Q4 2025 Tomra Systems ASA Earnings Call
Daniel Sundahl: Welcome to TOMRA's Q4 2025 results presentation. My name is Daniel Sundahl, and I'm head of Investor Relations. As is usual, Tove Andersen, our CEO, will start today's presentation by giving you the highlights, and afterwards, CFO Eva Sagemo will dive deeper into the numbers and give you the updated outlook. After the presentation, we will open up for Q&A for participants in the team's webinar. The link to it can be found in this morning's stock exchange release. We aim to conclude the presentation around 8:40AM today, but without further ado, I give the word to Tove Andersen.
Speaker #1: Come to TOMRA's 4th Quarter Result Presentation for 2025. My name is Daniel Sundahl, and I'm Head of Investor Relations. As is usual, Tove Andersen, our CEO, will start today's presentation by giving you the highlights, and afterwards CFO Eva Sagemo will dive deeper into the numbers and give you the updated outlook.
Speaker #1: And after the presentation, we will open up for Q&A for participants in the team's webinar. The link to it can be found in this morning's Stock Exchange release.
Speaker #1: We aim to conclude the presentation around 8:40 today. But without further ado, I give the word to Tove Andersen.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Daniel, and also welcome from me to our Q4 presentation today. A strong final quarter in a year that has been characterized by volatility and market uncertainties.
Tove Andersen: Thank you, Daniel, and also welcome from me to our Q4 2025 presentation. We present today a strong final quarter in a year that has been characterized by volatility and market uncertainties. In collection, we report a record quarter, record revenue, and record EBITDA, and we have seen that the rollout in Poland and Portugal is stepping up. Recycling, we are presenting a good quarter in a year that has been a weak year due to the challenging market sentiment. In food, we are seeing the results of the improvement initiatives and an improving market sentiment, and we deliver a strong quarter, which also then makes 2025 a record year regarding profitability in the food segment. Let me then give you an update on the different divisions and our horizon portfolio. I start with the collection.
Speaker #2: In Collection, we report a record quarter, record revenue, and record EBITDA, and we have seen that the rollout in Poland and Portugal is stepping up.
Speaker #2: In recycling, we are presenting a good quarter in a year that has been a weak year due to the challenging market sentiment. And in food, we are seeing the results of the improvement initiatives and an improving market sentiment, and we deliver a strong quarter, which also then makes 2025 a record year regarding profitability in the food segment.
Speaker #2: Let me then give you an update on the different divisions and our horizon portfolio. I will start with Collection. In Collection, we have had very good sales in existing markets in the quarter.
Tove Andersen: In Collection, we have had very good sales in existing markets in the quarter. As many of you know, we have a strategic ambition that we should grow our existing markets with 5% annually. In 2025, existing market represented 87% of our sales. In this quarter, we saw particularly good growth in Continental Europe, partly then driven by our new innovations, and one of those are our multi-feed machines, the ones where you don't need to put one and one bottle into the RVMs, but you can just drop a whole bag of bottles into the machines. We did increase our installations of multi-feed machines with 50% in 2025, and we have roughly now 1,100 multi-feed machines installed. Also in the quarter, we saw then installations in Poland and Portugal slowly picking up.
Speaker #2: As many of you know, we have a strategic ambition that we should grow our existing markets by 5% annually. And in 2025, existing markets represented 87% of our sales.
Speaker #2: In this quarter, we saw particularly good growth in continental Europe, partly then driven by our new innovations. And one of those are our multi-feed machines, the ones where you don't need to put one-on-one bottle into the RBMs, but you can just drop a whole bag of bottles into the machines.
Speaker #2: And we did increase our installations of multi-feed machines by 50% in 2025, and we have roughly now 1,100 multi-feed machines installed. Also, in the quarter, we saw the installations in Poland and Portugal slowly picking up.
Tove Andersen: We delivered 1,000 or installed 1,000 reverse vending machines in Poland in Q4. And if you look at the picture top right here, that is a picture from Poland. This is our S2 machine that we developed then specifically for Poland. It's an outdoor machine, and as you can see from the picture, it can endure cold weather, snow, rain, and also warm weather. And a significant portion of what we are installing in Poland is this machine. But also, as this picture illustrates, it's been quite a challenging period to install outdoor machines in Poland, and I'm very impressed by our service technicians and installation people, that they've been able to install so many machines despite snow storm and really bad weather.
Speaker #2: We delivered 1,000, or installed 1,000, reverse vending machines in Poland in Q4. And if you look at the picture top right here, that is a picture from Poland.
Speaker #2: This is our S2 machine that we developed, specifically for Poland. It's an outdoor machine, and as you can see from the picture, it can endure cold weather, snow, rain, and also warm weather.
Speaker #2: And a significant portion of what we are installing in Poland is this machine. But also, as this picture illustrates, it's been quite a challenging period to install outdoor machines in Poland.
Speaker #2: And I'm very impressed by our service technicians and installation people that they've been able to install so many machines despite snowstorms and really bad weather.
Speaker #2: End of last year, we had roughly 2,600 machines then installed in Poland, and we are currently installing 100 machines per week. So we have roughly now 3,000 reverse vending machines in Poland.
Tove Andersen: End of last year, we had roughly 2,600 machines then installed in Poland, and we are currently installing 100 machines per week, so we have roughly now 3,000 reverse vending machines in Poland. Also in Portugal, we are then stepping up installation. We installed around 300 machines in Q4, making then end of the year an installation base of 500 machines in Portugal, and today we have roughly 700 machines in Portugal, but there is still much left to install. In Poland, as we communicated before, the first phase with the large retailers represent 10 to 12,000 reverse vending machine, and then we expect a significant tail, which could be 5,000 machines or even more.
Speaker #2: Also in Portugal, we are then stepping up installation. We installed around 300 machines in Q4, making the end of the year an installed base of 500 machines in Portugal.
Speaker #2: And today, we have roughly 700 machines in Portugal. But there is still much left to install. In Poland, as we've communicated before, the first phase with the large retailers represents 10,000 to 12,000 reverse vending machines.
Speaker #2: And then we expect a significant tail, which could be 5,000 machines or even more. So, we do expect that we will see a similar tail as we have seen in, for example, Romania, where we have been continuing installing machines still now, so late after the go-live.
Tove Andersen: So we do expect that we will see a similar tail as we have seen in, for example, Romania, where we have been continuing installing machines still now, so late after the go live. So actually, our installed base in Romania last year grew with 20%. Also, we have seen similar things in Hungary, where our installed base in Hungary last year, 2025, increased with 30%. Another highlight is that we have been appointed as a return point network operator in Singapore as 103 with a minimum installation of 350 RVMs, and we are very excited and looking forward to work with BCRS, which is the system operator there, to make this a successful launch of the first deposit system in Asia.
Speaker #2: So actually, our install base in Romania last year grew by 20%. Also, we have seen similar things in Hungary, where our install base in Hungary last year, 2025, increased by 30%.
Speaker #2: Another highlight is that we have been appointed as a return point network operator in Singapore as 103, with a minimum installation of 350 RVMs, and we are very excited and looking forward to work with BCRS, which is the system operator there, to make this a successful launch of the first deposit system in Asia.
Speaker #2: And then, of course, this year, an exciting thing is the UK. The UK will go live with a deposit scheme in November next year, November 2027.
Tove Andersen: Then, of course, this year, an exciting thing is UK. UK will go live with a deposit scheme in November next year, November 2027, and we are seeing significant commercial activities there. We believe so many of the large retailers have already published an RFP, and we expect others to do it shortly, so we believe a lot of the contracts will be signed this year, but we expect most of the installations then to happen in 2027. Also in the UK, there has been questions about if it's the whole UK that will go live next year or if Wales will not be part of it, and there was some positive news that came out yesterday.
Speaker #2: And we are seeing significant commercial activities there. We believe many of the large retailers have already published an RFP, and we expect others to do it shortly.
Speaker #2: So, we believe a lot of the contracts will be signed this year, but we expect most of the installations then to happen in 2027.
