaker #7: Thank you. As we have no further questions on the lines at this time, this will conclude today's Q&A session and today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

Operator: Thank you. As we have no further questions on the lines at this time, this will conclude today's Q&A session and today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day, and we thank you for your participation.

Speaker #7: And have a wonderful day. And we thank you for your participation.

Speaker #4: Thank you.

Marc Murnaghan: Thank you.

Nicholas Boychuk: Thank you.

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