Speaker #2: Also, in the UK, there have been questions about whether it’s the whole UK that will go live next year or if Wales will not be part of it.
Speaker #2: And there were some positive news that came out yesterday. So, it was a press release that the deposit return scheme for drinks containers in Wales, the regulation had been laid to the Parliament.
Tove Andersen: So, it was a press release that the deposit return scheme for drinks containers in Wales, the regulation had been laid to the Parliament, and it was then stating that they have now an agreement with UK, where the debate has been around glass... and that they now are planning to go live also then on 1 October. Still needs Senate approval, but it looks like everything is set up now for that the whole of UK will go live late next year. In addition to that, as always, we have included on the slide here the different countries. I'll give a short update on the ones that I haven't commented upon. Greece was supposed to go live late last year. It has been delayed, and there is not communicated yet a new start date.
Speaker #2: And it was then stating that they have now an agreement with the UK, where the debate has been around glass, and that they now are planning to go live also then on the 1st of October.
Speaker #2: It still needs Senate approval, but it looks like everything is set up now for the whole of the UK to go live late next year.
Speaker #2: In addition to that, as always, we have included on the slide here the different countries. I'll give a short update on the ones that I haven't commented upon.
Speaker #2: Greece was supposed to go live late last year. It has been delayed, and there is not yet a new start date communicated. Moldova has announced that they are going ahead with the deposit scheme, with the latest startup in January 2027.
Tove Andersen: Moldova has announced that they are going ahead with the deposit scheme, with the latest startup in January 2027. And in Spain, we are waiting for the scheme operator to be appointed. There was an expectation that that will happen late last year. It hasn't happened, and we are now seeing when it's going to happen. If it doesn't happen before May this year, there might be 1 year further delay. And you can expect that after a scheme operator is appointed, it takes 1 to 2 years before the scheme goes live. But overall, no question about if, it's really about when.
Speaker #2: And in Spain, we are waiting for the scheme operator to be appointed. There was an expectation that that would happen late last year. It hasn't happened.
Speaker #2: And we are now seeing if it's—when it's going to happen. If it doesn't happen before May this year, there might be a one-year further delay.
Speaker #2: And you can expect that after a scheme operator is appointed, it takes one to two years before the scheme goes live. But overall, no question about if—it's really about when.
Speaker #2: And, of course, the underlying picture here is the targets that are part of the Single-Use Plastic Directive and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, which all EU countries need to meet—the collection targets in 2029. This means that they will need to implement a deposit system.
Tove Andersen: And of course, the underlying picture here is the targets that are part of the single-use plastic directive and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, that all EU countries needs to meet the collection targets in 2029, which means that they will need to implement a deposit system. Then over to recycling. I want to start with that we really believe in the long, mid- to long-term picture within recycling. The way that we are utilizing our resources today is not sustainable. If you look at all resources we use annually, less than 8% is circular, so this needs to change, and most waste streams comes as a mixed waste stream, which means that you need to have automated sorting to enable this at scale.
Speaker #2: Then, over to recycling. I want to start with that we really believe in the mid- to long-term picture within recycling. The way that we are utilizing our resources today is not sustainable.
Speaker #2: If you look at all resources we use annually, less than 8% is circular. So this needs to change. And most waste streams come as a mixed waste stream, which means that you need to have automated sorting to enable this at scale.
Speaker #2: However, currently, we do see a weak market sentiment, especially within plastics and waste in Europe, but also in the Americas. This is driven by low plastic prices. It is also driven by the fact that the new targets are not really kicking in before 2030, because in Europe we have the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation.
Tove Andersen: However, currently, we do see a weak market sentiment, especially within plastics, and waste in Europe, but also in the Americas. This is driven by low plastic prices. It's driven by that the new targets are not really kicking in, before 2030, because in Europe, we have the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation with the targets for 2030, which then, to be met, you need to at least double the infrastructure in Europe. And it's also in Europe, the reason for weak market sentiment is import, cheap import from Asia.
Speaker #2: With the targets for 2030, which then, to be met, you need at least double the infrastructure in Europe. And it's also in Europe—the reason for weak market sentiment is import, cheap import from Asia.
Speaker #2: And it's positive to see that the EU recognized the challenges that the plastic recycling industry in Europe has and are facing. And last week, they passed what they call a winter package, a circularity winter package, which is about how to implement a single-use plastic directive, especially how to calculate for the recycled content. Saying that if you are going to include recycled material to meet a recycled content target, until late next year, November next year, it needs to be sourced from the EU.
Tove Andersen: And it's positive to see that the EU recognize the challenges that the plastic recycling industry in Europe has and are facing, and they, last week, they passed what they call a winter package, a circularity winter package, which is about how to implement the single-use plastic directive, especially then how to calculate for the recycled content. Saying that, if you are going to include recycled material to meet the recycled content target until late next year, November next year, it needs to be sourced from the EU, and after that, there needs to be mirror process, which means that the import of material needs to meet the same strict regulations on environmental health and waste management as in the EU. So it's good to see that there are some movements there to secure that recycling industry in Europe.
Speaker #2: And after that, there needs to be mirror clauses, which means that the importer material needs to meet the same strict regulations on environmental health and waste management as in the EU.
Speaker #2: So it's good to see that there are some movements there to secure the recycling industry in Europe. However, we don't expect, then, a short-term recovery.
Tove Andersen: However, we don't expect then a short-term recovery. We don't expect a recovery in this market this year, and we'll see then what will happen next year. So that's why we had to take measures to ensure that we are regaining our profitability at the levels we want it to be. Our revenue for 2025 is 18% down versus the year before, and we really need now to adjust and rightsize our organization to meet the current market sentiment. So that's why on Wednesday, we informed our employees in recycling about the cost reduction initiative. The objective of that initiative is to take us back to an EBITDA percentage above 20% as soon as possible. We will take out EUR 16 million our cost.
Speaker #2: We don't expect a recovery in this market this year, and we will see then what will happen next year. So that's why we had to take measures to ensure that we are regaining our profitability at the levels we wanted to be.
Speaker #2: Our revenue for 2025 is 18% down versus the year before. And we really need now to adjust and right-size our organization to meet the current market sentiment.
Speaker #2: So that's why, on Wednesday, we informed our employees in Recycling about the cost reduction initiative. The objective of that initiative is to take us back to an EBITDA percentage above 20% as soon as possible.
Speaker #2: We will take out €16 million of our cost. This will then have a full effect from next year, 2027. And it represents approximately 175 positions.
Tove Andersen: This will then have a full effect from next year, 2027, and it represents approximately 175 positions. Also we will work on optimizing our global footprint and the supply chain, and the objective there is really to use this opportunity also to look at our organizational setup so that we have a more scalable global operations, going forward. Then to food. A very good year for food last year. We really now see the impact and the effects of the improvement programs that we have put in place to cut costs, but also to drive customer-facing commercial activities. At the same time, we see now a positive market sentiment in many categories, but we're also now much more well-positioned to take a significant part of that improved market sentiment.
Speaker #2: And also, we will work on optimizing our global footprint and the supply chain, and the objective there is really to use this opportunity also to look at our organizational setup so that we have more scalable global operations going forward.
Speaker #2: Then to Food, very good year for Food last year. We really now see the impact and the effects of the improvement programs that we have put in place to cut costs, but also to drive customer-facing commercial activities.
Speaker #2: At the same time, we see now a positive market sentiment in many categories. But we're also now much more well-positioned to take a significant part of that improved market sentiment.
Speaker #2: So we are then also ending last year with a very strong order backlog, with large orders to be delivered this year. Also, good to see how the profitability has improved significantly.
Tove Andersen: So we are then also ending last year with a very strong order backlog, with large orders to be delivered this year. Also good to see how the profitability has improved significantly, and as I said in my introduction, we have the highest profitability, both in absolute and percentage term, ever in our food segment. But also as part of our improvement initiative in food, we have worked a lot on our innovation agenda and our innovation roadmap, and we believe that is crucial to maintain our good margins and to gain market share in the core categories that we are focusing on. So we have a pipeline of initiatives where we will then gradually launch new products, and last week, we launched our new blueberry machine.
Speaker #2: And as I said in my introduction, we have the highest profitability—both in absolute and percentage terms—ever in our food segment. But also, as part of our improvement initiative in Food, we have worked a lot on our innovation agenda and our innovation roadmap.
Speaker #2: And we believe that it is crucial to maintain our good margins and to gain market share in the core categories that we are focusing on.
Speaker #2: So we have a pipeline of initiatives where we will then gradually launch new products. And last week, we launched our new Blueberry machine. So this is 5S, Spectrum, with LUCA, which means it has built-in our deep learning AI algorithms.
Tove Andersen: So this is 5 S Spectrum with LuCA, which means it has the built-in our deep learning AI algorithms. Blueberries is a very important segment for us. It's a segment that is growing because of increased consumption, so it's increased planting areas coming. And when you have that, you also need the infrastructure to pack and sort those blueberries. And this machine, which I think looks amazing, and it's a very cool machine, and it's very well received in the market, it's about really increasing the throughput. Speed is always important. It's making sure that we spread the blueberries well, that we have less bad material staying in the what is sorted out and the opposite.
Speaker #2: Blueberries is a very important segment for us. It's a segment that is growing because of increased consumption. So there's increased planting areas coming. And when you have that, you also need the infrastructure to pack and sort those blueberries.
Speaker #2: And this machine, which I think looks amazing, and it's a very cool machine, and it's very well received in the market—it's about really increasing the throughput speed.
Speaker #2: It's always important. It's making sure that we spread the blueberries well, that we have less bad material staying in what is sorted out, and the opposite.
Tove Andersen: And actually, this machine per second you can take 385 blueberry throughput, so its speed is very important. Very well received in the market, and we have already received orders for it. But it's a good illustration on also how we are constantly working now to keep our technology leadership to generate value going forward. Then to Horizon. Horizon is then our portfolio of business-building ventures, as we call them, where we are leveraging our competence and technology to build new businesses to create value going forward. C-trace is the company that we acquired a bit more than a year, a year ago, which is then within smart waste management. Very happy with the performance of C-trace last year.
Speaker #2: And actually, this machine, per second, you can take 385 blueberries through it. So its speed is very important. Very well received in the market.
Speaker #2: And we have already received orders for it. But it's a good illustration of also how we are constantly working now to keep our technology leadership to generate value going forward.
Speaker #2: Then to Horizon. Horizon is then our portfolio of business-building ventures, as we call them, where we are leveraging our competence and technology to build new businesses to create value going forward.
Speaker #2: C-Trace is the company that we acquired a bit more than a year ago, which is then within smart waste management. Very happy with the performance of C-Trace last year.
Tove Andersen: They delivered according to our expectations with double-digit growth and an EBITDA above 20%. Reuse is our venture for solving the problems with takeaway packaging and single-use packaging at events and festivals. Last quarter, we had the two pilots of our event solution, both the one also at the Intility Arena, and then at the FAIRGROUND Festival in Hannover. You see the picture bottom left here from Hannover. Very cool solution, where we are providing a technology solution where you have a bar plate, so when you buy the beer in the reusable cup, it's ultimately automatically matched with your payment method. After you've been drinking, you just throw it through a hole.
Speaker #2: They delivered according to our expectations, with double-digit growth and EBITDA above 20%. Reuse is our venture for solving the problems with takeaway packaging and single-use packaging at events and festivals.
Speaker #2: Last quarter, we had two pilots of our event solution—both the one in Oslo at the Integrity Area Arena, and then at the Fairground Festival in Hannover.
Speaker #2: And you see the picture bottom left here from Hannover, a very cool solution where we are providing a technology solution where you have a bar plate.
Speaker #2: So when you buy the beer in the reusable cup, it's automatically matched with your payment method after you've been drinking. You just throw it through a hole.
Speaker #2: You can even take all your friends' cups together with it and throw all of them. And they will automatically be identified with your payment card.
Tove Andersen: You can even take all your friends', cups together with it and throw all of them, and they will automatically be identified with your payment card, so you get the money back for the deposit. Very good feedback on this solution, and we are working now really hard on a scaling plan for that. Feedstock is the venture where we are focusing on solving how to divert plastic from ending in landfill or incineration. We have invested in one plant in Norway there, Omra, and we had a very good start to the operations in last quarter, and we ended then at 2025 with a positive EBITDA run rate. Ramping up now to 2 shifts.
Speaker #2: So you get the money back for the deposit. Very good feedback on this solution. And we are working now really hard on then scaling a plan for that.
Speaker #2: Feedstock is the venture where we are focusing on solving how to divert plastic from ending in landfill or incineration. We have invested in one plant in Norway there, Områ.
Speaker #2: And we had a very good start to the operations in the last quarter, and we ended then 2025 with a positive EBITDA run rate. Ramping up now to two shifts.
Tove Andersen: We also have had the German plant in construction, and we have decided that we are putting the remaining investments of the German plant on hold due to the current market situation. And we rather want to utilize the flexibility we have to find an optimal setup of our assets in order to deliver the value in our off-take agreement, which has previously been announced. For Feedstock, we are planning to have a positive EBITDA contribution in 2027. So that concludes my update, and as I said in the beginning, we end the year with a strong quarter, showing that even in a year marked by volatility and market uncertainty, TOMRA's strategic foundations are strong, and we are exceptionally well-positioned for the growth cycles ahead. With that, I hand over to Eva.
Speaker #2: We also have had a German plant in construction, and we have decided that we are putting the remaining investments of the German plant on hold due to the current market situation.
Speaker #2: And we rather want to utilize the flexibility we have to find an optimal setup of our assets in order to deliver the value in our offtake agreements, which has previously been announced.
Speaker #2: For feedstock, we are planning to have a positive EBITDA contribution in 2027. So that concludes my update. And as I said in the beginning, we end the year with a strong quarter, showing that even in a year marked by volatility and market uncertainty, TOMRA's strategic foundations are strong.
Speaker #2: And we are exceptionally well positioned for the growth cycles ahead. With that, I hand over to Eva. Thank you, Tove. And let's start with the group P&L for the fourth quarter.
Eva Sagemo: Thank you, Tove, and let's start with the group P&L for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter ended at EUR 382 million, down 4% compared to a very strong Q4 last year. Collection ended up 2% compared to a strong Q4 last year. Recycling down 27%, but in line with the conversion ratio that we estimated for the quarter, and Food down 3%, however, strong, delivering above the estimated conversion ratio. If we look at the full-year revenues, the revenues came in in line with last year, adjusted for currency effects. Gross margins ended at 46% in the quarter, in line with Q4 last year.
Speaker #2: The fourth quarter ended at €382 million, down 4% compared to a very strong Q4 last year. Collection ended up 2% compared to then a strong Q4 last year, recycling down 27%, but in line with the conversion ratio that we estimated for the quarter.
Speaker #2: And food down 3%. However, strong delivering above the estimated conversion ratio. If we look at the full year revenues, the revenues came in in line with last year, adjusted for currency effects.
Speaker #2: Gross margins ended at 46% in the quarter, in line with Q4 last year. Look at the looking at the OPEX, we have a strong cost control across our divisions in the quarter with OPEX of 105 million euros.
Eva Sagemo: Looking at the OpEx, we have a strong cost control across our divisions in the quarter, with OpEx of EUR 105 million. That is slightly up compared to Q4 last year, where most of the increase is sustained by high activity, adding in CLYNK and also inflation in the year. When we look at the EBITDA, that results in an EBITDA adjusted of EUR 71 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%. Then looking into collection, revenues came in at EUR 207 million. That is 2% up compared to a very strong Q4 last year. In Q4 last year, we had the strong sales from Austria preparing for its DRS, while this quarter, sales has come in from new markets such as Poland and Portugal.
Speaker #2: That is slightly up compared to Q4 last year, where most of the increases were sustained by high activity, adding in clink, and also inflation in the year.
Speaker #2: When we look at the EBITDA, that results in an EBITDA adjusted of €71 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%. And then, looking into Collection, revenues came in at €207 million.
Speaker #2: That is 2% up compared to a very strong Q4 last year. In Q4 last year, we had strong sales from Austria, preparing for its DRS.
Speaker #2: While this quarter, sales have come in from new markets such as Poland and Portugal. In 2025, existing markets have delivered well in line with our target of 5% annual growth, resulting in 87% of total revenues this year stemming from our existing markets.
Eva Sagemo: In 2025, existing markets have delivered well in line with our target of 5% annual growth, resulting of then 87% of total revenues this year is stemming then from our existing markets. And when we look at the contributions from a new market, that includes Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Austria. And for gross margins in collection, they have delivered a strong gross margin of 42% in the quarter, but also in the year, compared to last year, 41%.... And the gross margin in the quarter has been positively impacted by business mix, but also release of warranty accrual. As I said, good cost control in our divisions, also for collection with OpEx of EUR 47 million in the quarter, down compared to Q4 last year.
Speaker #2: And when we look at the contribution from new markets, that includes Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Austria. And for gross margins in Collection, they have delivered a strong gross margin of 42% in the quarter, but also in the year, compared to last year at 41%.
Speaker #2: And the gross margin in the quarter has been positively impacted by business mix, but also release of warranty accruals. As I said, good cost control in our divisions, also for Collection, with OPEX of €47 million in the quarter, down compared to Q4 last year.
Speaker #2: That gives us an EBITDA in the quarter of €39 million and an EBITDA percent of 19%. And we always talk about the ramp-up cost in Collection for the year.
Eva Sagemo: That gives us an EBITDA in the quarter of EUR 39 million and an EBITDA percent of 19%. We talk always about the ramp-up cost in collection for the year, and then for full year 2025, the ramp-up cost has been north of EUR 20 million in collection. Then looking at the recycling results, the top line came in at EUR 75 million. That is down compared to a very strong Q4 last year, but in line with the conversion ratio that we estimated for the quarter. And as you can see from the overview, the weak performance continues in our biggest markets, being Europe and North America, explained by the challenging market sentiment, both in the plastic segment in Europe, but also in the waste segment in the US.
Speaker #2: And then for the full year 2025, the ramp-up cost has been north of €20 million in Collection. And then, looking at the Recycling results, the top line came in at €75 million.
Speaker #2: That is down compared to a very strong Q4 last year, but in line with the conversion ratio that we estimated for the quarter. And as you can see from the overview, the weak performance continues in our biggest markets, being Europe and North America.
Speaker #2: Explained by the challenge in market sentiment both in the plastic segment in Europe, but also in the waste segment in the US. Gross margin ending at 52% in the quarter.
Eva Sagemo: Gross margin ending at 52% in the quarter, that is reduced compared to Q4 last year, however, improved compared to previous quarters this year, explained by the product mix and the segment mix in the quarter, being more waste orders and that we have sold out the sort machines in the quarter. And we are taking measures on cost in recycling, and with that, we have had EUR 1.2 million as a structuring cost in the quarter. If we look at the OpEx, it ended at EUR 19 million, which is slightly up compared to Q4 last year, but it's down compared to previous quarters this year. That's the result in an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 21 million in the quarter for recycling and an EBITDA margin of 27%.
Speaker #2: That is reduced compared to Q4 last year; however, it is improved compared to previous quarters this year, explained by the product mix and the segment mix in the quarter.
Speaker #2: There have been more waste orders, and we have sold out of sort machines in the quarter. We are also taking measures on cost in recycling.
Speaker #2: And with that, we have had €1.2 million as restructuring cost in the quarter. If we look at the OPEX, it ended at €19 million.
Speaker #2: So, which is slightly up compared to Q4 last year. But it's down compared to previous quarters this year. That results in an adjusted EBITDA of €21 million in the quarter for recycling, and an EBITDA margin of 27%.
Speaker #2: And, as always, we look into the order intake. That has continued to be weak also this quarter, explained by the market sentiment. The order intake was down 20% compared to Q4 last year, resulting in an order intake of €61 million.
Eva Sagemo: As always, we look into the order intake, and that has continued weak also this quarter, explained by the market sentiment. The order intake was down 20% compared to Q4 last year, resulting in an order intake of EUR 61 million. And that results then in a declining order backlog, declining 12% compared to end of last year. And when we look at the trailing twelve months, recycling is down 25% on the order intake. Moving over to food. Food came in strong at EUR 88 million on top line. That is down compared to last year, 3%, but higher than what we estimated on the conversion ratio. We have seen especially a strong quarter in the rest of the world and a decline in Americas.
Speaker #2: And that results, then, in a declining order backlog—declining 12% compared to the end of last year. And when we look at the trailing 12 months recycling, it's down 25% on the order intake.
Speaker #2: Moving over to Food. Food came in strong at €88 million on the top line. That is down compared to last year, 3%. But higher than what we estimated on the conversion ratio.
Speaker #2: We have seen especially a strong quarter in the rest of the world, and a decline in Americas. But if you look at the full year, all markets have delivered solid performance in 2025.
Eva Sagemo: But if you look at the full year, all markets have delivered a solid performance in 2025. Gross margin ending strong at 52%, it's significantly up compared to Q4 last year, and historically, the strongest that we have had in food. And the strong margin is a result of a combination of the full year cost savings effect, but also a positive product mix and release of warranties and tariff accruals. If we look at the OpEx, it ended at EUR 29 million, which is then flat compared to Q4 last year.
Speaker #2: Gross margin ended strong at 52%. It's significantly up compared to Q4 last year, and historically, it's the strongest that we have had in Food. The strong margin is a result of a combination of the full-year cost savings effect, but also a positive product mix and release of warranties and tariff accruals.
Speaker #2: If we look at the OPEX, it ended at €29 million, which is flat compared to Q4 last year. And as a result of the strong gross margin in the quarter, EBITDA ended at 18% in Q4, resulting in a record EBITDA margin for the year of 13%, which is an overachievement of our target of 10 to 11% EBITDA for the year.
Eva Sagemo: And as a result of the strong growth margin in the quarter, EBITDA ended at 18% in Q4, resulting then in a record EBITDA margin for the year of 13%, which is then an overachievement of our target of 10% to 11% EBITDA for the year. And also here, looking into the order intake, and for food, we have seen a continued positive momentum in the order intake throughout the year. We are up 2% compared to Q4 last year, ending then at EUR 86 million. And as I said, all regions have delivered a solid performance, and we see especially an uptick in the citrus category this year.
Speaker #2: And also here, looking into the order intake—and for Food, we have seen a continued positive momentum in the order intake throughout the year.
Speaker #2: We are up 2% compared to Q4 last year, ending then at €86 million. And as I said, all regions have delivered a solid performance.
Speaker #2: And we see especially an uptick in the citrus category this year. The order backlog was up then 26% compared to Q4 last year, ending then in a backlog of €136 million.
Eva Sagemo: The order backlog was up then 26%, compared to Q4 last year, ending then in a backlog of EUR 136 million. And also here, when we look at the trailing twelve months of order intake, it's up 12%. Still a solid balance sheet for TOMRA end of the year, and if we look into the cash flow for the quarter, it ended at EUR 24 million. It's down compared to a very strong cash flow from operations in Q4 last year. And that is explained by timing effects of customer payments and release of contract liabilities. And that's also something that you can see in the cash conversion cycle for the year.
Speaker #2: And also here, when we look at the trailing 12 months of order intake, it's up 12%. Still a solid balance sheet for TOMRA at the end of the year.
Speaker #2: And if we look into the cash flow for the quarter, it ended at €24 million. It's down compared to a very strong cash flow from operations in Q4 last year.
Speaker #2: And that is explained by timing effects of customer payments and release of contract liabilities. And that's also something that you can see in the cash conversion cycle for the year.
Speaker #2: Equity ended at 35%, and the gearing at 2.3. Our ROKI ended at 15.2%, ending 2025. Looking at the financial position, it's a nice spread of our debt maturity, ending the year at 4.2 years.
Eva Sagemo: Equity ended at 35% and the gearing at 2.3, and our ROCE ended at 15.2%, ending 2025. Looking at the financial position, it's a nice spread of our debt maturity, ending the year at 4.2 years on average, and then we had undrawn facilities of EUR 54 million, ending 2025. Moving over to the outlook, and starting with collection, as always, we mentioned that it's a high activity related to deposit return systems in new markets, but also growth in existing markets.
Speaker #2: And in average, and then we had undrawn facilities of €54 million, ending 2025. And moving over to the outlook—and starting with collection, as always, we mentioned that it's a high activity related to deposit return systems in new markets.
Speaker #2: But also growth in existing markets. And short- and mid-term performance will, of course, depend on the timing in the new markets, but also the activity that is happening in the existing markets.
Eva Sagemo: The short- and midterm performance will, of course, depending on the timing in the new markets, but also the activities happening in the existing markets. When we look at 2026, we need to separate the growth expectations into what is coming from existing markets and what is coming from new markets in collection. Starting with the existing markets, we expect revenue growth at mid-single digit annually on average, which aligns with our strategic ambition for this division, and also what we have delivered in 2025. Then for new markets, we expect Poland, Portugal, and Singapore to contribute with approximately EUR 100 million from current orders.
Speaker #2: And when we look at 2026, we need to separate the growth expectations into what is coming from existing markets and what is coming from new markets in Collection.
Speaker #2: And starting with the existing markets, we expect revenue growth at mid-single digits annually on average, which aligns with our strategic ambition for this division.
Speaker #2: And also what we have delivered in 2025. And then for new markets, we expect Poland, Portugal, and Singapore to contribute with approximately €100 million from current orders.
Speaker #2: And on top, as Tove said, there is an attractive tail in Poland, similar to what we have experienced in Romania with independent stores. Representing then a total market opportunity of approximately 5,000 machines or more.
Eva Sagemo: On top, as Tove said, there is an attractive tail in Poland, similar to what we have experienced in Romania, with independent stores, representing then a total market opportunity of approximately 5,000 machines or more, where we already have a dozen preferred supplier agreements at hand. However, the timing of sales into this segment can follow a trend as what we have seen in Romania, meaning that if they take that the revenue will come over a period of time after the market has gone live. Another new market activity worth mentioning is the ramp-up of volume in Tasmania, as well as continued contribution from Romania and Austria.
Speaker #2: We already have a dozen preferred supplier agreements at hand. However, the timing of sales into this segment can follow a trend similar to what we have seen in Romania.
Speaker #2: Meaning that if they take that, the revenue will come over a period of time, after the market has gone live. And other new market activity worth mentioning is the ramp-up of volume in Tasmania.
Speaker #2: As well as continued contribution from Romania and Austria. And in addition, we will have the full-year effect from KLINK, the company that we acquired in September, in 2025.
Eva Sagemo: In addition, we will have the full year effect from CLYNK, the company that we acquired in September 2025, expected to come in at around EUR 25 million in revenues for 2026. Then for gross margins in collection, it should continue to stay above 40%, but quarterly variations may occur depending on the sales mix between the quarters, meaning in quarters when we sell more equipment, the gross margin will be normally lower. We expect continued good cost control in collection. However, we might have OpEx variations between the quarters, depending on investments into new markets.
Speaker #2: Expected to come in at around €25 million in revenues for 2026. And then for gross margins in Collection, it should continue to stay above 40%.
Speaker #2: But the quarterly variations may occur depending on the sales mix between the quarters. Meaning, in quarters when we sell more equipment, the gross margin will normally be lower.
Speaker #2: We expect continued good cost control in Collection. However, we might have OPEX variations between the quarters, depending on investments into new markets.
Speaker #2: And when it comes to investments into new markets, this is where the ramp-up for OPEX run rate comes in. And we estimate that to be at around €20 million for the full year.
Eva Sagemo: When it comes to investment into new markets, this is where the ramp up for OpEx run rate comes in, and we estimate that to be at around EUR 20 million for the full year, so the same level as we have had in 2025. Then over to the outlook for recycling, and as Tove mentioned, despite the belief in the strong long-term drivers, like regulation and the demand for recycled materials, the market is currently facing challenges. As a result of that, timing of orders in recycling is uncertain, and this challenging environment is expected to continue throughout this year and then possibly into 2027.
Speaker #2: So the same level as we have had in 2025. And then over to the outlook for recycling. And as Tove mentioned, despite the
Speaker #1: The believe in the strong , in the strong , long term drivers like regulation and the demand for recycled materials . The market is currently facing a challenges and as a result of that timing of orders in recycling is uncertain , and this challenging environment is expected to continue throughout this year .
Speaker #1: And then possibly into 2027 . And we have taken measures to restore our profitability already announced this week where the target is to come back to .
Eva Sagemo: We have taken measures to restore our profitability already, announced this week, where the target is to come back to EBITDA, an EBITDA margin above 20% as soon as possible. With the cost savings program that we have announced, we target to save a gross EUR 16 million as an annual run rate, and that will have a full effect in 2027. The cost of that will be approximately EUR 15 million. The cost saving will be approximately 1/3 in COGS and 2/3 in OpEx. We expect the savings to be gradually implemented in the year, so more towards the end of 2026, as it takes 3 to 6 months to execute on the program.
Speaker #1: EBITDA , an EBITDA margin above 20% as soon as possible . And with the cost savings program that we have announced , we target to save a gross €16 million as an annual run rate , and that will have a full effect in 2027 .
Speaker #1: And the cost of that will be approximately €15 million. And the cost saving will be approximately one third in COGS and two thirds in OpEx.
Speaker #1: And we expect the savings to be gradually implemented in the year, so more towards the end of 2026, as it takes three to six months to execute on the program.
Speaker #1: And that means that we will have approximately 50% of the savings as an effect in 2026. And then, looking into the coming quarter, we estimate a conversion ratio of 40% of the backlog as revenue in Q2 and Q1.
Eva Sagemo: That means that we will have approximately 50% of the savings as an effect in 2026. Then looking into the coming quarter, we estimate a conversion ratio 40% of the backlog as revenue in Q1. With the market uncertainty, it's important to mention that there is a risk that orders may be postponed over quarters for recycling. As we know, volumes and product mix impact the gross margin in recycling. In 2025, we have had lower volumes than previous years, and in combination with a higher share of metal orders being delivered, these two factors impacts the overall margin in 2025. Then looking into Q1 and the conversion ratio that we now have indicated of 40%, the volumes are estimated to be on the lower end.
Speaker #1: And when the market uncertainty, it's important to mention that there is a risk that orders may be postponed over quarters for recycling.
Speaker #1: And as we know, volumes and product mix impact the gross margin in Recycling. And in 2025, we have had lower volumes than previous years.
Speaker #1: And in combination with a higher share of metal orders being delivered , delivered these to factors impact the overall margin in in 2025 and then looking into Q1 and the conversion ratio that we now have indicated of 40% , the volumes are estimated to be on the lower end and in the combination with product mix in the order backlog .
Eva Sagemo: In the combination with product mix, in the order backlog, this will have an impact on the margin for Recycling. For Food, the outlook in Food, here, the drivers are the automation and higher standard for food quality and safety, and that creates new opportunities for our business division, Food. Although the market has now normalized, macroeconomic uncertainty may still influence customers' willingness to invest. Food growth, revenue growth for 2026 is projected to reach mid to high single digits. Looking into Q1, we estimate a conversion ratio of 55% based on the order backlog ending the year.
Speaker #1: This will have an impact on the margin for recycling and for food. The outlook is food here. The drivers are the automation and higher standards for food quality and safety, and that creates new opportunities for our business division.
Speaker #1: Food . And although the market has now normalized , macroeconomic uncertainty may still influence customers willingness to invest , food growth , revenue growth for 2026 is projected to reach mid to high single digits And looking into Q1 , we estimate a conversion ratio of 55% based on the order backlog and ending the year , and then the restructuring and cost reduction program has improved .
Eva Sagemo: Then, the restructuring and cost reduction program has improved the gross margins in food, and in 2025, the product mix that we have sold less third-party equipment, in addition to release of accruals, have impacted the gross margin positively. For 2026, we expect the gross margin to remain in the mid-40s based on project and product in the order backlog. However, we might see quarterly variations dependent on volume, business, and product mix. We have delivered a robust EBITDA margin of 13% in 2025, which is ahead of our ambition to reach a mid-teen target by 2030. For 2026, we expect maintaining strong, strong performance in food with an EBITDA margin of approximately 12%. And, why 12%?
Speaker #1: The gross margins in food . And in 2025 , the product mix that we have sold less third party equipment . In addition to release of accruals , have impacted the gross margin positively .
Speaker #1: And for 2026, we expect the gross margin to remain in the mid-40s based on project and product in the order backlog.
Speaker #1: However , we might see quarterly variations dependent on volume , business and product mix , and we have delivered a robust EBITDA margin of 13% in 2025 , which is ahead of our ambition to reach a mid teen target by 2030 .
Speaker #1: And for 2026 , we expect maintaining strong , strong performance in food with an EBITDA margin of approximately 12% and y 12% . The outlook the outlook builds on the positive momentum from 2025 , but we anticipate changes in the product mix and an increase of third party equipment sales , especially given the large orders that we are that we have in the order backlog , is that is going to be delivered into to 2026 .
Eva Sagemo: The outlook builds on the positive momentum from 2025, but we anticipate changes in the product mix and an increase of third-party equipment sales, especially given the large orders that we have in the order backlog, if that is going to be delivered into 2026. And then over to Horizon and the outlook, that is where we have the venture activities, Feedstock and Reuse, and also C-Trace. And C-Trace have delivered a strong year in 2025, with double-digit growth in EBITDA above 20%, and which is then projected to continue into 2026.
Speaker #1: And then over to horizon and the outlook . That is where we have the events or activities . Facebook and Reuse , and also see trace and see trace have delivered a strong year in 2025 with with the double digit growth in EBITDA above 20% and which is then projected to continue into 2026 .
Speaker #1: And for feedstock , it's all about ramping up the capacity at Omre , where we plan to increase it to now , two thirds of full capacity , and we expect a positive contribution in 2026 from the plant , given the successful capacity ramp up and also current market prices , and then , as Travis said , a positive EBITDA in 2027 already .
Eva Sagemo: And for Feedstock, it's all about ramping up the capacity at Omra, where we plan to increase it to now two-thirds of full capacity, and we expect a positive EBITDA contribution in 2026 from the Omra plant, given the successful capacity ramp-up and also current market prices. And then, as Tove said, a positive EBITDA in 2027 already. And then with the underlying OpEx for Feedstock and Reuse, for business building, that is expected to remain in line with 2025 levels, but we will have an increase in cost related to Omra, with ramping up Omra and also C-Trace due to higher activity levels. So, the OpEx run rate estimated for Horizon at a total is estimated to be around EUR 40 million for the full year 2026.
Speaker #1: And then, with the underlying opex for feedstock and reuse for business building, that is expected to remain in line with 2025 levels.
Speaker #1: But we will have an increase in costs related to Umra with ramping up Umra, and also see TRACE due to higher activity levels.
Speaker #1: So the OpEx run rate estimated for horizon as a total is estimated to be around €40 million . For the full year 2026 , and then lastly on CapEx , the total CapEx for the year is estimated at approximately €100 million , and that will be primarily directed towards our core divisions , meaning collection , food and recycling .
Eva Sagemo: Then lastly, on CapEx, the total CapEx for the year is estimated at approximately EUR 100 million, and that will be primarily directed towards our core divisions, meaning collection, food, and recycling. We do not expect large CapEx investments into Horizon, explained also by the remaining investment in the German plant. The Feedstock plant is now put on hold. With that, I think we end on the financial side for Daniel and can move into Q&A.
Speaker #1: And we do not expect large CapEx investments into Horizon. Also, with the remaining investments in the German plant, the feedstock plant is now put on hold.
Speaker #1: So with that, I think we end on the financial side for Daniel, and can move into Q&A.
Speaker #2: Thank you . And thank you , Tobi . We will then take questions , please try to limit yourself to 1 to 2 questions per turn .
Daniel Sundahl: Thank you, Eva, and thank you, Tove. We will then take questions. Please try to limit yourself to one to two questions per turn. I see that we have a few questions coming in. The first one coming in from Elliot Jones at Danske Bank. Please go ahead, Elliot.
Speaker #2: And I see that we have a few questions coming in. The first one coming in from Elliot Jones at KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Elliot
Speaker #3: Yeah . Morning , guys . Congrats on the results this morning . Just a couple of things for me on collection . Yeah , you mentioned this in the outlook .
Elliott Jones: Yeah. Morning, guys, congrats on the results this morning. Just a couple of things for me. On collection, yeah, you mentioned this in the outlook that kind of orders equate to EUR 100 million in sales in 2026, and I like that. It's just current orders that you've received, and maybe obviously more to come from Poland alone and the others, but can you just help us understand kind of in general what the timeline is between, you know, you receiving orders and then being able to kind of deliver them just on a general basis?
Speaker #3: That kind of orders equate to €100 million in 2026. And I like that. It's just current orders that you've received.
Speaker #3: And maybe obviously more to come from from Poland alone and the others . But can you just help us understand kind of in general , what the time lag is between , you know , you receiving orders and then being able to to kind of deliver them just on a general basis .
Speaker #1: Yeah . On the general basis , it's it's I think it's I think we need to discuss more specific for Poland . Right .
Eva Sagemo: Yeah. On a general basis, that's it. I think we need to discuss more specifics for Poland, right? Because as Tove said in her note on collection, is that we have an installation plan for Poland with 100 machines per week, and that's kind of like the phase that we are now working according to. And as you know, we announced contracts during the fall, and that's what we are now delivering according to, and it's included in the EUR 100 million revenues on the current order base. So that includes Poland, Portugal, and Singapore.
Speaker #1: Because, as to the US said in her note on collection, is that we have an installation plan for Poland with 100 machines per week.
Speaker #1: And that's kind of like the the phase that we are now working according according to and as you know , we announced contracts during the fall and that's what we are now delivering .
Speaker #1: According to . And it's included in the €100 million . Revenues on the current order base . So that includes Poland , Portugal and Singapore .
Speaker #4: And if I can add, so also what we said, you know, is that in Poland we expect then deliveries on the existing contracts.
Tove Andersen: If I can add, so also what we said, you know, is that in Poland we expect then deliveries on the existing contracts first half of this year. And as Eva said, we have a dozen of frame agreements with the smaller retailers, which means that the frame agreement is there, so it's just a call-off, and that can be very quick. So a retailer can just order a machine, and it can be delivered, you know, a few weeks later. So on those, you have a very quick turnaround.
Speaker #4: First half of this year . And when I say , as I said , we have a dozen of frame agreements with the smaller retailers , which means that the frame agreement is there .
Speaker #4: So it’s just a call-off, and that can be very quick. So the retailer can just order the machine, it can be delivered, you know, a few weeks later.
Speaker #4: So on those, you have a very quick turnaround.
Speaker #3: Got it . And then also just a question on operational leverage in collection . Yeah . If you kind of look back all the way to kind of Germany , I know that Tomra kind of had a , an opex base that was able to be stable as revenue started to take off .
Elliott Jones: Got it. And then, also just a question on operational leverage in collection. Yeah, if you kind of look back, all the way to kind of Germany, I know, I know that TOMRA kind of had a, an OpEx base that was able to be stable as revenue started to, to take off, and obviously, you've just made comments on ramp-up costs this year being north of EUR 20 million, as in, in 2025. You say EUR 20 million in 2026. So I just wanna kind of, kind of test, like, beyond 2026, when, when there's more new markets coming, how do you stand with regards, with regards to that?
Speaker #3: And obviously you've just made comments on ramp up costs this year . Being north of €20 million , as in in 2025 , you say 20,000,000 in 2026 .
Speaker #3: I just want to kind of kind of test like beyond 2026 , when when there's more new markets coming . How do you stand with regards with regards to that ?
Speaker #3: Do you expect any kind of big jumps in opex, or would you say that along the way you have been investing in regions such as France and Italy and the like already?
Elliott Jones: Do you expect any kind of big jumps in OpEx, or would you say that along the way you have been investing in regions such as France and Italy and the like, already?
Speaker #4: Yeah . So the way first of all , we're doing quite a bit now on structuring Europe in a good way , in collection , we just reorganized the whole region to make sure that we are really set up to run that efficiently as a new markets are coming along on the kind of backbone , the operational backbone , with supply chain procurement , production , etc.
Tove Andersen: Yeah. So, first of all, we're doing quite a bit now on structuring Europe in a good way. In collection, we just reorganized the whole region to make sure that we are really set up to run that efficiently as the new markets are coming along. On the kind of backbone, the operational backbone, the supply chain, procurement, production, et cetera, is well set up to handle then the growth. But what you have to expect that each time a new market comes, we need salespeople on the ground, we need service people on the ground. So of course, there will be some OpEx coming in in every market, while at the same time we are working on ensuring that we have as much operating leverage as we can.
Speaker #4: is well set up to handle. Then the growth. But what you have to expect is that each time a new market comes, we need salespeople on the ground.
Speaker #4: We need service people on the ground . So of course there will be some opex coming in in every market . But at the same time , we're working on ensuring that we have as much operating leverage as we can
Speaker #3: Okay. Thanks a lot, guys.
Fabian Jørgensen: Okay. Thanks a lot, guys.
Speaker #2: Thank you. And the next question is coming from Adela at Jefferies. Please go ahead, Adela.
Daniel Sundahl: Thank you. The next question is coming from Adela Dashian at Jefferies. Please go ahead, Adela.
Speaker #5: Thank you . Daniel . Good morning everyone Yeah . If we firstly could start on collection , I appreciate the the guidance of 100 million revenue contribution in 2026 from the newer markets , but when I plug that into my model , I still have a difficult time getting up to double digit growth rates for for the full year , for collection .
Adela Dashian: Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. Yeah, if we firstly could start on collection, I appreciate the guidance of EUR 100 million revenue contribution in 2026 from the newer markets. But when I plug that into my model, I still have a difficult time getting up to a double-digit growth rate for the full year for collection, given that existing markets are growing by mid-single digits. So could you just explain if you-- and I guess also with UK now not coming live until late 2027, could you explain, like, what's the how you will achieve double-digit growth, which is what consensus is assuming right now?
Speaker #5: Given that the existing markets are growing by mid-single digits, could you just explain a few? And I guess also, with the UK now not coming live until late 2027?
Speaker #5: Could you explain like what's the how you will achieve double digit growth , which is what consensus is assuming right now .
Speaker #4: So, as Eva explained, we are from the existing contract. So, in Poland, that is the large retailers with existing contracts.
Tove Andersen: As Eva explained, so we are from the existing contracts. In Poland, that is the large retailers with existing contracts. The contracts we have in Portugal and Singapore, that represent EUR 100 million to be delivered, and most of that then, first half of this year. Where we land the year will then depend on additional sales into these markets and, additional sales into Romania and Austria.
Speaker #4: The contracts we have in Portugal and Singapore, that's 100 million to be delivered. And most of that then, first half of this year.
Speaker #4: Where we end the year will then depend on additional sales into these markets, and additional sales into Romania and Austria.
Speaker #5: I see okay , so it's just based on those confirmed orders okay . Makes sense on on on recycling , I'm assuming that there was no it was a quite nice beat versus expectations .
Adela Dashian: I see. Okay, so it's just based on those confirmed orders. Okay, makes sense. On recycling, I'm assuming that there was no... It was a quite nice beat versus expectations, but I'm assuming that the restructuring effects, I mean, it's very, very recent—these were announced, so no effect of that in Q4. So could you explain, was this a sequential better mix as well that drove the results in the quarter? And also under restructuring costs, what should the phasing be in the quarters?
Speaker #5: But I'm assuming that the the restructuring effects I mean it's very , very recent . These were now so no effect of that in Q4 .
Speaker #5: So could you explain was it a sequential better mix as well that drove the the the results in the quarter . And also under restructuring costs , what should the facing be in the quarters ?
Speaker #1: Yeah , I'm not sure if I got the first question , Adela , but I can answer the the other one and then maybe Toby can fill in if she , if she , if she got the first one .
Eva Sagemo: Yeah, I'm not sure if I got the first question, Adela, but I can answer the other one, and then maybe Tove can fill in if she got the first one. So on the restructuring cost, it's estimated to come in in Q2 and Q3 at large, of course, depending on how this restructuring program will go into effect in the year.
Speaker #1: So on the restructuring cost , it will be it's , it's estimated to come in and in Q2 and Q3 at at large .
Speaker #1: Of course, depending on how this restructuring program will go into effect in the year. Yeah.
Speaker #4: And we had $1 million in restructuring costs in Q4. So that was the only effect in Q4 from the restructuring.
Tove Andersen: Yeah, and we had EUR 1 million in restructuring cost in Q4.
Eva Sagemo: Q4, yeah.
Tove Andersen: That was the only effect in Q4 from the restructuring.
Adela Dashian: Mm.
Speaker #5: And sure . And maybe
Daniel Sundahl: And on the-
Adela Dashian: Sure, and maybe-
Speaker #2: Yeah , sorry . On the on recycling , the mix , the mix that we delivered was more normalized into waste . But however , the order backlog still has a higher share of of metals in it to be delivered going forward .
Daniel Sundahl: Yeah, sorry, Adela.
Adela Dashian: Yeah, just-
Daniel Sundahl: On recycling, the mix that we delivered was more normalized into waste.
Adela Dashian: Yeah.
Daniel Sundahl: However, the order backlog still has a higher share of metals in it to be delivered, going forward.
Speaker #5: Okay, I see. Thank you so much.
Adela Dashian: Okay, I see. Thank you so much.
Speaker #2: Good . Okay . Thank you . Adela . The next question will come from Fabian Jurgensen at Pareto . Please go ahead . Fabian
Daniel Sundahl: Good. Okay, thank you, Adela. The next question will come from Fabian Jørgensen at Pareto. Please go ahead, Fabian.
Speaker #6: Thank you. All right. If we talk Spain and UK, facing Spain is obviously a bit more uncertain. We say that the RFPs for UK have already started.
Fabian Jørgensen: Thank you. All right, if we talk Spain and UK facing, Spain is obviously a bit more uncertain. We say that the RFPs for UK have already started. Spain is a much more consolidated market than, for example, Poland, Romania, where you have the long tail. And when do you expect the capacity to be all rolled out in the UK? Is this a play where you expect most to be in place by October, meaning that sales could start in late 2026? And how should we think about that?
Speaker #6: Spain is a much more consolidated market than, for example, Poland or Romania, where you have the long tail. And when do you expect the capacity to be all rolled out in the UK?
Speaker #6: Is this a play where you expect most to be in place by October, meaning that sales could start in late 2026? And how should we think about that?
Speaker #4: So we expect that the UK start will be a hard launch. That's the current expectation. You know that in Poland we have a soft launch.
Tove Andersen: So we expect that the UK start will be a hard launch. That's the current expectation. You know that in Poland, we had a soft launch. They had a three-month, you know, grace period. We don't expect that to happen in the UK. It can change, but at least that's what is communicated, which means that you should expect a significant portion of the installation to happen before the go live date.
Speaker #4: They had a three month , you know , grace period . We don't expect that to happen in the UK . It can change .
Speaker #4: But at least that's what is communicated. Which means that you should expect a significant portion of the installation to happen before the go-live date.
Speaker #6: Exactly. Okay. And so, I think one of the most important things to note in the report is the margins here. Food was obviously very great.
Fabian Jørgensen: Exactly. Okay. And so, I think one of the most important things to note in the report is the margins here. Food was obviously very great, again, similarly to Q2. But also on collection, you state that the added cost for 2026 is very limited. And if you look at consensus estimates now, what they basically assume for 2027 is that OpEx and collection expand 30 to 40% relative to 2025. Is that way too high?
Speaker #6: Again , similarly to Q2 , but also on collection , you state that the added cost for 2026 is very limited . And if you look at consensus estimates now , what they basically see in for 2027 is that opex in collection expand 30 to 40% relative to 2025 .
Speaker #6: Is that way too high
Eva Sagemo: So on the OpEx for 2027, that's down the line, and we need to come back to that at a later point, Fabian. What we have said is that-
Speaker #1: So on the on the OpEx for 2027 , that's down the line . And we need to come back to that at a later point .
Speaker #1: Fabian, what we have said is—
Speaker #6: That does it make sense ? Does it make sense that it's up 30% ?
Fabian Jørgensen: But does it make sense that it's up 30%-
Speaker #1: It depends .
Eva Sagemo: It depends on-
Speaker #6: On business model . I think .
Fabian Jørgensen: -to your business model? Do you think so?
Speaker #1: So , yeah , I think the the level of opex depends on the activity in the , in the markets . Right . So what we what we are working according to is to have good cost control in collection and across the divisions that we have .
Eva Sagemo: Yeah, I think the level of the OpEx depends on the activity in the markets, right? So what we are working according to is to have good cost control in collection and across the divisions that we have. And then, of course, a large part of TOMRA Collection is related to existing markets. And then for new markets, we manage the activity going into new markets in a very prudent way. So cost will, of course, occur with going into new markets, but the levels we need to come back to.
Speaker #1: And then of course , a large part of collection is related to existing markets . And then for new markets , we manage the activity going into new markets in in a very prudent way .
Speaker #1: So cost will of course occur with going into new markets . But the levels we need to come back to .
Speaker #6: Okay. Cheers. Thank you.
Fabian Jørgensen: Okay, cheers. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Fabian. And the next question is coming in from Maria Decina at Barclays. Please go ahead, Maria.
Daniel Sundahl: Thank you, Fabian. The next question is coming in from Maria Dessina at Barclays. Please go ahead, Maria.
Speaker #7: Morning , guys . Thanks for taking my question . Just one from me , just to follow up on the product mix in recycling .
Maria Dessina: Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just one from me, just to follow up on the product mix in recycling. So, I know that there was some softness in the waste recovery, segment of recycling in 2025. Are you now saying that we're seeing that coming back, especially in the US? I know that there was some, sort of effects from the geopolitical backdrop. So yeah, just wondering where we're, where we're at on that.
Speaker #7: So, I know that there was some softness in the waste recovery segment of recycling in 2025. Are you now saying that we're seeing that coming back, especially in the US?
Speaker #7: I know that there was some sort of effects from the geopolitical backdrop . So , yeah , I'm just wondering where where we're at on that .
Speaker #1: Yeah . Not necessarily . So what we see in the quarter is , is a result of what we had in the order backlog for the year .
Tove Andersen: ... Yeah, not necessarily. So what we see in the quarter is a result of what we had in the order backlog for the year. And in Q4, we had more waste projects into the to be delivered to the P&L. So that's the reason we don't necessarily see an recovery in the waste segment because of that.
Speaker #1: And in Q4 , we had more waste projects into the to be delivered to the PNL . So that's the reason we don't necessarily see an recovery in the waste segment because of that .
Speaker #7: Okay, that's clear. Thank you so much.
Adela Dashian: Okay, that's clear. Thank you so much.
Speaker #2: Thank you . And we will take two final questions . One from Marcus Heiberg at CIB , please go ahead . Marcus You're muted You're still muted .
Daniel Sundahl: Thank you, and we will take two final questions, one from Marcus Heiberg at SEB. Please go ahead, Marcus. You're muted. You're still muted, Marcus.
Speaker #2: The Marcus
Speaker #8: Do you hear me now.
Markus Heiberg: Do you hear me now?
Speaker #2: Now we hear you .
Daniel Sundahl: Now we hear you.
Speaker #8: Yeah sorry . So a two part question on the competitive position in recycling . So the first one is how do you see the competition there .
Markus Heiberg: Sorry. So a two-parted question on the competitive position in recycling. So the first one is: how do you see the competition there now as the market is softer in plastics? Are you seeing higher competition? And also maybe in metals, are you seeing any changes there? And the second part of that question is: now, as you're downscaling your cost base, are you seeing that impacting your own product roadmaps? And I imagine there are some opportunities there in AI and what's happening there. So some discussions on that would be interesting.
Speaker #8: Now as the market is softer in plastics . Are you seeing higher competition . And also maybe in metals . Are you seeing any any changes there .
Speaker #8: And the second part of that question is, now as you are downscaling your cost base, are you seeing that impacting your own product roadmaps?
Speaker #8: And I imagine there are some opportunities there in AI and what's happening there. So, some discussions on that would be interesting.
Speaker #4: Yeah. So, first of all, it's clear that our competitors are experiencing exactly the same as us, so we are not losing market share.
Tove Andersen: Yeah. So first of all, it's clear that our competitors are experiencing exactly the same as us. So where we are not losing market share, it is the market that is down. But that also means, of course, it becomes very competitive on the orders that are out there. So, in a situation like this, yes, there is pressure on margins, but we are still, you know, I feel, in a very good competitive situation versus the others. When we are... What we are doing is right-sizing the organization. We have reduced the turnover with 18%. We are not 100% sure when it will come back.
Speaker #4: It is the is down . But that also means of course it becomes very competitive on the orders that are out there . So in a situation like this , yes , there are pressure on margins , but we are still , you know , I feel in a very good competitive situation versus the others when we are what we are doing is right sizing the organization .
Speaker #4: We have reduced the turnover with 18% . We are not 100% sure when it when it will come back , it will come back , but when it will come back .
Tove Andersen: It will come back, but when it will come back, so we need to take down our organization to meet the current market sentiment, which means that we are reducing all over in recycling, including that we are reducing on some of our innovation activities, because also we see that the market will not be there to take those innovations, and we can get really valuable with short term. At the same time, we have been very focused on making sure that we don't take out things that will make us less competitive when the market comes back.
Speaker #4: So we need to take down our organization to meet the current market sentiment , which means that we are reducing all over in recycling , including that we are reducing on some of our innovation activities , because also we see that the market will not be there to take take those innovations and we can get really valuable with short term at the same time , we are been very focused on making sure that we don't take out things that will make us less competitive when the market comes back .
Speaker #4: So this is , of course , a balance . We believe that we have the balance right , which means that we are still investing into our innovation portfolio , including AI .
Tove Andersen: So this is, of course, a balance, so we believe that we have the balance right, which means that we are still investing into our innovation portfolio, including AI, with the new organization, or the new manning, that we will have them, as of mid this year.
Speaker #4: With the new organization, or the new mandate that we will have for them, as of mid this year.
Speaker #8: Thank you .
Markus Heiberg: Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Marcus. We had one last, but no longer in the queue. So I think, with that, we have reached the end of today's presentation.
Daniel Sundahl: Thank you, Marcus. We had one last, but no longer in the queue, so I think with that, we have reached the end of today's presentation. Thank you very much for tuning in. The next time we will be here is on 24 April for our Q1 results, the day after our AGM. Looking forward to seeing you then. Until then, have a nice day, and goodbye.
Speaker #2: Thank you very much for tuning in. The next time we will be here is on the 24th of April for our Q1 results.